After a brief adjustment, gold prices have recently returned to a strong oscillating trend, with the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures price reaching a high of $2,735 per ounce, and the London spot gold price briefly surpassing the $2,700 per ounce mark, the first time in over a month.
Industry insiders indicate that the recent marginal adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations from tightening to easing has had a suppressive effect on gold prices in the short term, followed by a bullish impact.
Additionally, supported by factors such as market risk aversion, capital allocation, and central bank reserve demand, gold prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in 2025.
CICC released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2025, gold prices may still be in a bull market channel, with a potential breakthrough of $3,000 per ounce, and the RMB gold price may achieve a greater increase compared to the USD gold price. From Q1 2024 to Q3 2024, as cost increases slow down and gold prices rise further, the pre-tax profit per ounce is expected to stabilize and rebound, increasing from $692 to $1,019.
Looking ahead to Q4 2024 and 2025, CICC expects the pre-tax profit per ounce of global gold companies to further widen.
The current round of adjustments in the gold sector has been significant, and CICC believes that its valuation attractiveness is rising.
Taking the Huaxia CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Stock ETF as an example, from May 20, 2024, to January 14, 2025, the maximum drawdown was 25.48%, with an overall decline of 11.9%. In terms of valuation range, the current P/E TTM of major domestic gold companies has been digested to the range of 11-30x, with a central tendency of about 20x, which is at a relatively low percentile of the valuation range of 9%-20% since listing. Moreover, domestic gold listed companies have strong growth potential in domestic reserve increases and overseas mining mergers and acquisitions, making the valuation attractiveness of the gold sector rise.
Related companies in the gold and precious metals sector:
Zijin Mining (02899), SD-GOLD (01787), Zhaojin Mining (01818), Lingbao Gold (03330), China Gold International (02099), WanGuo Gold Group (03939), and Laopu Gold (06181), etc

600547

01787

601899

02899

Recently, gold prices have returned to a strong oscillating trend, with the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures price reaching a high of $2,735 per ounce, and the London spot gold price once standing above $2,700 per ounce. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations have shifted to a more accommodative stance, and it is anticipated that gold prices will continue in a bull market channel in 2025, potentially breaking through $3,000 per ounce. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that the valuation attractiveness of the gold sector has increased, with major gold companies' P/E TTM having adjusted to the range of 11-30x, including companies such as Zijin Mining and SD GOLD

- After a brief adjustment, gold prices have recently returned to a strong oscillating trend, with New York gold futures reaching a high of $2,735 per ounce.  
- Analysts indicate that the Federal Reserve's shift from tightening to easing monetary policy has initially suppressed and then supported gold prices, with expectations for 2025 suggesting a continuation of this trend, potentially surpassing $3,000 per ounce.  
- The valuation attractiveness of gold companies is increasing, as evidenced by the significant adjustments in the sector and the anticipated rise in pre-tax profits per ounce for global gold companies.

Zhitong

SD-GOLD

SD GOLD

Zijin Mining

ZIJIN MINING

ZHAOJIN MINING

Western Mining

Shandong Polymer

CHINAGOLDINTL

SPDR Gold Shares

CICC

LAOPU GOLD

ZHONGJIN GOLD

Baodi Mining

LINGBAO GOLD

Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Gold prices may still be in a bull market channel, and the valuation of gold stocks is awaiting repair (with concept stocks attached)