<h2>Pre-Market Market Trends</h2>
<ol>
<li>As of February 18 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.13%, S&amp;P 500 futures are up 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.38%.</li>
</ol>
<img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d80424c772886ded2d1914b132deb64a?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="21.png" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/d80424c772886ded2d1914b132deb64a"/>
<ol>
<li>As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.07%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.06%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.03%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.12%.</li>
</ol>
<img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7dcf0563ff7af2f47087a1fff30308df?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="22.png" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/7dcf0563ff7af2f47087a1fff30308df"/>
<ol>
<li>As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.83%, priced at $71.30 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.13%, priced at $75.32 per barrel.</li>
</ol>
<img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b5d9f2171b44ad456c5c72edc1f53685?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="23.png" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/b5d9f2171b44ad456c5c72edc1f53685"/>
<h2>Market News</h2>
U.S. stocks are preparing to hit new highs, followed closely by a &#34;deep correction&#34;? BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky believes that U.S. stock investors are facing a market that seems ready to break through historical highs, but as negative seasonal factors gradually emerge, any movement into new territory could trigger a &#34;deep correction.&#34; He stated, &#34;The S&amp;P 500 index has been in a fairly narrow trading range for most of the past three months. Although the index appears ready to break out of this multi-month trading range, we are entering a seasonally weak period with insufficient momentum.&#34; Krinsky expressed concern that any slight new high could trigger a deep correction before March, but unless bears can push the S&amp;P 500 index back below 6000 points, bulls will remain dominant. One reason the U.S. stock market may be more fragile than it appears is that, despite the S&amp;P 500 index nearing historical highs, less than 60% of its constituent stocks are above their 50-day moving average, indicating that a significant portion of stocks in the market has not participated in the upward trend.
Investor pessimism towards U.S. stocks reaches the highest level since 2023. The latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that in the week ending February 12, the proportion of individual investors bearish on stocks reached 47.3%. This is the highest level since November 2023. Threats of trade wars, regulatory turmoil, stubborn inflation, and diminishing expectations for further interest rate cuts have blurred the bullish sentiment that has been unabashed for most of the past two years. Institutional investors are also reassessing market risks. According to the S&amp;P Global Investment Manager Index, risk appetite sharply declined in February as stock investors reevaluated the potential impact of the Trump administration on earnings growth and the economy
Investors' expectations for U.S. stock returns over the next month have also turned negative. In addition, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year is rapidly diminishing, which is also one of the factors affecting market sentiment.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Supports pausing interest rate cuts until inflation pressures ease. Waller stated on Tuesday that recent economic data supports keeping interest rates unchanged, but if inflation performs similarly to 2024, policymakers may &#34;reconsider cutting rates at some point this year.&#34; Waller described last week's data as &#34;slightly disappointing,&#34; but emphasized that the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index—is not as concerning. Additionally, Waller noted that the economic situation is robust and the labor market is in &#34;the best shape.&#34; He acknowledged that the policies of the new Trump administration bring a degree of uncertainty, but warned against delaying the Federal Reserve's response to economic data because of this. Waller also reiterated his expectation that tariffs imposed by the U.S. government &#34;will only slightly raise prices and will not be sustained.&#34;
Will gold prices continue to rise? Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America are optimistic. Driven by strong global demand for safe-haven investments, gold prices seem just a step away from the epic threshold of $3,000 per ounce. Many major banks are optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise this year. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $2,890 per ounce to $3,100, based on the continued strong growth in global central bank gold purchases. Goldman Sachs believes that due to the sustained large increase in speculative positions, gold prices could potentially soar to $3,300 per ounce by the end of the year under optimistic expectations. A recent research report from UBS shows that the bank has raised its gold price forecast, expecting the peak gold price in 2025 to exceed $3,200 per ounce. UBS believes that ongoing market risk aversion, macroeconomic uncertainty, worsening U.S. fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks could continue to support upward movement in gold prices. Meanwhile, Bank of America's commodity strategy team recently stated that due to concerns over the ongoing escalation of the U.S. fiscal deficit, global trade disputes, wars, sanctions, and asset freezes, global central banks and retail investors have pushed spot gold prices and gold futures prices to record levels, and in the most optimistic scenario, prices could reach $3,500.
Morgan Stanley: The gold price rise myth is about to end, potentially falling to $2,400 by year-end. In stark contrast to Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America, Morgan Stanley believes that the gold price rise will come to an end. Morgan Stanley argues that since the surge in gold prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a significant shift in the situation may occur for the first time, as fundamental factors such as demand destruction and increased supply will erode gold prices. Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to fall back to $2,700 per ounce by the end of this year, and could even drop to as low as $2,400 per ounce, which is the price level from 12 months ago. The bank stated: &#34;In our view, tariff uncertainty may cause a slight increase in gold prices... but further demand destruction, supply responses from recycling, and potential profit-taking suggest that gold prices at the end of 2025 may be below current levels. We predict that by the fourth quarter, gold prices will be $2,700 per ounce.&#34; The expected lower limit of $2,400 per ounce is based on the possibility of a decline in central bank purchases, &#34;which could occur if a potential peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine.&#34;
Morgan Stanley stated that the &#34;latest&#34; driving factor for gold since 2022—central bank purchases—seems to remain strong, but may not necessarily show an upward trajectory.
<h2>Individual Stock News</h2>
Intel (INTC.US) rises pre-market amid rumors of a split, with TSMC (TSM.US) and Broadcom (AVGO.US) considering takeovers. As of the time of writing, Intel's stock rose over 5% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. According to reports, TSMC and Broadcom are considering splitting Intel into two for acquisition, with Broadcom focusing on chip design and marketing, while TSMC may take over the chip foundry business. Negotiations are still in the preliminary stages, and the two companies have not yet reached a consensus.
Grok-3 is here! Tesla (TSLA.US) FSD and Optimus welcome a &#34;super engine&#34;? Musk showcased the latest iteration of the Grok-3 artificial intelligence model to the world on Tuesday, calling it &#34;the smartest AI on Earth.&#34; Meanwhile, there is a heated discussion in the market about the &#34;biggest beneficiaries of Grok-3.&#34; Currently, most investors believe that Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) system and the humanoid robot Optimus, which Tesla is vigorously promoting, could be the biggest winners. It is reported that Grok-3 demonstrated extremely powerful reasoning abilities, logical adaptability, understanding of extremely complex physical knowledge, and spatial simulation capabilities at the launch event, all of which are crucial for enhancing the comprehensive response capabilities of the &#34;AI brain&#34; for FSD and Optimus.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks rise pre-market. As of the time of writing, in pre-market trading on Tuesday, GDS (GDS.US) rose over 11%, Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) rose over 9%, XPeng (XPEV.US) rose nearly 5%, Alibaba (BABA.US) and TAL (TAL.US) rose nearly 3%, while Li Auto (LI.US) and ZEEKR (ZK.US) rose over 2%.
Honda (HMC.US) reportedly intends to restart merger talks, with Nissan (NSANY.US) CEO's position being key. According to insiders, if Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida departs, Honda will resume negotiations with Nissan to form the world's fourth-largest automaker. The two companies previously negotiated to form a $60 billion enterprise, but talks broke down last week. Sources had previously indicated that the merger talks collapsed in less than a month due to Nissan's arrogance and slow response to its own difficulties, coupled with Honda's proposal to include Nissan as a subsidiary. Reports suggest that Honda is willing to restart talks with a Nissan leader who can more effectively manage internal opposition. Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe stated last week that his company has no intention of initiating a hostile takeover of Nissan.
A historic first! Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) plans to lay off 15%. This significant move aims to cut costs and marks the first layoffs in the company's history. The company stated in a release that the layoffs will affect 15% of management positions, including senior management and board positions. The layoff plan is set to begin in late April and is expected to be &#34;substantially completed&#34; by the end of the second quarter
Despite the company's financial performance improving in the last quarter of 2024, it warned on January 30 that costs would rise faster than expected, undermining the benefits brought by strong demand in leisure travel. Southwest Airlines attributed the reasons to &#34;ongoing inflationary pressures,&#34; including expensive labor contracts approved last year. Southwest Airlines expects to save $210 million this year from layoffs and $300 million next year.
Baidu (BIDU.US) announced 2024 results: net profit increased by 17% year-on-year to 23.76 billion yuan. The financial report shows that Baidu's total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 34.1 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 2%; core revenue was 27.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; net profit attributable to Baidu was 5.192 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%; core net profit attributable to Baidu was 5.283 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117%. In addition, Baidu's total revenue for the entire year of 2024 was 133.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; core revenue was 104.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; net profit attributable to Baidu was 23.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%; core net profit attributable to Baidu was 23.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%.
iQIYI (IQ.US) released Q4 2024 and full-year financial report: full-year revenue of 29.23 billion yuan, operating profit for three consecutive years. The financial report shows that iQIYI's total revenue for the full year of 2024 was 29.23 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 2.36 billion yuan and a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 8%, achieving operating profit for three consecutive years. In the fourth quarter, iQIYI's total revenue was 6.61 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 410 million yuan and a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 6%.
Sohu (SOHU.US) total revenue of $598 million in 2024, year-on-year flat. The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2024, Sohu's total revenue was $135 million. Among them, brand advertising revenue was $19 million, and online game revenue was $110 million. For the entire year of 2024, Sohu's total revenue was $598 million, flat compared to 2023. Among them, brand advertising revenue was $73 million, and online game revenue was $502 million.
<h2>Important Economic Data and Event Forecast</h2>
Beijing time 21:30 U.S. February New York Fed Manufacturing Index
Beijing time the next day 02:00 Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations on &#34;Artificial Intelligence in Economic and Financial Stability&#34;
<h2>Earnings Forecast</h2>
Wednesday morning: Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)
Wednesday pre-market: HSBC Holdings (HSBC.US), Philips (PHG.US)

