Zhang Yidong: The Hong Kong stock index will fluctuate upwards this year and for some time in the future; the U.S. stock market will not perform as well as the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 and 2026

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on March 24th, Zhang Yidong, the global chief strategy analyst of Industrial Securities, made an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong stock market. Zhang Yidong believes that from the perspectives of capital, valuation, policy, and fundamentals, the Hong Kong stock index will experience fluctuations upward this year and in the near future, and it is still a strategic allocation period. In the short term, due to the seesaw effect of capital, the short-term market of Hong Kong stocks will show some twists and turns. However, once the negative factors are exhausted, it may lead to a smoother upward trend. Overall, in 2025 and 2026, the U.S. stock market will not perform as well as the Hong Kong stock market. He pointed out that we are currently in a calm period within the main upward wave, or the first phase of a fluctuating adjustment period. In April, especially from late March to April, due to the influx of high-volatility assets and capital chasing high prices, the chasing capital has become somewhat excited, which inevitably encounters some profit-taking pressure. However, this profit-taking adjustment actually prolongs the duration of the main upward wave of the bull market, which is beneficial for the mid-term market. Zhang Yidong believes that this calm period is essentially to alleviate investors' fear of heights, as this fear of heights is a shadow brought about by the continuous downward revaluation of Hong Kong stocks over the past four years. To break this, the continuous advancement of the AI wave is needed, and it may also require the exhaustion of negative factors. After the negative factors are exhausted, by May or June, looking upward, the Hong Kong stock market may return to a new upward path. Moreover, in March and April, the Hong Kong stock market also needs to wait for the implementation of China's stimulus and expansionary policies, especially to see whether fiscal policy, monetary policy, and industrial policy can exceed expectations. If subsequent developments can exceed expectations, as early as the end of the second quarter or as late as the third quarter, Zhang Yidong believes it can provide further upward space for the Hong Kong stock market. Therefore, overall, do not chase high prices in rhythm, but firmly hold a positive view on the logic of the bull market. However, attention should be paid to the rhythm, and based on fundamentals, solidifying the market can ensure sustainability. The focus should be on the technology bull market, firmly grasping the core assets of this AI technology market, especially the internet platform companies represented by ATM (Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi) that have ecological advantages. Zhang Yidong pointed out that every fluctuation in the Hong Kong stock market is a good opportunity to layout and allocate quality assets at low points based on the mid-term perspective. This technology breakthrough-type bull market is the main line of this round of revaluation of Chinese assets and the bull market in the Chinese stock market. Optimistically, this time, China's technology assets, particularly the strongest companies, may usher in an 8-year Juglar cycle, which is an 8-year expansion period.