Elon Musk Just Said Tesla Has a $10 Trillion Opportunity, and It Has Nothing to Do With the Car Business

Earnings season is in full swing, and, as usual, investors are paying close attention to anything and everything that even remotely touches artificial intelligence (AI). During Tesla's (TSLA -3.39%) fourth-quarter earnings call last week, Elon Musk got investors amped after the entrepreneur spoke at length about the company's AI roadmap and how it's betting big on humanoid robotics. Could AI be Tesla's next big opportunity? Read on to find out. Elon's latest comment is exciting, but... Beyond Tesla's electric vehicles (EV), you might know that the company also develops a number of energy storage products. However, in addition to its green initiatives, Tesla has a number of other exciting projects going on in the background -- many of which feature AI. One such project is a line of humanoid robots called Optimus. During Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call, Musk suggested that "Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue." On the surface, the very mention of a $10 trillion opportunity might make you want to smash the buy button. But before you do that, let's consider some more details. Image source: Getty Images. It's quite different than what he said over the summer Last week was not the first time that Musk provided an update on Optimus. In fact, Tesla's corporate accounts post videos on social media pretty frequently that feature Optimus performing basic tasks -- showing investors just how sophisticated these robots are. Over the summer, Musk spoke at a conference and alluded that Optimus could be a $200 trillion business someday. That's multiples larger than the $10 trillion he suggested more recently. Given the disparity among Musk's forecasts, should investors be worried about Optimus? What does Optimus mean for Tesla investors? In all honesty, I wouldn't spend too much time focusing on the total addressable market (TAM) for Optimus at the moment. Forecasting what demand will look like for both consumers and businesses is too difficult to model with any real accuracy right now. Moreover, even when demand trends start to emerge, there are other unknown variables, such as the scale at which Tesla will be able to produce these bots and at what cost. It's just too hard to know how humanoid robots will become integrated with society over time. Even so, I still think Optimus represents an important chapter in the Tesla narrative -- despite its nascency as a business right now. To me, Optimus signals that Tesla is serious about diversifying its platform beyond EVs and storage packs. Furthermore, Optimus could actually be a hidden catalyst that stitches Tesla's various businesses together in the long run. For example, if Tesla equips its factories around the globe with fleets of Optimus bots, then theoretically, the company can manufacture more vehicles -- and likely at a lower cost, given the labor savings Optimus presents. Therefore, Tesla could widen its overall margin profile and profitability significantly. With that said, the commercial scale of Optimus is still years away. For now, the EV business is still Tesla's core operation, while Optimus could be seen as more of a marketing tactic to get investors excited about the company's future. Perhaps a better way to look at Optimus is by trying to assess how much value can be generated or recognized by complementing the labor force, as opposed to trying to model specific revenue figures. Whether Optimus is worth millions, billions, or trillions, I can't say. Nevertheless, I think Optimus has enormous potential at scale, and I think enhanced robotics will indeed unlock a lot of value for Tesla and propel the company into one of AI's biggest businesses over the long run.