Advance opening of Double 11 leads to a decline in consumption in November, U.S. consumption is overestimated by the market, and the upward space for the dollar is limited --- 1218 Macro Dehydration

In November, China's retail sales grew by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 3.9 trillion yuan, but e-commerce sales fell by 2.7% year-on-year. The U.S. retail data for November showed mixed results, with core retail data weakening, and the market overestimating future inflation risks, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts may be faster than expected. It is anticipated that the U.S. dollar index will fluctuate in the range of 100-105 in the short term, and may depreciate in the long term due to the risk of twin deficits