Looking Ahead to Tesla - The Path of the AI Terminal King

This Thursday, December 12, Tesla's stock price broke through the peak of $414.49 in November 2021, reaching a new historical high of $429.3, attracting market attention. This also caused Musk's personal net worth to surge to $439.2 billion, making him the first person in the world to exceed a net worth of $400 billion. Today, Tesla's stock price remains high, and market transactions continue to be highly active. Tesla started from the automotive business and gradually expanded from high-end models to Model S/X, Model 3/Y, FSD, energy storage, photovoltaic, and supercharging product lines. With the synergistic efforts of high-end models (Model S/X) and mass-market models (Model 3/Y), as well as the expansion of the fully autonomous driving (FSD) software and energy storage product lines, it has maintained strong revenue and profitability. In 2023, the company's annual revenue is expected to reach $96.773 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. The gross margin is expected to be 18.44%, with a net profit of $1.497 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.44%. In the third quarter of 2024, revenue is expected to reach $25.182 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%. The gross margin is further expected to rise to 19.84%, with a net profit of $2.167 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%. Currently, FSD is driving a new growth curve, with software business expected to surpass vehicle business by 2025: Tesla's fully autonomous driving (FSD) system has entered a large-scale promotion phase, with FSD subscription service revenue reaching $732.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. The company plans to further enhance user experience and stickiness by continuously optimizing FSD capabilities (such as smart summon function), accelerating iteration frequency, and enriching the functional ecosystem. In addition, the integration of FSD in new models such as Cybertruck is expected to drive both sales and profit growth, with related revenue expected to exceed vehicle business by 2025, becoming Tesla's new core growth point. Review: Four Stages of Tesla's Development 2010-2016: Introduction of Model S/X High-End Vehicles Tesla entered the high-end electric vehicle market relying on Model S/X, but faced production and cost pressures in the early product positioning. The company successfully attracted investors' attention by positioning itself as "in Silicon Valley, not a traditional automaker," growing from a market value of less than $1.8 billion to $35 billion, achieving about 18 times growth in six years. 2017-2018: Promotion of Model 3 and Cost-Performance Route In 2017, Tesla launched Model 3, entering the mid-range market at a more affordable price, opening the door to the mass market. With the successful delivery of Model 3, the company's sales and market recognition rapidly increased, further consolidating its leadership position in the new energy vehicle industry 2019-2021: Rapid Expansion Period for Model Y and FSD Features In 2019, Tesla launched the cost-effective Model Y, which not only further lowered the consumer threshold but also drove overall sales to rise rapidly. At the same time, the company made significant breakthroughs in the development of FSD features, with software business gradually becoming an important growth point for profits, and market valuation quickly surpassing $90 billion during this phase. 2023-2024: Production Cost Optimization and Deepening Software Subscription Services On the production side, the company successfully optimized its cost structure through economies of scale and technological upgrades, reducing forward PE to less than 20 times. On the product side, the launch of new models such as Cybertruck and the increase in FSD software service revenue are enabling Tesla to gradually transition from "hardware-driven" to "software-enabled," expanding greater imaginative space for future development. Future Outlook Sales Targets and Profitability Further Improvement Tesla expects sales to exceed 2 million units by 2025, doubling from 2023. With continuous optimization of technology upgrades and cost control, the profitability of the vehicle business will continue to steadily improve, providing the company with stable cash flow. Software Business and Subscription Model Become Core Driving Forces Tesla's software ecosystem, especially the FSD features, is becoming the key to future growth. As user recognition gradually increases, the market penetration rate of FSD subscription services will rise rapidly, and it is expected that by 2025, software revenue will surpass vehicle business revenue, becoming the main source of the company's profits. New Products Drive the Company into a New Valuation Stage The launch of new models such as Cybertruck and Semi will further enrich Tesla's product line and enhance the company's brand strength. The market generally expects Tesla's market value to potentially exceed $1 trillion in the medium to long term.