Guangfa Securities: Judging that feed demand will bottom out and rebound in 2025, the feed industry will enter a cyclical upturn

Guangfa Securities research report states that with the recovery of feed industry prosperity and overseas expansion, leading companies are releasing growth potential. It is expected that feed demand will bottom out and rebound in 2025, marking the beginning of an upward cycle in the feed industry. Aquatic feed: The demand for specialty feed is recovering with elasticity, while general aquatic feed is experiencing moderate growth. The rebound in breeding volume in 2025 will drive improvements in specialty feed demand. Considering that the first quarter is still in the feeding off-season, it is expected that the demand turning point will gradually appear in the second quarter. For general aquatic feed, it is anticipated that the stock of general aquatic fish will see a slight year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, and it is expected to be in the latter half of the current upward cycle of general aquatic fish prices, with annual breeding profits likely to be maintained and moderate growth in general aquatic feed demand. Additionally, if marginal improvements in restaurant chain consumption drive up aquatic prices, the demand for aquatic feed will become more elastic. Pig feed is expected to see simultaneous increases in volume and profit: It is anticipated that the number of pigs slaughtered will gradually recover with year-on-year growth in 2025, leading to a trend of year-on-year growth in pig feed demand. With expectations of industry demand recovery, the intensity of price competition has significantly weakened, and it is expected that the profit per ton of pig feed will return to a reasonable level for the year. Poultry feed demand remains stable: It is expected that the stock of meat poultry will operate steadily in 2025, with overall stability in poultry feed demand. Currently, the feed industry has entered a period of accelerated capacity clearance, with many small and medium-sized feed factories exiting the market. Leading companies with significant competitive advantages are expected to achieve counter-cyclical expansion at a faster pace in this cycle. Furthermore, in recent years, leading feed companies in China have accelerated their capacity layout in Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa, leveraging their advantages in the entire industry chain and technology, resulting in rapid growth in revenue and profits. We continue to be optimistic about leading companies increasing their domestic market share under comprehensive competitive advantages, with overseas business contributing new growth space