Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts: The Top Ten Market Themes for the Next Five Years

Michael Hartnett, the chief strategist at Bank of America, known as "the most accurate analyst on Wall Street," outlines the ten key trends that will disrupt the global economy, technology, and social governance over the next five years in his latest report "Flow of Funds." He predicts that "technology will consume the world," with artificial intelligence driving industries into the 6.0 era. Breakthroughs in reasoning AI, ten-billion-level AI agents, and quantum computing will reshape production systems, with human intervention approaching zero and technology costs continuing to decline. However, the "peak of monopoly" also faces challenges, as the market dominance of the "seven tech giants" like Microsoft and Nvidia may weaken, and the diffusion of AI dividends along with global antitrust policies will force a reshuffling of industry patterns. The technological explosion also faces a "resource hunger." Issues such as the surging demand for computing chips, increased water consumption in data centers, and shortages of critical metals are becoming increasingly prominent, leading to resource bottlenecks in technological development. To address these challenges, a "global reconstruction wave" is imperative, with an estimated investment of $94 trillion needed by 2040 to fill the infrastructure gap, where smart grids, clean energy, and industrial IoT will become core battlegrounds. A "bond revival" is also on the horizon, as the government debt-to-GDP ratio breaks historical extremes, signaling the potential end of the "abandoning debt for stocks" era, with fiscal tightening triggering a reassessment of fixed-income asset values. At the same time, the "wave of populism" may persist, "protectionism and supply chain restructuring" will intensify, and a "generational consumption revolution" will occur... These ten trends are interwoven, indicating profound changes in the global economy, technology, and society over the next five years. Key points summarized by Wall Street Insights are as follows: Technology will consume the world: AI-driven industry 6.0 era, breakthroughs in reasoning AI, ten-billion-level AI agents, and quantum computing will reshape production systems, with human intervention nearing zero and technology costs continuously collapsing. Peak monopoly: The market value hegemony of "seven tech giants" like Microsoft and Nvidia is loosening, with the diffusion of AI dividends and global antitrust policies forcing a reshuffle of industry patterns. Digital security crisis: Deepfake attacks occur every five minutes, with cybercrime expected to reach $10.5 trillion by 2025 (equivalent to the world's third-largest economy), and retraining of one billion workers needed by 2030. Resource hunger: Demand for computing chips triples in three years, data centers' water consumption increases by 468 million gallons daily, and shortages of critical metals trigger trade conflicts, leading to a resource ceiling for technological explosions. Global reconstruction wave: $94 trillion needed by 2040 to fill the infrastructure gap, with smart grids, clean energy (annual investment may reach $5 trillion), and industrial IoT becoming core battlegrounds. Bond revival: Government debt-to-GDP ratio breaks historical extremes, signaling the end of the "abandoning debt for stocks" era, with fiscal tightening triggering a reassessment of fixed-income asset values. Wave of populism: 26 elections worldwide in 2024 may overturn ruling parties, with anti-immigration, reduced central bank independence, and fiscal divergence between the US and Europe becoming the new policy norm Protectionism and Supply Chain Restructuring: The technological competition among major powers has given rise to a wave of "nearshoring," with trade conflicts and industrial reshoring reshaping the global trade map. Generational Consumption Revolution: Generation Z (with a projected income of $36 trillion by 2030) and the silver-haired population (with annual consumption of $15 trillion) are driving an explosion in health, sustainability, and new economy consumption. Health is Wealth: AI will compress drug development cycles to 30 days, filling a gap of millions in healthcare; GLP-1 drugs will ignite a trillion-dollar health industry, leading to a comprehensive transformation of the consumption chain. 1. "Technology is Consuming the World" Agent-based AI + reasoning + rich simulation + embedded AI = Industry 6.0, which is minimizing human intervention. In the next five years, technology will usher us into a new phase. Driven by the AI revolution, we will see a dramatic drop in technology prices. We will witness AI integrating into every aspect of our lives. We will observe the game-changing role of AI in leapfrog innovation. Agent-based AI will impact the job market, and rich AI simulations will develop new products in healthcare, industry, and financial services. Furthermore, AI will interact with the physical environment to achieve the next generation of automation. Welcome to Industry 6.0—Minimizing Human Intervention The revolution of large language models (LLMs) in AI has accelerated the application of Industry 5.0, which aims to integrate a "human-centered" approach into industrial processes based on the digital era of Industry 4.0. Industry 5.0 emphasizes collaboration between humans and advanced technologies (such as AI-driven robots) to optimize workplace processes. Now, AI has permeated every aspect of our economy and lives, humanizing automation processes. This transition takes us from the humanized era (Industry 5.0) to Industry 6.0, where the goal is to create a fully integrated system based on next-generation technologies. Technological Economics: Technology Drives Itself to Lower Prices—Investments in automation, AI, and technology are comprehensively lowering prices and increasing returns. For example, in the past 20 years, hard drive capacity has increased over 20,000 times, while the price per gigabyte has dropped by 99%. The increasing deployment of technology to meet demand leads to price reductions. Subsequently, these technologies become cost-effective in new applications, further driving demand growth. "Reasoning AI": Adding Human Elements, a Step Ahead of AGI—The capabilities of AI models are continuously expanding to include tasks that require reasoning. So far, all LLMs use algorithms to complete tasks that can be solved through quick thinking, and due to their emergent properties, their versions are becoming increasingly complex However, new versions of models, such as OpenAI's o1 and o3 models, can now break down complex questions into independent tasks and hypotheses, using "reasoning" to arrive at solutions—similar to human thinking. Agent-based Artificial Intelligence: A World Where Trillions of AI Agents Work Alongside Us—Agent-based artificial intelligence is the next big trend in the commercialization of AI models. It can leverage reasoning capabilities and, based on that, select and use the right tools to complete assigned tasks. At our "Transformative World Conference," Steve Brown cited examples such as marketing plans or travel bookings. He described AI agents as a way to scale organizations and transform company workforces, as well as their ability to interact with other AI agents, such as obtaining approvals or reviews (like legal or compliance). In his view, this does not mean that human employees will be completely removed from the loop, but rather that AI agents can become partners or subordinates to humans. Rich AI Simulations are Transforming Various Industries—Rich AI simulations are being used for other innovations; for example, simulations for drug discovery and material breakthroughs. The crystals discovered with the help of AI are 45 times more than those known to humans. Using AI for drug discovery helps find candidate drugs for liver cancer treatment in just 30 days. Many of our everyday products are complex, and over time, designers have begun to rely on computer-driven simulations, but these simulations often take time to run. Even when possibilities are found, additional simulations are needed to ensure safety. AI simulations combine quantum physics and deep learning technologies, enabling rapid and efficient sampling of vast datasets. AI and simulation technologies can perform billions of simulations on molecular structures, making slight modifications each time to determine which structure is optimal. Now, we can complete this task in weeks or months, whereas it would take 10 years in the physical world. Embedded AI, Physical Intelligence, and Humanoid Robots—Due to the ability to program and interact with robots through language models, AI has accelerated the development of robotics. The term "embodied AI" was first used to describe a branch of AI focused on how computers, systems, and technologies interact with the physical world. It typically includes AI related to perception, motor skills, navigation, and real-world interactions. However, with the rise of generative AI, embodied AI is also being used to give this technology a physical form, often in the form of robots, including autonomous vehicles and drones. Driven by AI, the next five years will be a breakthrough period for robotics. Welcome to the Quantum Era. Will Quantum Advantage Appear as Early as 2025? We are currently in the early prototyping stage of quantum technology. To scale the number of qubits in quantum computers, many issues need to be addressed, including error correction, cost, speed, and energy efficiency. Current quantum computing companies need to solve these problems, but due to the adoption of complex architectures (such as wiring and racks), the number of qubits they can achieve will reach a limit Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), by 2028? Artificial intelligence that is sufficiently intelligent to autonomously conduct AI research to improve itself, providing feedback loops to achieve superintelligence. Since mathematician John von Neumann first discussed general artificial intelligence and the technological singularity in the mid-20th century, scientists and technologists have repeatedly predicted that human-level intelligent machines will emerge in the near future. The CEO of NVDA expects that we will achieve AGI by 2030, while futurist Steve Brown claimed at our "Transformative World Conference" that the realization of AGI could happen even faster, in just one year, or may never happen at all. According to company/media reports, the current assumption is 2027-28. Mature intelligent manufacturing systems minimize human intervention. 