European Central Bank hawkish committee member Holzmann: A rate cut in January is not a done deal, the fight against inflation is not over yet

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stated in an interview that a rate cut by the European Central Bank in January is "not a done deal for me," and reiterated his previous views on the possible outcomes of next week's meeting. "Cutting rates in a situation where inflation is rising faster than expected, even if temporarily, carries the risk of damaging credibility," Holzmann said. Due to the current economic difficulties in the eurozone and inflation rates far below the peak in 2022, the market widely expects the European Central Bank to cut rates by 25 basis points at the January meeting, which would be the fifth rate cut since June 2024. However, Holzmann cautioned that the European Central Bank's decisions are data-driven, and the latest inflation data was significantly above 2% last December and may remain at that level in January. "I will participate in the discussion (about the January rate cut) with an open mind," Holzmann stated, "For me, a rate cut is by no means a foregone conclusion." More broadly, Holzmann's views suggest that he does not agree with several of his colleagues, including European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos and Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who believe that the fight against inflation is essentially over. This policy hawk indicated that if there is any difference, it is that he is now "more skeptical than at the beginning of the year" about whether inflation will stabilize near the central bank's 2% target by the end of the year. Holzmann noted, "Since we made our policy decision last December, we have seen unforeseen changes, with risks from colder weather, Ukraine halting the transit of Russian gas, and persistently high energy prices, leading to a much faster-than-expected decline in gas reserves." Additionally, Holzmann pointed out that the decline in the euro exchange rate is a mixed blessing, as it may mitigate the impact of potential tariffs from the U.S. but will also drive up import prices, including energy. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have also risen, reaching their highest level since August of last year last Wednesday. Therefore, Holzmann stated that he disagrees with the widespread expectation of a steady and regular rate cut by the European Central Bank in the first half of this year. He explained, "If you say that our current situation poses no threat to the anti-inflation path, then you can think that way. But considering the persistent inflation concerns, the answer is different."