Oil prices rise for five consecutive days, energy stocks lead the rise in U.S. stocks, what is the market anticipating?

Recently, as oil prices continue to rise, U.S. energy stocks have also strengthened, becoming the biggest gainers of the week. As of Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose by 1% to $73.86 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.6% to $76.38 per barrel, both expected to reach new highs since October last year. The rise in oil prices is mainly due to market expectations that the incoming Trump administration will implement energy policies. Analysts believe that Trump may intensify sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, thereby reducing global crude oil supply. According to RBC Capital Markets' forecast, related sanctions could reduce global daily crude oil supply by 1 million barrels. The increase in oil prices has driven energy stocks higher. As of January 3, BP's stock price has risen for nine consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 7.3%. Chevron's stock price also began to rebound after a decline in early December, rising 3% in the past week. However, analysts warn investors not to be overly optimistic about energy stocks. Notably, Trump has called for an increase in U.S. "oil drilling" to boost domestic oil production, which typically leads to oversupply and subsequently drives down oil prices. Roth MKM analyst Leo Mariani stated: "The main upside risk is the Trump administration implementing broader and stricter sanctions and other international issues." Henning Gloystein, head of the energy, climate, and resources department at Eurasia Group, also pointed out that an increase in crude oil supply by 2025, coupled with weak demand growth, could put downward pressure on oil prices, especially after OPEC begins to reduce the scale of production cuts. Analysts believe that while geopolitical factors may push oil prices higher in the short term, the fundamental supply and demand dynamics will be the key factors determining the industry's outlook in the long run. Currently, OPEC is still implementing production cuts of over 5 million barrels per day, which far exceeds Iran's total oil production. Historical experience shows that with such a large amount of idle capacity, it is difficult for energy stocks to outperform the market.