Target Earnings: What Wall Street Expects and Key Items to Watch

Target Corporation (TGT) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on Tuesday, March 4, 2025, before the market open. Here's what Wall Street expects and key items to watch ahead of the report.Earnings Estimates:* Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter revenue of $30.84 billion, down from $31.92 billion in last year's fourth quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.* The company has missed analyst estimates for revenue in two straight quarters but has beaten estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.* Analysts expect Target to report fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26, down from $2.98 in last year's fourth quarter. The company missed analyst estimates for EPS in one straight quarter while beating estimates in six of the last 10 quarters.* Target's guidance for the fourth quarter calls for EPS to be in a range of $1.85 to $2.45.What Analysts Are Saying:* Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli said in a new investor note that Target previously reported holiday sales growth of +2.8% but maintained its earnings per share range, which could suggest a heavier impact from promotions and discounts. He has a Hold rating and $134 price target.* Ciccarelli also said that Target's first quarter appears to be off to a slow start, and he thinks there is a chance that the company could pursue significant price investments to improve its competitive pricing and drive longer-term share gains.* goldman sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target on Target stock from $164 to $166 in January. She said Target underperformed other retailers in 2024 but could benefit from its higher mix of discretionary products and alternative revenue streams like Roundel (advertising), Target Circle (membership), and Target Plus (marketplace).Key Items to Watch:* A recent report from Placer.ai showed that Target store visits were up 1.0% in November, down 1.3% in December, and up 3.6% in January, which could signal improved sales for the first quarter.* Target's fourth-quarter results will include Black Friday and holiday shopping sales. The company's partnership with Taylor Swift on an exclusive Eras Tour book saw lines outside stores and strong sales over the Black Friday shopping holiday.* In the third quarter, Target highlighted Beauty, Food & Beverage, and essentials as sectors seeing strong year-over-year growth. Investors and analysts will be looking for commentary on what sectors are seeing strong sales and how the future impact of tariffs on certain goods could impact the retail giant.As Target prepares to report its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, investors and analysts will be closely watching the company's performance and guidance. With a potential conservative 2025 outlook and questions surrounding CEO succession planning, the retail giant will need to address these concerns and provide a clear path forward for shareholders.