Japan's economy shows mixed signals: rising prices, recovering consumption, and industrial decline

The recovery process of the Japanese economy seems to be stumbling... On December 27th, Friday, Japan's latest economic data was "mixed," with inflation and retail sales showing healthy growth, but industrial production declining. According to data released by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs, the CPI in Tokyo (excluding fresh food) rose 2.4% year-on-year in December, up from 2.2% in November, but slightly lower than economists' expectations of 2.5%. The inflation data released in November had already shown signs of warming, hovering around the Bank of Japan's 2% target level, supporting market expectations for further interest rate hikes. Despite rising prices, consumption continues to recover. Another report showed that retail sales in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up from 1.3% in October. Economists believe this may have been influenced by the holiday season and cooler weather, stimulating consumer demand for winter clothing and goods. At the same time, the ongoing tightness in the labor market is also a positive signal, indicating upward pressure on wages, with the unemployment rate remaining at 2.5% in November, unchanged from the previous month. Analysts believe that these data depict the wage-price dynamics that the Bank of Japan hopes to see, but uncertainties in the global economy still exist, casting a shadow over Japan's industrial production. Japan's industrial production fell 2.3% month-on-month in November, compared to a growth of 2.8% in October. Companies expect output to grow by 2.1% in December and by 1.3% in January. It is worth noting that last week, the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates at the monetary policy meeting and stated that the economy is developing in line with its expectations. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the time: "One of the reasons for this month's decision to hold steady is the uncertainty in the overseas economy, especially the uncertainty surrounding the Trump 2.0 administration. If President Trump imposes higher tariffs on foreign goods, it will affect Japan's exports and production." As a result, the yen fell to a five-month low against the dollar today, briefly reaching 158, and is currently hovering around a low of 157.75. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk