According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities Company has released a research report stating that Elon Musk, the CEO of the globally leading company in embodied intelligence, Tesla (TSLA.US), has once again provided a clear mass production plan for Optimus: by 2025, Tesla's humanoid robot shipments will approach 10,000 units, and future shipments will increase exponentially each year. Leading companies pushing robot products into mass production will have a significant impact on technological innovation and scale effects across the entire industry, and domestic complete machines and industrial chain segments are expected to benefit significantly.
<h2>CITIC Securities Company's main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
It is expected that global humanoid robot shipments will exceed 10,000 units in 2025, and shipments will exceed 5 million units by 2030.
In the context of a declining global working-age population and rising labor costs, replacing simple repetitive labor on assembly lines with machines and gradually becoming assistants in various human life scenarios is a major trend. &#34;Humanoid&#34; is the most suitable form for all scenarios in human society, as it does not require changing the scene to adapt to machines, and once the technology matures, it can be directly used in all social scenarios. According to Tesla's 2024 annual performance meeting, Tesla's global humanoid robot shipments are expected to be nearly 10,000 units by 2025, and they will first be deployed in Tesla's own automobile factories.
At the same time, considering that representative manufacturers from other industries have also begun mass production of humanoid robots, humanoid robot shipments will exceed 10,000 units in 2025. By 2030, it is expected that humanoid robot shipments will reach around 5 million units, with market demand rising to approximately 750 billion yuan. On the policy side, in October 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the &#34;Guiding Opinions on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots,&#34; actively encouraging the development of humanoid robots. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui have also established their own humanoid robot innovation centers.
Tesla leads the industry, with Figure AI and various Chinese manufacturers' humanoid robot solutions flourishing.
Tesla first proposed the &#34;Tesla Bot&#34; at the AI Day in 2021, and leveraging its experience in AI training and engineering in the automotive industry, it has iterated its self-developed Optimus to the third generation and will begin recruiting humanoid robot production line engineers at Tesla's Fremont factory in California starting January 2025, preparing for mass production of Tesla's humanoid robots. Among overseas players, Figure AI's robot has also made rapid progress, with the Figure 02 released in 2024 already being trialed on BMW's production line, demonstrating high coordination and precision.
Among domestic companies, Yushu Technology's H1 robot made its debut at the CCTV Spring Festival Gala, attracting high attention and breaking into the public's awareness; products from Huawei, BYD, and other humanoid robot players are also beginning to emerge. The humanoid robot industry shows a landscape where international giants represented by Tesla lead, while a number of Chinese players quickly follow suit, iterating together.
Humanoid robots are an integrated system of software and hardware, with actuators having a high cost proportion, and significant cost reduction goals requiring manufacturing advantages to empower.
Humanoid robots are integrated systems of software and hardware, with the core of the software being the end-to-end large model of artificial intelligence. In terms of hardware, taking Tesla's Optimus as an example, the hardware of a humanoid robot includes components such as batteries, controllers, sensors, actuators (rotary actuators, linear actuators, dexterous hands), and shells. Breaking down the hardware costs, the highest cost portion is the robot joints, and the dexterous hands also have high individual value
Considering that humanoid robots from various manufacturers are still in the early engineering stages, the demand for cost reduction remains significant, requiring suppliers with manufacturing advantages to empower them.
China's automotive parts industry has natural advantages, and the value of major component suppliers is beginning to be recognized.
In Tesla's successful journey in the new energy vehicle sector, the Chinese supply chain has played a significant role. The rapid response in R&amp;D, manufacturing advantages, and supply assurance capabilities have helped Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory increase its monthly production to over 20,000 vehicles within a year (according to Marklines data). According to Tesla's earnings call, the localization rate of the Shanghai factory has increased from less than 30% to over 80%. After local production, the performance of components is excellent (for example, some localized versions of the Model Y have seen a 22% power increase), and they can support Tesla's continuous cost reduction in new energy vehicles through iterative process technology and enhanced manufacturing capabilities.
Due to the higher demands for innovation and cost reduction in humanoid robots, the rapid response in R&amp;D and manufacturing advantages are particularly important. Thanks to the long-term cooperation with Chinese automotive parts companies and the many similarities between automotive and robotic components, the industrial chain potential for Tesla in China is enormous, and the automotive chain is expected to form a strong support. The firm also notes that some leading Chinese automotive parts suppliers are building factories in Thailand, navigating political fluctuations to further enhance their ability to meet Tesla's supply demands.
Investment Strategy:
As humanoid robots enter the implementation phase, the certainty of targets in the robotics industry chain has significantly increased. The humanoid robot industry chain is approaching a leap inflection point, and excellent Chinese automotive parts companies are accelerating their layouts. With outstanding supply capabilities and cost control, they will be able to create new growth curves in the wave of humanoid robots.
Risk Factors: Demand for humanoid robots may fall short of expectations, mass production difficulties may exceed expectations, cost reduction speed may be slower than expected, legal and regulatory restrictions may limit applications, and the effectiveness of humanoid robots may be lower than anticipated

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TSLA

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that Tesla plans to mass-produce humanoid robots in 2025, with expected shipments approaching 10,000 units, and exceeding 5 million units by 2030. This move will drive technological innovation and economies of scale in the industry, with domestic complete machines and industrial chain segments expected to benefit significantly. Policy support and the growth of market demand will further promote the development of humanoid robots, with market demand expected to reach 750 billion yuan by 2030

- Citic Securities reports that Tesla's CEO Elon Musk has outlined a clear mass production plan for the Optimus humanoid robot, expecting nearly 10,000 units to be shipped in 2025.  
- The rise of humanoid robots is anticipated to significantly impact technological innovation and scale effects in the industry, with a projected market demand reaching approximately 750 billion yuan by 2030.  
- The report highlights the importance of manufacturing advantages and rapid R&D responses in meeting the high innovation and cost-reduction demands of the humanoid robot sector.

Zhitong

CITIC Securities: Humanoid robots enter mass production, with significant benefits expected for domestic complete machines and the industrial chain