The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator — the U.S. PCE price index grew at a moderate pace in January, bringing some relief to the market after a series of reports indicated that price pressures might be heating up again.
However, at the same time, U.S. personal consumer spending showed a significant decline, which may raise concerns about the resilience of the U.S. economy.
On February 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing:
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The U.S. January PCE price index rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with expectations of a 2.5% increase, compared to a 2.6% increase in December.</li>
<li>The U.S. January PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations of a 0.3% increase, compared to a 0.3% increase in December.</li>
<li>The U.S. January core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose 2.65% year-on-year, the smallest annual increase since early 2021, with expectations of a 2.6% increase, compared to a 2.8% increase in December.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>The U.S. January core PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations of a 0.3% increase, compared to a 0.2% increase in December.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
In January, core service prices excluding housing and energy rose 0.2% month-on-month, while prices of goods excluding food and energy rose 0.4%, marking the largest increase since the beginning of 2023.
The overall core inflation excluding estimated prices, which the Federal Reserve has been particularly focused on in recent months, rose 0.2% in January.
<h2>Personal Consumption Expenditures and Income</h2>
Personal consumption expenditures fell 0.2% month-on-month in January. Real personal consumption expenditures adjusted for inflation fell 0.5% month-on-month, the largest monthly decline in nearly four years.
The poor performance of personal consumption expenditures in January was mainly affected by extreme winter weather and occurred after a strong holiday shopping season. The unusually large decline in automobile purchases was a major factor in the drop in expenditures. Additionally, service expenditures, which make up the largest portion of personal consumption, grew weakly in January. If the slowdown in service expenditures continues, it may exacerbate concerns about the U.S. consumption outlook.
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Nominal personal income rose 0.9% month-on-month in January, partly boosted by the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income rose 0.6%, pushing the savings rate in January to its highest level since June of last year, reaching 4.6%.
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<h2>Analysis and Interpretation</h2>
Overall, Friday's PCE report brought some degree of relief regarding inflation. A series of previous reports had indicated that the process of cooling inflation had not only stalled but had even reversed
Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that they need to see a significant easing of inflation before they start cutting interest rates again, especially considering the uncertainty that Trump's policies may bring to prices.
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Looking ahead, the ongoing price pressures combined with aggressive policy adjustments, including new import tariffs, still warrant attention for their negative impact on consumer spending. Recently released consumer confidence indices have declined, primarily due to concerns that tariffs will lead to rising prices. Data from the University of Michigan last week showed that long-term inflation expectations among respondents are currently at their highest level in nearly 30 years.
Renowned financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the &#34;New Federal Reserve Correspondent,&#34; pointed out:
<blockquote>
The annualized inflation rate of the core PCE price index has remained at 2.4% over three months, and at 2.6% over six months.
Core goods prices performed strongly, rising 0.41% month-on-month in January. Previously, core goods prices had been declining, but they have now regained upward momentum. Core service prices, excluding housing, rose moderately, increasing 0.22% month-on-month in January. Housing prices also continued to cool, rising 0.32% month-on-month in January.
</blockquote>
<h2>Market Reaction</h2>
After the data was released, U.S. stock futures showed little change, maintaining an upward trend.
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The U.S. dollar spot index remained stable.
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The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, rose moderately in January, easing some concerns about inflation. However, consumer spending has declined, and if the slowdown in service spending continues, it may exacerbate worries about the U.S. consumption outlook. The "New Federal Reserve News Agency" stated that core commodity prices had been falling previously but have now regained upward momentum, while core service prices excluding housing have risen moderately, and housing prices continue to cool

- The U.S. PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year in January, matching expectations, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.2%, raising concerns about economic resilience.  
- Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.65%, the smallest annual rise since early 2021, indicating persistent inflation pressures.  
- Despite a slight easing in inflation, ongoing price pressures and policy adjustments, including new tariffs, may negatively impact consumer spending and confidence.

Wallstreetcn

In January, the core PCE price index in the United States rose by 2.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but personal consumption expenditures were weak