Tesla is about to release its fourth-quarter financial report. Morgan Stanley believes that the gross margin will be lower than general expectations, but from a broader perspective, such as robotics, Tesla has the potential to be an &#34;AI ETF.&#34;According to the latest report from Morgan Stanley, Tesla's fourth-quarter automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credits) is expected to reach around 15%, slightly lower than the sell-side consensus of 15.7%. This expectation reflects the market's ongoing concern about Tesla's cost control and product pricing, although Tesla's free cash flow is expected to be supported by a reduction in inventory.In addition, the market is highly focused on comments regarding Tesla management's future outlook, especially whether the delivery growth target of 20% to 30% for fiscal year 2024 will be reiterated. The progress of the Model Y &#34;Juniper&#34; project, the change rate of FSD (Full Self-Driving) capabilities, the expansion of AI infrastructure, the deployment targets for the Cybertruck, and milestones for the Optimus humanoid robot will all be key factors for investors to assess Tesla's long-term competitiveness.Morgan Stanley also mentioned that Tesla may hold an in-depth &#34;AI Day&#34; soon, which will be an important opportunity for it to showcase its AI technology strength.<h2>Humanoid Robot Hype: Tesla's AI &#34;ETF&#34; Potential</h2>The hype in the humanoid robot field is heating up, and Tesla, as a leader in robotics technology, has naturally become the focus of market attention.Morgan Stanley pointed out:<blockquote>Just six months after the release of the humanoid robot white paper, customer inquiries about humanoid robots have exceeded the total of all automotive OEMs, dealers, and suppliers covered. Behind this phenomenon is Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, who vigorously promoted physical AI and robotics technology in his CES speech, spending about 40 minutes explaining the potential of this field and injecting confidence into the market.</blockquote>Morgan Stanley views Tesla as an AI ETF, based on its DREAMS framework (Data, Reasoning, AI, Mobility, Services). With the continuous improvement of its reasoning clusters (including vehicles, robots, etc.) and AI/computing infrastructure (including xAI), Tesla is expected to achieve greater breakthroughs in the AI field.Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's development prospects in the AI field are far underestimated by the market, claiming that neither its target price of $430 nor the more optimistic $800 bull case scenario reflects Tesla's potential value in AI. As of last Friday's close, Tesla's stock price was $406 per share.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fdd77892-deaa-4891-b3f0-bb2284e65b71.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/fdd77892-deaa-4891-b3f0-bb2284e65b71.png"/><h2>Tesla and Electric Vehicle &#34;Monroe Doctrine&#34;: Dual Opportunities in Policy and Supply Chain</h2>From the perspective of the automotive industry, Tesla is facing an important policy and supply chain opportunity. Morgan Stanley believes:<blockquote>The Trump administration has committed to actively using tariffs to accelerate the return of AI technology and create a more de-risked supply chain. This policy direction is similar to the &#34;Monroe Doctrine&#34; of the 19th century, aimed at preventing external interference in America's core interestsIn the electric vehicle sector, this means that the U.S. government will encourage domestic suppliers of key technologies and support the development of manufacturing and supply chains.Tesla plays an important role in this process. As agent AI technology enters the physical world, the critical gap between reliable (onshore/nearsourcing) supply and widespread component demand will become increasingly apparent, attracting significant attention from investors and policymakers. With its leading position in the electric vehicle and autonomous driving fields, Tesla is expected to play a crucial role in filling the &#34;gaps&#34; in next-generation manufacturing and supply chains, thereby driving its growth and enhancing shareholder value.</blockquote>

TSLA

Morgan Stanley views Tesla as an AI ETF, with its DREAMS framework (Data, Reasoning, AI, Mobility, Services) at the forefront. Whether it's the target price of $430 or the more optimistic $800 bull case scenario, Tesla's potential value in AI has yet to be reflected

- Morgan Stanley anticipates Tesla's Q4 automotive gross margin will be around 15%, slightly below the consensus of 15.7%, reflecting ongoing market concerns about cost control and pricing.  
- The firm highlights Tesla's potential as an "AI ETF," driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and robotics, with significant investor interest in upcoming developments like the Cybertruck and Optimus robot.  
- Additionally, Tesla is positioned to benefit from U.S. policies promoting domestic supply chains, enhancing its role in the electric vehicle sector and potentially increasing shareholder value.

Not just "cars + robots," Morgan Stanley: We view Tesla as an "AI ETF"