2. Monopoly Peak As the benefits of artificial intelligence expand and politics pressures giant companies through taxation and regulation, the dominance of the "Seven Giants" reaches its peak. The U.S. stock market has never been so concentrated, dominated by a few super-large market capitalization companies. However, as the benefits of AI expand to a broader range of businesses, and populist politicians seek to alleviate deficits and soothe the impact of AI on the labor market through taxation and regulation, the monopoly of tech companies over capital and returns will peak in the coming years. The Bigger, The Better As noted in "Tech Devours the World," artificial intelligence is a positive exogenous shock of the 2020s. Over the past two years, AI has dominated investor bullish sentiment, with the rise of the "Mag7" (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Tesla) being the best example. Even before the AI shock, these seven companies had already become the "leaders" of the U.S. stock market due to their top-notch products, brands, and management. Investors have also rewarded them for their strong balance sheets (which can withstand rising interest rates in the early 2020s) and monopolistic market positions (which guarantee revenue sources and low-cost suppliers). AI has added luster to them, whether through their ability to fund AI capital expenditures (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Google had capital expenditures of $62 billion in Q3 2024), or by leading in providing AI services (such as cloud computing), and supplying the most suitable chips for handling the computing required for AI (Nvidia). The total market capitalization of the seven giants has risen to $18 trillion, and currently, the concentration of the U.S. stock market is at its highest level in decades. In the past two years, nearly 60% of the returns of the S&P 500 index have been driven by these seven companies (the number of companies outperforming the index has fallen to the lowest point since 1998/99). Furthermore, the dominance of the "Fabulous Seven" has caused the U.S. stock market's market capitalization to reach a record 67% of the global stock market capitalization, leading to a significant change in regional wealth concentration 3. Digital Insecurity Ending this decade with privacy "death," a chaotic job market, every person on Earth having 10 deepfake news, and cybercrime becoming the world's third-largest GDP. Given the rise of cybersecurity hackers, AI agents replacing human employees, the emergence of fake news, and the spread of misinformation through deepfakes, as well as social media addiction leading to feelings of loneliness, many of us feel unprecedented anxiety about technological risks. It is expected that by 2029-30, the global amount of cybercrime will surge to $156.3 billion. Meanwhile, an attempt at deepfake attacks occurs every 5 minutes. Since 2018, the number of deepfake videos has doubled every 6 months. Losses caused by deepfakes are expected to reach $40 billion by 2027. Finally, due to technological disruption, by 2030, we will need to retrain 1 billion people, accounting for one-third of all jobs globally. Cybersecurity: The Digital Black Swan of 2030? In our view, cybersecurity is the number one risk in the "transformational world" due to our high dependence on technology. Most countries in the world have managed to get through COVID lockdowns and physical social distancing, but was this possible without entering the digital world? Now, the rise of generative AI has created a new "threat environment." For example, utilizing the computing power of over 10,000 A100 Nvidia GPUs to train ChatGPT, cracking a password now takes just 1 second. Hackers now average 277 days or about 9 months to identify and control hacks. Cybersecurity is increasingly becoming a national security issue, with critical infrastructure more vulnerable to attacks. The amount of cybercrime is staggering, expected to reach $10.5 billion by 2025, making it the world's third-largest "economy" after the United States and China. 4. More! The exponential growth of technology requires more resources, such as infrastructure, computing, bandwidth, human capital, energy, water, skills, and data centers. A transformative world has transformative demands. The exponential growth of technology will require more resources and infrastructure, while the demand brought about by population growth has already been increasing. Especially with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), there is an accelerating demand for data, computing power, bandwidth, as well as energy, water, commodities, and expanded infrastructure for data centers. Some bottlenecks have already emerged in these areas, and there are gaps in the skills and human capital needed to provide these services. To avoid structural deficits from 2025 to 2030, new technologies and solutions need to be adopted Our transforming world craves more Exponential technology requires more of... everything: In short, as the population grows and the application of technology deepens, this means we need more resources to realize the