U.S. stock index futures are all up, with S&P 500 index futures rising by 0.31%. Analyst Jonathan Krinsky warned that although the market seems poised to break through historical highs, seasonal weakness could lead to a deep correction. Currently, less than 60% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are above the 50-day moving average, indicating market fragility. The pessimism among individual investors regarding U.S. stocks has reached its highest level since 2023, with 47.3% of them bearish on stocks

- U.S. stock futures rose ahead of the market opening on February 18, with the Dow up 0.13%, S&P 500 up 0.31%, and Nasdaq up 0.38%.  
- Concerns about a potential market correction arise as investor sentiment turns negative, with 47.3% of individual investors bearish, the highest since November 2023.  
- Gold prices are projected to rise, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and UBS forecasting increases, while Morgan Stanley predicts a potential decline by year-end due to changing demand and supply dynamics.

Zhitong

S&P 500

XPENG-W

Bank of America

Honda Motor

iQIYI

LI AUTO-W

GDS-SW

Koninklijke Philips Elect

TAL Edu

Taiwan Semiconductor

HSBC HOLDINGS

Southwest Airlines

ZEEKR Intelligent Tech

SIASUN

ZAI LAB

Goldman Sachs

Morgan Stanley

Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares

BIDU-SW

BABA-W

Intel

Sohu.com

Occidental Petroleum

Koninklijke Philips N.V.

Tesla

Broadcom

Nissan Motor

U.S. Stock Outlook | Most Popular Chinese Concept Stocks Rise Before Market Open, Grok-3 Debuts, Does Tesla Welcome a "Super Engine"?