During the European trading session, U.S. Treasuries began to strengthen but subsequently experienced two-way fluctuations following economic data from the Federal Reserve. Short-term bonds came under pressure while long-term bonds strengthened. Multiple data points weakened market confidence in the U.S. economy, with February retail sales increasing only 0.2% month-on-month, far below the expected 0.6%, and the previous value was significantly revised down. Although data excluding automobiles and gasoline was better than expected, the market remains concerned about slowing consumer spending.
The New York Fed's manufacturing PMI significantly missed expectations, with new orders declining and payment prices rising, indicating pressure on the manufacturing sector and persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, U.S. homebuilder confidence fell to a seven-month low. The U.S. job turnover rate is nearing a four-year low, showing signs of a slowdown in the labor market. Additionally, a New York Fed survey indicated an increased risk of consumer loan rejections. The U.S. Treasury Secretary warned last Sunday that a recession could not be guaranteed to be avoided. The OECD has lowered its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next.
On the trade front, the White House reiterated that the tariff plan will take effect on April 2, but the U.S. Trade Representative seeks to implement it &#34;orderly&#34; to reduce uncertainty. The Trump administration may change its recent chaotic approach of announcing tariff plans and then repeatedly delaying or escalating them, consulting with U.S. industry opinions before announcing actions, which has helped to expand gains in U.S. stocks.
Trump's tariff rhetoric has temporarily quieted, and the market is closely watching global central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Powell's speech will be crucial as he has emphasized multiple times this year that there is no rush to cut rates. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.50%, and any hint of a rate hike could strengthen the yen. The market is focused on the voting results of the German reform plan in the Bundestag on Tuesday, with a 58% probability of the European Central Bank cutting rates by 25 basis points next month.
Geopolitical tensions are escalating. The market is paying attention to Trump's call with Putin on Tuesday. Oil prices rose after the U.S. military attacked Houthi forces in Yemen over the weekend. Trump warned Iran that if the Houthis attack again, the U.S. will respond strongly and hold Iran responsible. Risk aversion is rising, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets.
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At the beginning of the U.S. stock market, investors are trying to recover from last month's significant sell-off, buying undervalued tech stocks, with most of the seven tech giants and chip stocks rising initially. However, tech stocks briefly surged and then retreated during the session, but ultimately improved risk sentiment drove a rebound in U.S. stocks, with the real estate and energy sectors leading. The China concept index rose over 4%, reaching a closing high not seen in over three years:
<blockquote>
All three major U.S. stock indices rose.
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index closed up 0.65%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.85%. The Nasdaq closed up 0.31%. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 0.55%.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, closed up 0.25%.</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 small-cap index closed up 1.19%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, closed down 5.83%, at 20.50.</li>
</ul>
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U.S. industry ETFs rose broadly.
<ul>
<li>The global airline industry ETF rose by 1.85%, the energy industry ETF rose by 1.59%, while the consumer discretionary ETF rose by over 0.1%, the worst performer.</li>
</ul>
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“Tech Seven Sisters” mostly fell:
<ul>
<li>The Magnificent 7 Index fell by about 0.8%, while the “Trump Tariff Losers” Index rose by about 1.8%.</li>
<li>Tesla fell by 4.83%, NVIDIA fell by 1.76%, Amazon fell by 1.12%, Alphabet A fell by 0.73%, Meta Platforms fell by 0.44%, Microsoft rose by 0.04%, and Apple rose by 0.24%.</li>
<li>Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the B300 release will be a key focus for NVIDIA at GTC 2025, with mass production expected in the third quarter.</li>
</ul>
Chip stocks rose more than they fell.
<ul>
<li>The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.42%. The NVIDIA 2x Bull ETF fell by 3.34%. Nanosys Semiconductor rose by 6%.</li>
<li>Intel rose by 6.82%, with reports indicating that Intel's new CEO plans to comprehensively reform the chip business and AI strategy.</li>
<li>After reports that Google may collaborate with MediaTek to develop AI chips, Broadcom fell over 3.9% and closed down 0.53%.</li>
</ul>
AI concept stocks mostly rose.
<ul>
<li>BullFrog AI rose by 9.88%, Jet.AI rose by 9.53%, Palantir rose by 1.29%, and Applovin rose by 4.77%.</li>
</ul>
Chinese concept stocks rose broadly.
<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.03%, rebounding a cumulative 6.61% over the last three trading days. The FTSE A50 futures index closed up 0.77% at 13,767.000 points.</li>
<li>Among ETFs, the Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X ETF (YINN) rose by 7.21%, the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 4.11%, and the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 1.73%.</li>
<li>Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Baidu rose over 9%, Alibaba rose by 4.6%, Yuyuan Sunshine rose by 97.98%, and X3 Holdings rose by 47.91%.</li>
<li>Brain Rejuvenation Technology rose by 46.59%, Ruineng New Energy rose by 32.77%, and Leju rose by 25%. Niu Technologies rose by 29.04%, and Yixian E-commerce rose over 12%.</li>
</ul>
Quantum computing concept stocks rose more than they fell.
<ul>
<li>ARQQ rose by 56.93%, QMCO rose by 40.09%, QBTS rose by 10.15%, and QUBT rose by 13.12%.</li>
</ul>
Airline stocks rose broadly.
<ul>
<li>Embraer ADR rose by 4.38%, American Airlines AAL rose by 4.14%, Alaska Airlines rose by 2.24%, and Southwest Airlines rose by 1.26%</li>
</ul>
Among other key stocks.
<ul>
<li>Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares rose 1.63%, reaching a new closing high for the second consecutive day. Berkshire &#34;as promised&#34; increased its holdings in Japan's five major trading companies, with an average holding ratio close to 10%.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel rose 2.85%, as the U.S. Department of Justice plans to extend the deadline for the lawsuit against U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.</li>