productivity gains and economic growth potential brought by artificial intelligence and future technologies. Major investment opportunities in the next five years include: Computing: Artificial intelligence will accelerate the demand for more powerful chips like GPUs. From 2024 to 2030, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for AI accelerators will triple to approximately $360 billion. To accommodate this trend, manufacturing capacity and supply chains are continuously expanding, with overall market opportunities exceeding $1 billion. Energy: The electrification of industry, transportation, and construction requires increased power generation, energy storage, and grid connectivity. By 2030, global electricity demand is expected to increase by approximately 7,000 terawatt-hours. Of this, data centers in the United States alone will account for an additional power demand of about 250 terawatt-hours by 2030. Water: The cooling demands of data centers and advanced manufacturing have increased the already strained freshwater supply. In 2023, global data centers consumed an average of 309 million gallons of water per day, which is expected to rise to 468 million gallons by 2030. Metals: By 2030, the increased demand for critical minerals driven by artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and electric vehicles is expected to lead to structural shortages of several metals, including copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and silver. Bandwidth: The increase in AI/technology applications will put pressure on internet infrastructure, requiring more fiber optics and advanced networks, such as 5G and more advanced networks (6G, along with new satellite networks). In the U.S., the largest network provider, Verizon, reported that network traffic doubled from 2020 to 2024, and it is expected to double again from 2025 to 2030 due to the demand for AI tools. Skills: In the next five years, the shortage of skilled labor in fields such as artificial intelligence, data science, and hardware engineering may worsen; due to technological disruption, 1 billion people will need retraining/reskilling by 2030. Real Estate: More land is needed to meet the growing technological demands. According to Bloomberg, there are currently over 7,000 public data centers either built or under development, but more are needed—ABI Research predicts that by 2030, there will be 8,400 data centers in operation (compared to 5,700 in 2024 and 3,600 in 2015). 5. Rebuild Everything By 2040, $94 billion will be needed to rebuild aging assets and expand infrastructure that supports technology. Global infrastructure needs to be expanded and modernized to accommodate the increasingly integrated trends of population, sustainability, and innovation. However, there is a significant funding gap—by 2040, the global need is estimated at $94 billion (source: Oxford Economics), and by 2030, an additional $500 billion per year is estimated to be needed beyond existing public funding (source: Brookfield) This spans several structural trends, including decarbonization, electrification, disruptive technologies, reshaping, demographic changes, and the aging of existing assets, all of which require a significant increase in infrastructure investment. The road to a new generation of infrastructure is long and winding—the relationship between technology, economic growth, and infrastructure is closely related to the demands for expansion and modernization. Increase: Expand infrastructure to support digital technologies and several structural trends, including data centers, high-speed data networks, and the energy facilities that power them. Rebuild aging assets: Aging infrastructure such as power grids, water supply systems, and transportation networks needs replacement and modernization to integrate new technologies like the Internet of Things/sensors, artificial intelligence monitoring, and intervention. Energy transition: Moving towards a decarbonized, decentralized, and digitalized energy system. The global energy system is transitioning to more diverse sources of power generation and energy storage, which requires substantial infrastructure and technology. Global investment trends have begun to reflect this, with nearly $20 billion expected to be invested in a range of clean energy assets by 2023 (doubling from 2020). However, more investment is needed. BNEF predicts that based on current technologies/policies, the average annual investment demand from 2023 to 2030 will rise to $30 billion, and if further policies are implemented, the average annual investment demand could reach $50 billion. By 2023, power generation, electric vehicles, and the grid will account for about 90% of this investment, but investment areas are diversifying, such as clean industries (steel, synthetic ammonia, bioplastics), energy storage, and electrified heating. 