According to the Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. stocks performed poorly over the past week due to a series of economic data raising concerns about lower-than-expected economic growth and persistently high inflation. The S&amp;P 500 index fell approximately 1.7% last week, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones indices dropped about 2% and nearly 3%, respectively.
In the coming week, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is expected to be in the headlines with its earnings report. Home Depot (HD.US), Lowe's (LOW.US), and Salesforce (CRM.US) will also be in focus with their earnings announcements.
In terms of economic data, investors will closely watch the U.S. January PCE price index data to be released on Friday, which is a favored inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve and will reveal the inflation situation. Meanwhile, the revised annualized quarterly rate of U.S. real GDP for the fourth quarter will also attract market attention, set to be released on Thursday.
Inflation
As inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target and the labor market fundamentals are solid, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of 2025.
The U.S. January PCE price index data to be released on Friday will reveal the latest status of U.S. inflation. Economists expect the core PCE price index for January to grow by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.7%; the overall PCE price index is expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, up from the previous value of 0.2%.
Due to differences in components, the price increase rate indicated by the U.S. January core PCE price index is expected to be more moderate than that shown by the U.S. January CPI data. Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in the U.S. January core PCE price index &#34;indicates a substantial decline in the core inflation rate over the past 12 months,&#34; which aligns with their prediction of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
NVIDIA Earnings Report
The AI chip giant will announce its fourth-quarter results after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts expect NVIDIA's Q4 revenue to grow by 73% year-on-year to $38.26 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected to rise by 63% year-on-year to $0.84.
The key focus of this earnings report will be whether the AI data center business can maintain its growth momentum, whether there are any technical delays in the mass production of Blackwell GB200 architecture products, the market transition pace of GPU products, and the company's management's strategic assessment of the global AI application commercialization process.
Additionally, due to the emergence of the DeepSeek-R1 &#34;low-cost + high-performance&#34; open-source model, which has triggered a reassessment of the demand for large-scale AI model computing power, investors will also pay close attention to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's views on the demand environment for AI chips. Notably, Huang recently stated that the launch of the DeepSeek-R1 model will not suppress AI computing demand; rather, it may serve as a catalyst for the market's pursuit of efficient AI architectures, thereby driving technological iteration across the entire AI industry. He emphasized that despite the continuous improvement in model pre-training efficiency, the computing power consumption in the AI inference phase, as the core stage of practical applications, has an incompressible nature
So far this year, most of the &#34;Seven Giants of U.S. Stocks,&#34; including NVIDIA, have underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index, and their contribution to this benchmark index is not as strong as in the past two years. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya stated, &#34;NVIDIA's stock price may experience volatility after the earnings announcement, but we expect positive momentum to return as investors look forward to NVIDIA unveiling its GB300 product line at the upcoming GTC conference and expanding its potential market into robotics and quantum computing technologies.&#34;
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250224/1740354989385987.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="11.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250224/1740354989385987.png"/>
Market Uncertainty
Despite the resilience shown by U.S. stocks amid numerous headlines regarding President Trump's policies, various survey data indicate a sense of concern. Data released last Friday showed that the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February fell to 64.7, the lowest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the economic output measured by the SPGI Composite PMI for February dropped to its lowest level in 17 months.
Concerns about tariffs and their potential to drive up inflation are at the core of these two survey reports. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, stated, &#34;The optimism among U.S. businesses at the beginning of the year has dissipated, replaced by heightened uncertainty, stagnation in business activity, and a bleak outlook for rising prices. Companies are generally worried about the impact of federal government policies, including spending cuts and geopolitical developments.&#34; He added that U.S. businesses' optimism for the coming year has fallen to &#34;the most pessimistic level since the pandemic.&#34;
Although U.S. stocks declined last week, they remain near historical highs. Citigroup U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert noted that as U.S. stock valuations approach historical peaks, the market may experience more volatility on its upward path in 2025 as investors try to digest the impact of Trump's policies. He stated, &#34;We believe there is still upside potential for the S&amp;P 500 index before the end of 2025, but there may be a period of sustained volatility. However, pullbacks could provide us with better buying opportunities.&#34;
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250224/1740354983950092.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="12.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20250224/1740354983950092.png"/>

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. 

According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

NVIDIA Financial Results for Q4 Fiscal 2025

NVDA

This week's market focus is on NVIDIA's earnings report and the U.S. January PCE price index data. NVIDIA's earnings report will be released on Wednesday, and the market hopes it can restore confidence in U.S. stocks regarding AI. Meanwhile, investors are paying attention to the PCE data to be released on Friday to assess the inflation situation. Economists expect the January core PCE to grow by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a decline in the core inflation rate. U.S. stocks performed poorly last week, with the S&P 500 index falling by about 1.7%

- U.S. stock markets performed poorly last week, with the S&P 500 down approximately 1.7%, amid concerns over lower-than-expected economic growth and persistent inflation.  
- Key upcoming events include Nvidia's earnings report, which is expected to show a 73% year-over-year revenue increase, and the release of the January PCE price index, a favored inflation measure by the Federal Reserve.  
- Despite recent declines, the S&P 500 remains near historical highs, with analysts predicting potential volatility in 2025 as investors adjust to the impacts of government policies.

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NVIDIA

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

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Home Depot

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Morgan Stanley

Salesforce

S&P 500

Citigroup

Bank of America

Lowes

This week's market focus: Can NVIDIA's earnings report revive the "AI faith" in the US stock market? US January PCE data is expected to ease inflation concerns