<li>Bakkt's U.S. stock plummeted 52% after hours, as the company applied to delay the release of its 10-K annual report. Bank of America and Webull will not renew/extend their business agreements, with Bank of America accounting for 16% of its revenue from licensed services.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
News from the Eurozone is relatively calm, and European stocks rose ahead of the vote on Germany's debt reform. All sectors rose except for chemicals:
<blockquote>
European Stocks:
<ul>
<li>
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.78%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.77%.
</li>
<li>
The German stock index closed up 0.62%. The French stock index closed up 0.58%. The Italian stock index closed up 0.96%. The British stock index closed up 0.56%. The Spanish stock index rose 1.09%.
</li>
<li>
The proposal to reform the &#34;debt brake rule,&#34; which involves amending the German constitution, needs the support of two-thirds of the members of the German Bundestag. The Bundestag is expected to vote on the debt reform on Tuesday.
</li>
</ul>
Sector Performance:
<ul>
<li>
European chip stocks rose broadly, with Infineon Technologies in Germany up 3.94%.
</li>
<li>
UK defense company QinetiQ's stock plummeted nearly 21% after lowering its full-year revenue outlook.
</li>
<li>
Defense stocks RENK rose 9.83%, and Thyssenkrupp rose 5.85%, as reports suggest that Germany's next round of defense spending is inclined towards European companies, with Thyssenkrupp's ships included in Germany's &#34;wish list&#34; for weapons.
</li>
<li>
U.S. tariff policies have indirectly led other countries to shift cheap aluminum products to the EU market, raising concerns that this &#34;trade diversion&#34; could impact local industries. Reports indicate that the EU plans to investigate the aluminum market to address this risk.
</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, the U.S. Treasury market shows polarization, with short-term bonds under pressure and long-term bonds strengthening, further inverting the U.S. Treasury yield curve:
<blockquote>
U.S. Treasuries:
<ul>
<li>The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 0.78 basis points to 4.3043%.</li>
<li>The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 3.76 basis points to 4.0546%.</li>
</ul>
European Bonds:
<ul>
<li>In the European market's late trading, the yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by 5.7 basis points. The yield on the two-year German bond rose by 0.4 basis points.</li>
<li>The yield on the 10-year UK government bond fell by 3.7 basis points. The yield on the two-year UK bond rose by 0.2 basis points.</li>
<li>The yield on the 10-year French government bond fell by 8.7 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond fell by 9.0 basis points</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>
The shadow of Trump's trade protectionism continues, the dollar falls to a five-month low, most G10 currencies strengthen, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars leading the way. Due to improved risk sentiment, the yen is the only currency in the G10 that weakens against the dollar. Ahead of the vote on German debt reform, the euro strengthens close to a five-month high. The offshore yuan approaches a four-month high:
<blockquote>
Dollar:
<ul>
<li>At the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index fell 0.33%, reporting 103.374 points.</li>
<li>The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.29%, reporting 1262.06 points.</li>
</ul>
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Non-dollar currencies:
<ul>
<li>The euro rose 0.40% against the dollar, reporting 1.0923. The pound rose 0.44% against the dollar. The dollar fell 0.49% against the Swiss franc.</li>
<li>The Australian dollar rose 0.96% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 1.29% against the dollar, and the dollar fell 0.53% against the Canadian dollar.</li>
</ul>
Yen:
<ul>
<li>At the New York close, the dollar rose 0.36% against the yen, reporting 149.18 yen.</li>
</ul>
Offshore yuan:
<ul>
<li>The offshore yuan (CNH) rose 108 points against the dollar compared to Tuesday's New York close, reporting 7.2271 yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day of gains, trading overall within the range of 7.2447-7.2251 yuan during the day.</li>
</ul>
Cryptocurrency:
<ul>
<li>At the New York close, the largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin fell 0.62% compared to last Friday's close, reporting 84,310.00 USD.</li>
<li>The second-largest Ethereum rose 0.21% at the close, reporting 1,943.00 USD.</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>
Trump stated that every shot fired by the Houthis will be counted against Iran, leading to an expansion in crude oil prices. Brent crude closed up about 0.7%:
<blockquote>
U.S. Oil: WTI April crude futures closed up 0.40 USD, an increase of over 0.59%, reporting 67.58 USD/barrel.
Brent Oil: Brent May crude futures closed up 0.49 USD, an increase of 0.69%, reporting 71.07 USD/barrel.
Trump stated that from now on, every shot fired by the Houthis will be counted against Iran's weapons and leaders, and Iran will be held accountable and face &#34;terrible&#34; consequences.
Last Saturday, the U.S. military launched a large-scale attack on the Houthis, and Trump warned Iran to immediately stop supporting the Houthis. U.S. officials stated that this was the most significant military action since the beginning of Trump's second term and was intended to send a warning signal to Iran
Natural Gas:
<ul>
<li>U.S. April natural gas futures fell over 2.09%, closing at $4.0180 per million British thermal units.</li>
<li>TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures dropped 2.01%, closing at €41.375 per megawatt hour.</li>
<li>ICE UK natural gas futures decreased by 2.53%, closing at 101.260 pence per kilocalorie.</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>
Trump ignites trade concerns, spot gold rises about 0.6%, nearing historical highs:
<blockquote>
Gold:
<ul>
<li>COMEX gold futures rose 0.30%, closing at $3010.00 per ounce.</li>
<li>Spot gold increased by 0.57% at the close, reaching $3001.16 per ounce.</li>
<li>UBS raised its gold price target to $3200 per ounce.</li>
</ul>
Silver:
<ul>
<li>COMEX silver futures fell 0.02%, closing at $34.425 per ounce.</li>
<li>Spot silver rose 0.23% at the close, reaching $33.8782 per ounce.</li>
</ul>
London Industrial Metals Mixed:
<ul>
<li>LME copper futures closed up $81. COMEX copper futures rose 1.69%, closing at $4.9785 per pound.</li>
<li>LME aluminum futures closed up $6. LME zinc futures fell $14. LME lead futures closed up $14. LME nickel futures fell $40. LME tin futures fell $95. LME cobalt futures remained flat.</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>

