We have a deal! The familiar Trump is back. Less than 24 hours after announcing a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, Trump's policy reversed again—due to partial agreements reached, the tariffs have been postponed for a month, with a decision to be made on March 1. This also made a report from Reuters at the end of January about the possible postponement of tariffs an early &#34;spoiler,&#34; even though the White House press secretary sternly stated that this news was &#34;false news&#34; and announced that tariffs would be imposed starting February 1. Trump also stated after the formal announcement of the tariffs that this was not a negotiation tactic, but involved important economic issues such as trade imbalances. However, a short-term trade agreement was ultimately reached, and the tariffs were postponed.
Such situations have occurred multiple times in the last round of the China-U.S. trade war, and the market has become accustomed to Trump's tactics, where avoiding tariffs requires continuous concessions. Ultimately, there will always be moments when concessions cannot be made and negotiations cannot be reached, and the tariff stick will eventually fall; it’s just that the intensity and timing may differ from the initial expectations.
There is no denying that Trump's tariff policy has landed later than the market expected, giving non-U.S. markets some breathing room. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has also experienced high-level fluctuations, accompanied by volatility in tariff issues. The emergence of a &#34;differential expectation&#34; regarding tariffs has led to a reassessment of U.S. Treasury yields by the market. Since tariffs are a key variable in U.S. inflation expectations, the postponement of tariffs implies a certain downward expectation for inflation. At the same time, U.S. stocks have been relatively volatile this year, which has also driven assets to shift towards &#34;safe havens.&#34;
The combination of these factors has pushed down U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately allowing U.S. Treasuries to outperform the expectations of &#34;reflation&#34; trades. This has also led to a short-term &#34;scissors gap&#34; between U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar index, where safe-haven sentiment has boosted the performance of the dollar while simultaneously suppressing Treasury yields. From this perspective, since the gains from the rising dollar can offset the risks of rising Treasury yields, U.S. Treasuries have become a better tool for balancing risks in the short term.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5789279c-3d85-4028-94a5-7d87515eaf26.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/5789279c-3d85-4028-94a5-7d87515eaf26.jpeg"/>
On the other hand, from the market's actual feedback, gold performed well in January and once again reached a historical high, which largely reflects investors' recognition of gold's safe-haven function in the new geopolitical environment. Since last year, there has been a very interesting correlation between gold and Hong Kong stocks, with the rise in gold often serving as a leading indicator for the rise in Hong Kong stocks, seemingly reflecting a preference among a certain type of investor. Recently, Hong Kong stocks seem to be showing upward momentum again, which can be explained from both the numerator and denominator perspectives.
From the numerator perspective, stable U.S. Treasury yields have created a favorable external environment, while the denominator has been boosted by concepts related to DeepSeek. This AI large model developed by Chinese manufacturers has become a focal point of global attention recently, with its strong functionality, cost efficiency, and savings on chip resources making it an undeniable star
On one hand, the market is calling for the AI era to arrive faster, while on the other hand, there are concerns about the valuations of chip manufacturers.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2842e584-d1b2-4e66-ac6d-789e5dcf75ea.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2842e584-d1b2-4e66-ac6d-789e5dcf75ea.jpeg"/>
From the above analysis, it can be seen that “re-inflation” and “delayed tariffs” have relatively complex impacts on the market, and the tariff issue is also full of various variables and uncertainties. Therefore, finding certainty remains crucial for the market. The stable performance of U.S. Treasuries seems to provide momentum for the resurgence of Hong Kong stocks.
Authors of this article: Zhou Hao, Huang Kaihong, Source: Guotai Junan Securities, Original title: “Under the Fog of 'Tariffs', Will Gold and Hong Kong Stocks Bloom Again?”
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk

After Trump announced tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, the decision on the tariffs was postponed to March 1 due to the partial agreement reached. This change caused fluctuations in market expectations regarding tariffs, affecting the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. The delay in tariffs indicates a downward outlook on inflation, driving a shift towards safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching new highs, reflecting investors' recognition of its hedging function

- The article discusses the recent delay in tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, initially announced by Trump, which has led to market fluctuations and a reassessment of U.S. Treasury yields.  
- The postponement of tariffs is seen as a factor contributing to lower inflation expectations and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold, which has reached new highs.  
- Additionally, the stability of U.S. Treasury yields is providing a favorable environment for Hong Kong stocks, influenced by developments in AI technology and its implications for the market.

Under the "tariff" haze, will gold and Hong Kong stocks bloom again?