After the recent pullback in the US stock market, there is a clear divergence in the outlook of American and European financial institutions regarding market prospects.On Tuesday, UBS and HSBC Holdings warned that the US stock market could decline further as economic risks increase. UBS believes the S&amp;P 500 index could drop by about 8% more, while HSBC has downgraded its rating on the US stock market.UBS Chief Strategist Bhanu Baweja stated that warning signals have already appeared in economic data, suggesting that the S&amp;P 500 index could fall to 5,300 points. The US market closed above 5,700 on Tuesday.<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/0cdd546f-477e-40b7-9529-42f5840b6bef.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/0cdd546f-477e-40b7-9529-42f5840b6bef.png"/>In stark contrast to the caution of European banks, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believe the worst is over.American banking giants like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have speculated in recent days that the recent stock sell-off may have ended. JP Morgan strategists predict that the risk of a significant decline due to a lack of momentum is low, while Morgan Stanley believes the market will see a tradable rebound trend.This divergence highlights the complexity of investment decisions against the backdrop of impending Trump tariff policies, uncertain economic growth, and inflation trajectories.<h2>Increasing Uncertainty, Divergence in Future Trends</h2>According to data from the Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in four years in March due to concerns over rising prices and a weakening economy, as well as escalating tariff threats. According to Guichard's analysis, the recent volatility in the US stock market may have led to a negative perception of the stock market among consumers, marking the first occurrence since the end of 2023.Additionally, data released by Bank of America on Tuesday showed that clients have become net sellers of US stocks for the first time in eight weeks. Investor confidence in the stock market has been shaken by the intermittently implemented and canceled tariff plans, which also explains why the recent buy-the-dip rebounds have been short-lived.Although the S&amp;P 500 index recently rebounded after the White House indicated plans to take a more targeted approach to tariffs coming on April 2, US tariffs could provoke reciprocal responses from targeted countries, making the economic consequences nearly unpredictable.HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner wrote in a report to clients:<blockquote>For us, the most important question is whether this exceptionally high uncertainty will completely disappear after April 2, and the probability of that seems very low.</blockquote>He also added:<blockquote>Ongoing tariff issues could further impact US leading indicators and economic data, leading to even worse performance.</blockquote>Notably, Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research have also lowered their expectations for the S&amp;P 500 index, but they still anticipate an increase in US stocks. According to the forecast data from tracked strategists, many financial institutions predict an average target value of 6,539 points for the S&amp;P 500 index by the end of 2025Among them, the lowest forecast comes from Stifel Financial Corp, at 5,500 points, while the highest forecast comes from Oppenheimer &amp; Co., at 7,100 points

UBS expects the S&P 500 index may fall to 5,300 points, while HSBC has downgraded its rating on the U.S. stock market. In contrast, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley believe the worst period is over and the market will rebound. This divergence stems from uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policy, economic growth, and inflation trajectory

- Following a recent pullback in U.S. stocks, a clear divide has emerged between American and European financial institutions regarding market outlook.  
- UBS and HSBC warn of potential further declines in the U.S. market, with UBS predicting an 8% drop in the S&P 500, while JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley believe the worst is over and anticipate a rebound.  
- Consumer confidence has hit a four-year low due to rising prices and economic concerns, complicating investment decisions amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.

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UBS Group AG

HSBC HOLDINGS

Has the recent decline in US stocks come to an end? American investment banks say "yes," while European investment banks say "not necessarily"!