Concerns over Russian supply have once again pushed up oil prices, but OPEC+'s idle capacity may put pressure on rising oil prices.
According to CCTV News on the 11th, on January 10 local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced a new round of sanctions on the Russian economy, involving the country's two largest oil companies and 183 oil tankers. Following this news, concerns about supply disruptions in the crude oil market surged, with international oil prices quickly climbing. Brent crude futures prices broke above $81 per barrel, and WTI crude prices reached a four-month high.
HSBC analysts Kim Fustier, Sadnan Ali, and others released a research report on the 14th stating, although the Biden administration's sanctions on the Russian oil industry may put pressure on supply, on the other hand, OPEC+ still has idle capacity, and it is expected that oil prices will not surge in 2025.
As of the time of writing, Brent crude prices rose 0.24% to $82.23 per barrel.
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WTI crude prices rose 0.27% to $78.92 per barrel.
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<h2>HSBC: Slight oversupply in the crude oil market this year, with prices around $73</h2>
Due to sanctions on the Russian oil industry and OPEC+'s extended production cut plans, HSBC believes that the expectation of oversupply in the global crude oil market in 2025 has narrowed, and in the report, it raised the forecast for Brent crude prices in 2025 from $70 per barrel to $73, while maintaining the long-term forecast for 2026 and 2027 at around $70 per barrel.
The report pointed out that OPEC+ currently has about 6.5 million barrels per day of idle capacity, which limits any rise in oil prices unless supply is severely disrupted.
HSBC expects that after several delays, OPEC+ will gradually increase production starting in April this year, with an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day over the 18 months ending September 2026. It is anticipated that there will be a slight oversupply in the market for the entire year of 2025 (100,000 barrels per day), and by 2026, the oversupply may expand to 1.4 million barrels per day.
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The report also added that OPEC+'s production cut plans are still challenged by supply growth from non-OPEC countries and slowing demand, with non-OPEC supply expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day and potentially continue to grow in the future.
In terms of demand, HSBC expects global demand growth in 2025 to rebound slightly to 1 million barrels per day, still maintaining a weak trend

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HSBC stated that OPEC+ currently has about 6.5 million barrels per day of idle capacity, which will limit any rise in oil prices unless supply is severely disrupted. A slight surplus in the crude oil market is expected in 2025 (100,000 barrels per day), with a Brent crude price target of around $73 per barrel

- Concerns over Russian oil supply have driven prices up, but OPEC+'s idle capacity may limit further increases.  
- Following new U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil sector, Brent crude prices rose above $81 per barrel, while WTI reached a four-month high.  
- HSBC predicts a slight oversupply in the oil market for 2025, adjusting Brent price forecasts to $73 per barrel, with OPEC+ expected to gradually increase production starting in April.

HSBC: Sanctions on Russia have driven up oil prices, but OPEC+ has plenty of idle production capacity