Behind the strong rebound of the US stock market: The Trump tariff dilemma remains unresolved, and investors may be in a stage of "maximum uncertainty."

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on Monday, the US stock market performed optimistically, as investors seemed to temporarily shake off concerns triggered by the Trump administration's tariff policies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 597.97 points that day, an increase of 1.42%; the S&P 500 index rose by 1.76%; while previously underperforming tech stocks drove the NASDAQ Composite Index up by 2.27%, further extending the recent rebound trend. The main driving factor behind this market rise was media reports suggesting that the White House might adopt a more targeted approach to implement the reciprocal tariff measures to be announced on April 2. However, investors generally believe that there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the period leading up to the final announcement, as President Trump has frequently changed tariff plans during his second term, increasing market volatility. Thomas Martin, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investment in Atlanta, stated in a phone interview: "There is still a lot of uncertainty in the market, and specific policies are difficult to determine until they are actually implemented." In fact, Trump himself conveyed contradictory messages during a speech on Monday afternoon. He indicated that he might "grant exemptions to many countries," but also hinted at the possibility of future tariffs targeting specific industries. He specifically mentioned: "We will announce some additional tariff measures in the coming days, which will involve the automotive industry, as well as potentially the lumber and chip industries." Bob Savage, the market strategy director at Bank of New York Mellon, pointed out in an analysis report to clients that investors may currently be in a phase of "maximum uncertainty," but he expects the situation to become clearer after early April, potentially "better than the market's previous pessimistic expectations." Previously, the Trump administration was scheduled to announce tariff measures targeting specific industries on April 2, but according to the latest reports from foreign media, the White House may not launch industry-specific tariffs on that date, but will still implement broad reciprocal tariff policies targeting major trading partners of the United States. Although a more precise tariff plan is welcomed by the market, Savage stated: "We expect the Trump administration to continue sending contradictory signals in the future, and the implementation of tariffs may fluctuate repeatedly. An important purpose of the tariff policy is to promote trade negotiations, so the developments in the coming week are worth close attention." Deutsche Bank's latest global market survey results show that since December of last year, market expectations for tariff risks have significantly increased. However, 62% of respondents believe that the final implemented tariff rates will be lower than the 60% high tariffs on China and the 10% general tariffs on all countries promised by Trump during his presidential campaign. Due to the uncertainty of tariff policies, consumer confidence in the United States has noticeably declined, although the real economy data remains relatively robust so far. The S&P 500 index previously fell into a technical correction zone on March 13, retreating more than 10% from its historical high on February 19 Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee pointed out that this wave of market correction is mainly due to investors' concerns about the changing tariff policies and their potential to lead to economic growth slowdown or even recession. Investors generally believe that the biggest pressure currently facing the market comes from the uncertainty of tariff policies, which also poses a significant threat to future economic prospects. Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, stated: "Regardless of how the final tariff policies are implemented, and whether you agree with this approach or not, we hope to have clarity as soon as possible so that businesses, households, and investors can have clear expectations and make corresponding plans accordingly."