6. "The era of 'anything but bonds' is over" The era of government fiscal surpluses driven by self-motivation or market imposition has ended, reversing the original theme of asset markets "anything but bonds." The end of 5,000-year low interest rates, fiscal surpluses, inflation.... The "anything but bonds" trade has been the strongest trend on Wall Street over the past five years; for the next five years, whether self-driven or market-imposed, we believe the era of government fiscal surpluses has ended, and the pricing of asset markets "anything but bonds" will be reversed. Big government, big debt, big bond bear market Big government is one of the biggest themes of the 2020s. For most of the past 30 years, central banks have dominated the formulation of economic policy. Fiscal policy has been secondary. In the 2010s, asset prices were particularly driven by extreme monetary policies such as quantitative easing, zero interest rates, and negative interest rates. By the early 2020s, interest rates had fallen to their lowest levels in 5,000 years. In recent years, with the global pandemic, war, and the end of fiscal surpluses, a 40-year bond bull market (1981-2020) has come to a significant change. Now, governments and central banks share the responsibility for economic growth In the past five years, from 2020 to 2024, the average federal budget deficit in the United States accounted for 9% of GDP, with the deficits of the last two administrations being the largest since President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s and 1940s. In terms of GDP, the $70 billion U.S. government sector has now become the third-largest economy in the world. Big government has fueled a significant increase in nominal GDP (which has grown nearly 50% over the past five years). This trend is global. Governments with budget surpluses have become rare... The last time the U.S. had a budget surplus was in 2001, Japan in 1992, France in 1974, and Italy in 1905. 7. Populism In the 32 elections of 2024, 26 incumbents lost... Populism signifies a weakening of globalization, immigration, and central bank independence. Populism is very popular in the politics of the 2020s; the populist policies in the coming years will mean a reduction in globalization, decreased immigration, weakened central bank independence, and fiscal policy divergences between the U.S. (reduced government spending) and Europe (increased government spending). Global Political Theme — Populism is on the rise in the politics of the 2020s. Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and Trump 1.0 were precursors in the 2010s, and this political trend has deepened in the 2020s. Due to inflation, increased immigration, and worsening inequality, voters are increasingly turning away from mainstream political leaders and parties (the asset prices on Wall Street are 6.7 times the GDP of Main Street). In 2024, countries holding elections will account for 40% of the world's population, 60% of the world's GDP, and 80% of the world's stock market value. Trump swept the U.S. presidential election, marking the most significant victory for populism, but it is noteworthy that in the 32 elections of 2024, 26 incumbents were ousted, and the share of votes won by mainstream parties in the UK fell to its lowest level since 1918 (57%), and in France to its lowest level since 1945 (36%). The German elections on February 23 seem poised to become the next milestone for populism. The German economy has stagnated for 10 years, and "far-left" and "far-right" parties recently garnered over 40% of the regional election votes. 8. War and Peace Protectionism will continue; however, the "forever war" is coming to an end, and America First policies will stimulate stimulus and reforms in Asia and Europe. Global trade and technology protectionism will persist; for Trump, tariffs addressed "unfair trade practices," increased U.S. import tax revenue, and achieved non-trade objectives; however, America's "forever war" is nearing its end, and Europe will benefit; America First policies will stimulate stimulus and reforms in Asia and Europe The End of Globalization The era of peace and globalization from 1990 to 2010 has been replaced in the past decade by trade conflicts, military wars, and greater geopolitical tensions. The United States has become more protectionist, with the trade conflicts of 2018-2019 leading to the largest increase in tariff rates since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Furthermore, the competition among major powers for economic, technological, and geopolitical advantages has disrupted global supply chains, causing some countries to shift their export businesses from the United States, the European Union, and Japan to other parts of the world, giving rise to the theme of "reshoring" in the early 2020s. 9. The Rise of Generation Z and the Baby Boomer Generation! The net wealth of the American Baby Boomer generation accounts for about 80% of the world's GDP. By 2030, the total consumption of those aged 65 and older and Generation Z could reach approximately $28 trillion. In the next decade, we expect consumer spending to increase, especially among Generation Z and the aging Baby Boomer generation. Why? The Baby Boomer generation has accumulated significant wealth, which they will release during retirement. For example, by the third quarter of 2024, the net worth of the American Baby Boomer generation is expected to reach $82 trillion. Globally, by 2030, annual spending by those aged 65 and older is projected to reach nearly $15 trillion, up from $8.7 trillion in 2020. In the coming decades, the younger generation will benefit from a significant