KaiYuan Securities: Hydrogen energy drones begin commercial landing, with promising prospects for hydrogen energy + low-altitude blue ocean market in the future

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Kaiyuan Securities has released a research report stating that hydrogen-powered drones have core advantages over lithium battery drones in terms of high endurance, quick refueling, strong environmental adaptability, and lifespan. They possess higher work efficiency and capability boundaries, making them particularly suitable for operations under harsh conditions, such as power inspections in cold regions, long-distance logistics delivery, emergency material transportation, and long-distance surveying in remote mountainous areas, with the potential for early application in the industrial sector. Starting in 2024, the industry will enter an intensive testing phase, with sufficient preliminary technological reserves, and as commercialization takes off, rapid growth opportunities are expected to emerge. Key points from Kaiyuan Securities are as follows: Hydrogen energy is a better long-term choice for drone power, with potential market sizes of 2.14 billion and 14.13 billion yuan in 2027/2030 The hydrogen-powered drone power system mainly consists of hydrogen fuel cells, controllers, and hydrogen tanks, capable of converting the chemical energy of hydrogen fuel into electrical energy. In terms of performance, the theoretical energy density of hydrogen fuel cells is 3-5 times that of lithium batteries, with endurance reaching 3-10 hours (compared to 0.5-1 hour for lithium batteries) and a lifespan of 2000 hours or more, with refueling taking only 3-5 minutes. Additionally, it has a wide temperature range characteristic of -40℃ to 60℃. From an economic perspective, the total lifecycle cost of hydrogen-powered drones is lower, and the costs of core components such as fuel cells and hydrogen storage tanks are still on a rapid decline. The firm expects that hydrogen-powered drones will enter the critical commercialization phase from 2025 to 2027, with the market size in China expected to reach 2.14 billion and 14.13 billion yuan in 2027 and 2030, corresponding to penetration rates of 1% and 3%, with a CAGR of up to 110.7% from 2023 to 2030. Policy support + sufficient industrial technology reserves, preliminary fulfillment of large-scale orders is expected to open up the commercialization landscape Both central and local governments continue to exert efforts on the policy front. At the national level, in June 2020, the "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Power Generation System for Drones" was issued, unifying the requirements related to hydrogen fuel cells for drones. In December 2024, a seminar on the "Hydrogen Energy Drone Endurance Level Evaluation Specification" and "Technical Specification for the Heat Dissipation System of Hydrogen Fuel Cells for Drones" will be held to discuss accelerating the commercialization and industrialization process of hydrogen-powered drones. At the local level, in February 2025, cities such as Chongqing, Zhongshan, and Jiangsu have successively released policies to support the development of the hydrogen-powered drone industry and hydrogen infrastructure construction. On the industrial side, the main products have excellent performance and have laid the foundation for commercialization. In December 2024, Xieqi Hydrogen Energy received a large order worth 600 million yuan, achieving preliminary verification for large-scale commercial applications, with subsequent orders expected to continue to materialize. Companies with whole machine production and core component supply capabilities are expected to benefit Currently, the industry is still in the early stages of implementation. In terms of whole machines, Xieqi Hydrogen Energy has achieved a full industrial layout of batteries + whole machines + hydrogen production and storage; Hydrogen Aviation Technology has a rich product line and plans to produce 3,000 drones; Hydrogen Source Intelligence (in cooperation with SINOSYNERGY) possesses core technology for MOFs solid hydrogen storage, and the world's first solid hydrogen-powered drone has completed its maiden flight; In terms of components, Guofu Hydrogen Energy is a leader in domestic vehicle-mounted gas cylinders and hydrogen supply systems, collaborating with Wankel Aviation to layout the hydrogen energy low-altitude field; Yuntao Hydrogen Energy (owned by Xiongtao Co., Ltd.) is deeply engaged in hydrogen fuel cells, and the "Yunhang S20" has completed its maiden flight; Hanhydrogen Power (owned by Shenkai Co., Ltd.) has a market share of nearly 90% in domestic drone hydrogen supply systems; Jiangsu Shentong's high-pressure hydrogen valve products have been applied in transportation-related hydrogen energy drones; Shudao Equipment's hydrogen power system is currently undergoing preliminary verification; Jingcheng Shares, Longpan Technology, and China National Materials have the capability to supply high-pressure hydrogen storage bottle products for drones. Risk Warning: Risks of hydrogen energy subsidy policies not being implemented as expected, risks of slow reduction in hydrogen production and usage costs leading to economic performance not meeting expectations, risks of core component technologies such as fuel cells not developing as expected