With only two weeks left until Trump's inauguration, the impact of his second term in the White House on the U.S. economy has become the focus of the entire market. Most economists believe that Trump is unlikely to significantly change the current economic trajectory and inflation levels, while the greater risk lies in Trump attempting to interfere with the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The American Economic Association meeting is one of the annual gatherings of top economists in the U.S., held last weekend in San Francisco. At this meeting, several prominent economists, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, reached a new consensus on the potential impacts of Trump's economic policies.
They believe that Trump's plans to expand tariffs, cut taxes, and restrict immigration may not trigger inflation as previously predicted. Meanwhile, these economists stated that any attempt by Trump to control the Federal Reserve would pose a real risk of reigniting price pressures, which is one of the reasons for Trump's election.
Bernanke stated:
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Trump's policies, regardless of their merits from a public finance perspective, may have little impact on inflation rates.
Regardless of which presidential candidate is elected, most expiring tax cuts are expected to continue, and given the rising national debt, Congress may have limited interest in further tax cuts.
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Bernanke also analyzed the impacts of immigration restrictions and tariff policies. He believes:
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While restricting immigration may push up wages, it also means a reduction in the population purchasing goods and services, which could alleviate price pressures.
As for the impact of tariffs, it is difficult to predict because we do not know whether Trump intends to implement them temporarily as a bargaining chip or to maintain them permanently.
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Other economists share similar views. Christina Romer, a former advisor to the Obama administration and a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, stated:
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In terms of the overall macroeconomy... you won't see drastic changes or frightening things. Risks still exist. For example, Trump may attempt to interfere with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's efforts to control inflation.
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Harvard University economics professor Jason Furman expressed some concern. He pointed out:
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Even if Trump's influence on Federal Reserve policy is limited over the next four years, he may pave the way for his successor to weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve through party nominations or other means.
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Harvard University economics professor Karen Dynan believes:
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While the proposed tariffs and immigration restrictions by Trump may pose obstacles to economic growth or push up inflation, consumer and business confidence has remained strong, thanks to the prospect of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising stock markets. The economy is likely to stay on track, continuing to move forward steadily and experiencing ongoing deflation
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Bernanke stated that the impact of Trump's policies on inflation may be minimal, and regardless of which presidential candidate is elected, most of the expiring tax cuts are expected to continue. In the context of rising national debt, Congress may have limited interest in further tax cuts

- As Trump approaches his inauguration, economists largely agree that his policies are unlikely to significantly alter the current economic trajectory or inflation levels.  
- The consensus among economists, including former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, suggests that Trump's proposed tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions may not lead to the inflation previously anticipated, but any attempt to influence the Fed could pose real risks.  
- Overall, while some concerns exist regarding Trump's impact on the Fed's independence and potential inflationary pressures, strong consumer and business confidence may help maintain economic stability.

Trump's policy "explodes" inflation? Bernanke: Limited impact, attempting to control the Federal Reserve is the real threat