wealth transfer. By 2045, the older generation may transfer approximately $84 trillion to Generation Z. In the next decade, Generation Z will continue to be the largest demographic group globally, accounting for about 30%. Their global income levels will be the highest among all generations, increasing from $9 trillion in 2023 to $36 trillion in 2030 and $74 trillion in 2040. This generation's spending may also see the largest increase from 2024 to 2030, with an increase of $2.7 trillion, reaching $12.6 trillion. In the next decade, Generation Z and the aging Baby Boomer generation will possess significant wealth and spending levels, and their consumption patterns will have a substantial impact on the global economy. Generation Z's preferences are shifting from the old economy to technology compatibility, sustainability, and new media. An aging population means increased spending on healthcare, elder care, leisure, and finance. 10. New Wealth in Health By 2030, there will be a shortage of 10 million healthcare workers globally. An aging population is straining resources. The solution—integrating technology into biology. We believe that healthcare is one of the industries most affected by artificial intelligence in the next five years. AI drug discovery can reduce development time from decades to weeks. By 2030, AI agents could fill the global shortage of 10 million healthcare workers (source: WHO). However, it is not just AI that is changing healthcare; demographic trends are also focusing on health. Currently, its market is larger than many other major industries, including the green economy, IT, sports, and pharmaceuticals Currently, the health industry is valued at $6.3 trillion, four times that of the global pharmaceutical industry ($1.6 trillion) and 30% of the green economy ($4.8 trillion). GLP-1 is likely to become a key driving factor for "lifestyle." By 2030, the number of Americans who have tried GLP-1 will exceed the total population of Canada. In addition to treating obesity, we also see many other industries being indirectly affected (consumer goods, food retailers, restaurants, clothing retail, gambling, alcohol, tobacco, senior living). Hartnett: The dual peaks of U.S. Treasury bonds and how the wealth effect in U.S. stocks can self-fulfill? Hartnett continues last week's "bullish on bonds" tone, stating that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield may have formed a double top pattern (the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged above 5% for the second time). The supporting logic comes from two major risk indicators: if gold prices break through $2,800 per ounce and the NYSE index rises above 20,500 points, it will trigger a rapid shift in market risk appetite. Although the current breadth of the stock market remains weak (the equal-weighted S&P index/S&P 500 ratio is at a low level), the global PMI returning to the expansion range combined with monetary policy divergence (the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate hikes vs. global central banks cutting rates) may foster a more balanced market participation. According to the latest data from Bank of America, among its high-net-worth clients' $3.9 trillion in assets, the stock allocation accounts for 63.2% (close to historical peaks), bonds 18.8%, and cash 11.2%. Notably, the "seven tech giants" hold a total of $430 billion, while gold only accounts for $9 billion, indicating a clear risk appetite. Over the past four weeks, private clients have continued to increase their positions in bank loan ETFs and essential consumer goods while selling off low-volatility assets and the healthcare sector. Soul-searching question: When stock positions are nearing the ceiling, where will the incremental funds come from? Hartnett provides two major answers: Money market fund trap: The $6.9 trillion in money market funds seems to have ample ammunition, but history shows that after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, funds will continue to flow into money market funds for nine months, with the peak possibly occurring in June 2025. During the easing cycles of 2009 and 2020, cash primarily flowed into bonds and gold, rather than the stock market Migration of funds in the real estate market: The median age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has risen to 38 years (compared to 29 years in 1985), and the price-to-rent ratio has reached an all-time high, forcing millennials and Generation Z to shift their home-buying funds towards the stock market and cryptocurrencies, creating a unique liquidity pool. Data shows that U.S. household net worth in stocks reached $55.7 trillion in Q3 2024, with an additional $1.6 trillion in Q4, and is expected to increase by another $1.9 trillion in Q1 2025. Hartnett points out that this "asset appreciation → wealth effect → consumption/reinvestment" closed loop is illustrating the self-fulfilling prophecy of the "American exceptionalism": For every $1 increase in stock wealth, it stimulates $0.03-$0.05 in consumption (Source: Federal Reserve) The leverage ratio of household assets to GDP has reached 6.7 times, a historical high The surge in tech stocks has created "paper millionaires," with the wealth effect supporting the resilience of service consumption