"Weight Loss Duo" financial report dispels market concerns, focus shifts to next-generation products

The weight loss drug market continues to grow, with a focus on the next generation of products. Recently, the "weight loss duopoly" of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly both released their financial reports. Novo Nordisk expects its overall sales to grow by 20% by 2025, while Eli Lilly anticipates a revenue increase of about 32% this year. David Moore, head of Novo Nordisk's U.S. division, pointed out during an analyst conference call that currently only 1.2 million patients are using the company's obesity drug Wegovy, while 55 million people have insurance coverage for the drug, indicating significant market potential. Eli Lilly reported that the company has become a leader in the new GLP-1 prescription drug market, with an overall market share increase of 5 percentage points compared to the same period last year by the end of 2024. Eli Lilly CEO David Ricks stated: “We believe these two products (Zepbound and Mounjaro) are still in the early stages of their lifecycle.” Both companies are actively expanding their production capacity, with Novo Nordisk expressing optimism about resolving supply issues, while Eli Lilly expects a 60% increase in GLP-1 drug supply in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. With current concerns resolved, the market's attention has turned to the next generation of weight loss drugs. Analysts indicate that for Eli Lilly, investors are now primarily focused on the late-stage clinical data for its oral weight loss drug orforglipron, which is expected to be released in mid-year. If the trial results are strong, Eli Lilly could dominate the oral weight loss drug market. Additionally, Eli Lilly has initiated a new Phase III clinical trial to test the effects of orforglipron on hypertension. In contrast, Novo Nordisk's R&D prospects appear more ambiguous. Its stock price has fallen nearly 30% over the past six months, primarily due to market concerns about its next wave of innovations. Analysts believe that while Novo Nordisk has several next-generation drugs in its R&D pipeline, it remains unclear whether they can compete with Eli Lilly's increasingly dominant market position. As of yesterday's U.S. stock market close, Eli Lilly's stock price rose by 3.35%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 13% over the past six months; while Novo Nordisk's stock closed up 1.68%, with a cumulative decline of over 26% in the past six months.