CICC Macro Spring Festival Holiday Consumption Observation: Overall Stable Growth, Cultural and Entertainment Better than Goods

CICC pointed out in a report that consumer spending during this year's Spring Festival holiday showed overall steady growth, with distinct differentiation characteristics. In terms of total commodity consumption, performance was flat, with retail sales growth slightly better than the previous National Day holiday, but there was a certain gap compared to last year's "good start" during the Spring Festival. The policy of replacing old goods with new ones for consumer goods has begun to take effect, but the stimulating effect still has significant potential to be released compared to December of last year. Meanwhile, consumption in tourism, travel, and movie viewing has seen significant growth, with rapid increases in the number of passengers during the Spring Festival travel rush, tourist numbers, tourism spending, and box office revenue during the Spring Festival period. CICC believes that the current endogenous growth momentum of consumption is relatively weak and still awaits further manifestation of policy effects; the shift in residents' holiday consumption structure towards cultural and entertainment sectors reflects a new trend in consumption development. Migration data shows that this year, workers returned later before the holiday compared to last year, but resumed work slightly faster after the holiday, which may reflect robust production activities