BIDU

09888

INTC

YINN

YANG

Tesla closed down nearly 5%, Nvidia fell nearly 2%; Intel rose nearly 7%; quantum computing stock ARQQ surged 57%; the China concept index rose 4%, with Alibaba up over 4%. After U.S. retail sales, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a two-week high. The U.S. dollar index briefly approached a five-month low. Crude oil rebounded over two days. Gold futures closed at a historic high for three consecutive days, having briefly turned lower during the session

- U.S. Treasury bonds experienced volatility following mixed economic data, with short-term bonds under pressure and long-term bonds strengthening.  
- Key indicators, including a lower-than-expected retail sales increase and declining manufacturing PMI, have raised concerns about consumer spending and economic confidence.  
- In the stock market, major indices rose, led by technology and energy sectors, while geopolitical tensions and trade policies continued to influence market sentiment.

Wallstreetcn

Baidu

BIDU-SW

Intel

Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X

Direxion FTSE China Bear 3X

AirNet Tech

US Steel

GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

Berkshire Hathaway B

Niu Tech 

Apple

Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares

Regencell Bioscience

Bakkt

NVIDIA

iShares Semiconductor ETF

Semiconductor

Southwest Airlines

Yatsen

Microsoft

YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF

Alphabet - C

MediaTek

Alaska Air

Bank of America

Broadcom

Berkshire Hathaway

Amazon

Palantir Tech

Alphabet

Withstanding the pressure of weak retail, U.S. stock indices rebounded over two days, but Tesla and Nvidia fell back. Quantum computing stocks continued to surge, and Chinese concept stocks strengthened, with Baidu rising 9%