<h2>Pre-Market Market Trends</h2>
<ol>
<li>As of February 21 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 futures are up 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.12%.</li>
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<ol>
<li>As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.09%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.12%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.57%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.45%.</li>
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<ol>
<li>As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.97%, at $71.78 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.92%, at $75.78 per barrel.</li>
</ol>
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<h2>Market News</h2>
Bank of America Chief Remains Bullish on U.S. Stocks: One Major Bullish Theme Yet to be Priced In! Bank of America Chief Equity Strategist Savita Subramanian pointed out that a cornerstone of President Trump's campaign platform has yet to be reflected in stock market valuations, and the promise of deregulation could further drive the stock market up. Subramanian stated that deregulation is &#34;the last positive factor not yet reflected in stock market valuations,&#34; and &#34;policy headlines have been dominated by negative growth factors like tariffs, but the positive growth factor of 'Trump 2.0' is deregulation through cost-cutting and efficiency improvements.&#34; Subramanian indicated that this trend of deregulation suggests that U.S. stocks may not be as overvalued as they appear on the surface. She added that the ultimate deregulation trade is to go long on financial stocks and avoid technology stocks, especially considering that the financial sector has been under strict regulation since the 2008 financial crisis, while the technology sector has seen &#34;minimal regulatory increase.&#34;
Goldman Sachs Flow Master: Weakening Fund Flows, U.S. Stock Market to Correct. Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs' flow master and managing director responsible for global markets, stated that as retail and institutional buyers lose momentum, the U.S. stock market may enter a correction phase. According to estimates from Goldman Sachs' derivatives research department, over $2.7 trillion in nominal options will expire on February 21, including $1.2 trillion in SPX options and $615 billion in individual stock options. Rubner wrote in a note to clients, &#34;Starting next Monday, the flow dynamics will change dramatically, and I am watching for a correction.&#34; Retail investors have been pouring into U.S. stocks at a record pace this year, but demand from retail investors is expected to slow down before the tax season in March
The funding flow of pension funds may also be &#34;exhausted,&#34; and Rubner believes this is due to seasonal trends. He warned that systematic funds may sell off $61 billion in U.S. stock assets in the coming month.
Gold ETF holdings have rapidly surged, and gold prices are expected to welcome an &#34;eight-week consecutive rise.&#34; Driven by geopolitical and trade tensions, safe-haven demand continues to increase, and gold is expected to rise for the eighth consecutive week. Meanwhile, the holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by gold have rapidly increased, becoming a major highlight in the market. Data shows that global gold ETF holdings have soared to the highest level since January 2024, with over 16 tons added so far this week, likely setting a record for the largest weekly inflow since 2023. The movement of the U.S. dollar also provides additional support for gold prices. The index measuring the dollar's performance has fallen for three consecutive weeks, further enhancing gold's appeal to numerous buyers. Although gold prices recently reached an all-time high, market momentum seems to be weakening. Research firm Metals Focus stated that investors may need more patience to reach the $3,000 target. The firm expects gold prices to peak at $3,000 per ounce in the second quarter of this year, but there is a risk of profit-taking in the short term.
Morgan Stanley's well-known bear: The bond market is sending a clear signal! Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that he believes U.S. Treasury yields have recently risen past an important level, indicating that investors should focus on certain specific areas of the market. On Thursday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, a psychologically significant threshold for investors, indicating that interest rate expectations are high. Wilson stated that U.S. Treasury yields exceeding this threshold suggest that interest rates no longer support high valuations—this has been a key factor in the stock market's excess returns in recent years. Wilson noted that if the 10-year Treasury yield stabilizes in the 4%-4.5% range, and corporate profitability and economic growth do not show significant declines, then the current valuation of the stock market is acceptable. However, if yields rise further above 4.5%, it may indicate that the stock market's valuations are under pressure and will need stronger corporate earnings growth to support stock prices.
Is a &#34;Bretton Woods Agreement&#34; of the new era on the horizon? To alleviate the heavy pressure of U.S. debt, the Trump administration is brewing the &#34;Mar-a-Lago Agreement.&#34; The so-called &#34;Mar-a-Lago Agreement&#34; has sparked heated discussions on Wall Street—Trump may force U.S. overseas creditors to exchange their U.S. Treasury bonds for ultra-long-term U.S. bonds to alleviate the heavy pressure of principal and interest payments on U.S. debt faced by the government, as well as the overall national debt burden. Wall Street views this proposal as incredibly radical. Top Wall Street strategist Jim Bianco emphasized that the practical feasibility of such debt exchanges in financial markets is extremely low, and if the U.S. insists on implementing it, it would require extremely broad international cooperation and could jeopardize global financial stability. However, the bond market has shown no signs of concern so far, and recent U.S. Treasury trading has been particularly calm, with the volatility of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to its lowest level since 2022
<h2>Individual Stock News</h2>
Popular Chinese concept stocks rise before the market. As of the time of writing, Zai Ding Yi Yao (ZLAB.US) and Vipshop (VIPS.US) are up nearly 11%, Kingsoft Cloud (KC.US) is up nearly 8%, Tencent Music (TME.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), and Li Auto (LI.US) are up nearly 6%, GDS Holdings (GDS.US) is up nearly 5%, XPeng (XPEV.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), and iQIYI (IQ.US) are up over 4%.
