Zhongyuan Real Estate: CCL slightly fell by 0.08% compared to last week, outlook for 2025 is that Hong Kong property prices will stop declining and stabilize

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Yang Mingyi, Senior Co-Director of the Research Department at Centaline Property, pointed out that the latest Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) is at 138.53 points, a slight decrease of 0.08% compared to last week. The low-price promotions for new developments continue to pressure the prices of second-hand properties in Hong Kong, coupled with fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and sparse transactions. The CCL has fallen for two consecutive weeks, totaling 0.52%. Next Thursday (January 30), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. On January 24, U.S. President Trump stated that he demands an immediate interest rate cut, and it is expected that rates will continue to be lowered. Additionally, recent easing of U.S.-China relations raises hopes for a gradual recovery in second-hand transactions after the Lunar New Year, allowing the Hong Kong property market to smoothly enter the seasonal peak. It is believed that the property prices announced in late February will show a clearer direction. The CCL remains at an over 8-year low, hovering around the level at the end of September 2016, with Hong Kong property prices temporarily rising by 0.65% in 2025. The index has risen 1.97% from the low of 135.86 points before the first interest rate cut in September 2024, but has fallen 27.60% from the historical high of 191.34 points in August 2021, and is down 3.14% from the low of 143.02 points before the withdrawal of stimulus in March 2024. On January 20, U.S. President Trump officially took office, and discussions on tariffs against China are still ongoing. The impact of the residential land tender in Mei Tin Road, Sha Tin on local second-hand property prices in Hong Kong will only begin to reflect in the CCL announced in mid-February 2025. Looking back at the trend of Hong Kong property prices during the Lunar New Year, the CCL reported 138.53 points in the last week of the Year of the Dragon, compared to 145.12 points in the last week of the Year of the Rabbit, indicating a 4.54% decline in property prices for the entire Year of the Dragon. Hong Kong property prices have fallen for three consecutive years, but the decline has significantly narrowed each year: down 15.09% in 2022 (Year of the Tiger), down 8.08% in 2023 (Year of the Rabbit), and down 4.54% in 2024 (Year of the Dragon). With interest rates continuing to decline and no significant adverse measures from the U.S. towards China, it is anticipated that property prices in 2025 (Year of the Snake) may stabilize and stop falling. This week, the Centaline City Large Estate Leading Index (CCL Mass) reported 138.90 points, a decrease of 0.08% compared to last week. The CCL (small and medium-sized units) reported 137.76 points, down 0.09% from last week. The CCL (large units) reported 142.34 points, down 0.08% from last week. CCL Mass, CCL (small and medium-sized units), and CCL (large units) have all declined for two weeks, with cumulative declines of 0.73%, 0.61%, and 0.12%, respectively. CCL Mass is at the level of mid-September 2016, while CCL (small and medium-sized units) and CCL (large units) are also at the level at the end of September 2016. Property prices in four districts have seen three declines and one increase over the past two weeks. The CCL_Mass for Hong Kong Island reported 140.48 points, down 1.36% from last week, with a total decline of 1.83% over two weeks. The CCL_Mass for New Territories West reported 126.55 points, down 0.53% from last week, with a total decline of 1.74% over four weeks. The CCL_Mass for Kowloon reported 133.64 points, down 0.06% from last week, with a total decline of 1.22% over two weeks. The CCL_Mass for New Territories East reported 153.36 points, up 2.29% from last week, with a total increase of 3.36% over three weeks. The indices for Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories West, and New Territories East are hovering around the levels of early August 2016, late August, late October, and mid-February 2017, respectively In addition, due to the Spring Festival holiday on the third day of the Lunar New Year, the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) will be suspended once on Friday, January 31