Next year, major U.S. banks will welcome a "harvest" year, with every business "flourishing everywhere"?

Global major banks are expected to have a profitable year. At the last FOMC meeting of this year, the Federal Reserve released a "hawkish" signal, stating that due to inflation being stickier than expected, it is anticipated that there will only be two rate cuts next year. This means that the U.S. benchmark interest rate is likely to remain at a high level for a longer period, which is expected to expand banks' net interest margins, thereby supporting loan and deposit businesses as the main source of income. Rate cut expectations converge, banks are likely to continue benefiting from expanded net interest margins As the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may slow down next year, a steeper yield curve will continue to support banks' net interest margin earnings. Visible Alpha's survey results of analysts also show that global top banks' revenues across all sectors (excluding FICC trading) are expected to see their first growth since 2021 next year. Additionally, as of early December, the yield on three-month U.S. Treasury bills fell below the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 2022, which may soon spark new enthusiasm for fixed-income products. Some analysts also indicated that Trump, who will take office next year, is expected to relax regulatory scrutiny on the financial sector, which is likely to bring favorable conditions to the banking industry. The U.S. banking sector benefited from last year's high interest rate cycle. According to Visible Alpha, in 2023, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to historical highs, net interest margins grew by 11%, leading to a surge in large banks' revenues. However, in 2024, due to major global central banks beginning to cut rates this year, the banking sector's net interest income has been impacted, with revenues from commercial and wealth management businesses and trading activities all affected, and the performance of government bonds and other interest rate-related products has been lukewarm. Nevertheless, bank stocks are still performing well in 2024. Data shows that the return rates of bank subcomponents in the S&P 500 Index and the STOXX Europe 600 Index reached 35% and 32%, respectively. When considering broader indices, these return rates are 25% and 6%