Due to software issues with the electronic power steering system, Tesla (TSLA.US) recalls 376,000 vehicles in the U.S. On February 21, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) disclosed that Tesla will recall certain 2023 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, totaling 376,241 units, which are equipped with software versions earlier than 2023.38.4. The printed circuit board of the electronic power steering assist system may overload under certain conditions, causing the power steering assist function to fail when the vehicle accelerates again after being parked. If the power steering assist function fails, the driver must apply greater steering force (especially at low speeds), which may increase the risk of collision. Tesla has released a free OTA software update.
Booking (BKNG.US) holiday season performance exceeds expectations! Travel demand remains resilient, with a 13% surge in room bookings. Following a busy holiday season, Booking, the world's largest online travel agency, reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. The financial report shows that Booking's fourth-quarter revenue was $5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, exceeding expectations by $320 million; the non-GAAP earnings per share were $41.55, exceeding expectations by $5.46. Room nights booked increased by 13% to 261 million, surpassing Wall Street's expectations and its own growth forecast of 6% to 8%; the total travel booking amount, including taxes and fees, was $37.2 billion, compared to an expectation of $34.5 billion. Additionally, Booking announced the approval of an additional stock repurchase plan of up to $20 billion. The company also declared a cash dividend of $9.60 per share. As of the time of writing, Booking's stock rose nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Friday.
Latin American e-commerce platform MercadoLibre (MELI.US) Q4 sales grew 37% exceeding expectations, with the number of buyers surpassing 100 million for the first time. The financial report shows that all indicators, including active buyers, total merchandise volume, and payment volume, increased in the fourth quarter, driving significant growth in MercadoLibre's total sales. Data shows that MercadoLibre's fourth-quarter sales were $6.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, exceeding market expectations by $120 million; earnings per share were $12.61, significantly exceeding expectations by $5.05. Total payment volume reached $58.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%; GMV increased by 8% year-on-year, and excluding foreign exchange effects, it increased by 56%. As of the time of writing, MercadoLibre's stock rose nearly 11% in pre-market trading on Friday
Gold production and prices rise, Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) Q4 profits far exceed expectations. The world's largest gold producer, Newmont Corporation, reported fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed expectations, primarily due to the continued rise in gold prices and an increase in the company's gold production. Data shows that for the quarter ending December 31, the company's adjusted earnings per share were $1.40, significantly higher than the average analyst forecast of $1.08. Gold production increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 1.9 million ounces, while the gold sales price rose by 31.9% year-on-year to $2,643 per ounce. Additionally, the industry metric reflecting total gold production costs—All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC)—decreased by 1.5% year-on-year to $1,463 per ounce, providing strong support for the company's profitability. Looking ahead, Newmont Corporation expects gold production for the year to reach approximately 5.9 million ounces, exceeding Wall Street analysts' forecast of 5.87 million ounces.
Vipshop Holdings Limited (VIPS.US) Q4 performance exceeds expectations. Data shows that the company's Q4 net revenue was RMB 33.2 billion (approximately $4.6 billion), better than market expectations, compared to RMB 34.7 billion in the same period last year; diluted earnings per ADS were RMB 4.69 (equivalent to $0.64), also better than market expectations. The fourth-quarter GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) was RMB 66.2 billion, compared to RMB 66.4 billion in the same period last year. The full-year GMV for 2024 is expected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year to RMB 209.3 billion. The number of active users in the fourth quarter was 45.7 million, down from 48.5 million in the same period last year. The total number of active customers for the full year 2024 is expected to be 84.7 million, compared to 87.4 million the previous year. The total order volume for the fourth quarter was 217.5 million, compared to 234.3 million in the same period last year. The total orders for the full year 2024 are expected to be 757.5 million, down from 812.3 million the previous year. Looking ahead, Vipshop expects Q1 2025 net revenue to be between RMB 26.3 billion and RMB 27.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 5% to 0%.
Revenue continues to decline but spends $1.8 billion to acquire a competitor, Celsius (CELH.US) surges pre-market to challenge Red Bull. Celsius Holdings announced it will acquire its energy drink industry competitor Alani Nu for a combination of $1.8 billion in cash and stock, which includes $150 million in tax assets. The transaction is expected to be completed smoothly in the second quarter of 2025. The two companies expressed optimism in a joint statement: &#34;With the addition of Alani Nu, the combined Celsius platform is expected to achieve approximately $2 billion in sales.&#34; Celsius also faces challenges from major competitor Red Bull, particularly as Red Bull continues to launch more sugar-free flavor products, posing a significant threat. As of the time of writing, Celsius shares surged over 31% in pre-market trading on Friday.
<h2>Important economic data and event forecasts</h2>
Beijing time 22:45 US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value
Beijing time 23:00 US January Existing Home Sales annualized total
At 23:00 Beijing time, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for February in the United States

Alibaba  earnings 

The movements in the US stock market show that Dow futures rose by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.06%, and Nasdaq futures climbed by 0.12%. Major European stock indices also generally rose. Bank of America's chief strategist Savita Subramanian believes that Trump's promises of deregulation have not yet been reflected in stock market valuations, which could drive the market higher. Goldman Sachs' Scott Rubner warned that as capital flows weaken, the US stock market may enter a correction zone

- U.S. stock futures rose ahead of the market opening on February 21, with the Dow up 0.15% and the S&P 500 up 0.06%.  
- Goldman Sachs predicts a potential market correction as retail and institutional buying momentum wanes, with over $2.7 trillion in options expiring.  
- Meanwhile, gold prices are expected to rise for the eighth consecutive week due to increased demand amid geopolitical tensions, while Tesla recalls over 376,000 vehicles due to software issues.

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