According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, stated that based on the strong performance of the Passenger Car Association data in February 2025, the old-for-new subsidy policy has driven the sales of new energy vehicles and the total volume of passenger cars in February. Considering the favorable policy orientation of national promotional expenses in 2025 and future environmental change trends, the Passenger Car Association's forecasting team has raised the industry annual forecast for 2025 based on the unexpected increase in February and the rolling forecast for the next four months. With the external uncertain environment in early April, there is also a possibility of downward adjustments in future forecasts.
2025 Passenger Car Retail Forecast: 23.64 million passenger cars, an increase of 3%, with the total forecast increasing by 210,000 units compared to the February forecast;
2025 Passenger Car Export Forecast: 5.28 million passenger cars, an increase of 10%, with the total forecast remaining the same as the February forecast;
2025 New Energy Passenger Car Wholesale Forecast: 16.14 million new energy passenger cars, an increase of 32%, with the total forecast increasing by 490,000 units compared to the February forecast, and a new energy wholesale penetration rate of 56%;
2025 National Automobile Wholesale Forecast: 32.97 million units, an increase of 5%, with the total forecast increasing by 310,000 units compared to the February forecast.
1. The national passenger car market's March forecast index and February satisfaction index both exceed 90%
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a0a6cf05e1c3559945760735c90fdd51.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a0a6cf05e1c3559945760735c90fdd51.jpg"/>
The monthly market performance is evaluated based on the PMI index setting and evaluation results. According to the summary calculations of internal personnel forecasts from manufacturers, the internal market forecasting team was optimistic about the February passenger car market's pre-month forecast at 56%, and the satisfaction assessment for early March after February was 90%. Currently, the optimism for the March 2025 market has reached 98%, marking a recent strong market outlook. The sales from manufacturers in February exceeded retail in the car market, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. The forecast for March this year is also relatively optimistic, reflecting strong growth momentum in the car market.
From the current inventory level of 3.08 million units and the expected market growth in the coming months, the industry's inventory digestion pressure is not significant. Given the current differentiated trends brought about by the price promotion war, car companies need to track policy environments and market changes in a timely manner, cautiously set production and sales rhythms, and carefully increase inventory based on the dealer inventory structure, while promptly clearing historical inventory.
2. The overall start of 2025 is better than expected
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/11067693c1c395753c51c1b0c7ec4ad4.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/11067693c1c395753c51c1b0c7ec4ad4.jpg"/>
Except for the early or late factors of the Spring Festival in 2017 and 2018, this year's February saw an extremely high peak in passenger car retail after the Spring Festival, with a cumulative retail of 3.18 million vehicles in January and February, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Driven by the growth of new energy and the policy push after the Spring Festival, the recovery of positive growth in January and February this year is strong.
Since the beginning of 2025, the overall economic and policy operations face challenges but are more optimistic. Firstly, China's current external environment is better than expected, and the tariff policy since Trump's administration has been more gradual towards China. China has reasonable grounds to respond, as it still has a competitive advantage with lower prices and lower tariff rates, providing a buffer space.
Secondly, confidence in the high-tech industry's ability to overtake in curves has strengthened. The emergence of Deepseek has made it possible to replicate the most advanced models at low computing power costs, making the previously perceived absolute leadership of the U.S. in the AI field more uncertain. This also means that the U.S. has not fully achieved its goal of constraining China's high-tech industry. China can still achieve better development, and China and the U.S. may become equally matched competitors in high-tech, significantly boosting domestic industry confidence and market sentiment.
Currently, there is determination, willingness, and consensus regarding the macro economy. Firstly, the strategy for high-quality development is reasonable and orderly in response to the trade war, with proactive and orderly policy deployment, unlike the recent policy changes by the U.S. government that have raised global concerns. At the same time, there is a consensus that there is a clear understanding of the main contradictions in China's economy, and the economic data for the first two months of this year exceeded market expectations. The optimistic sentiment of international experts regarding China's economic prospects is rising, with representatives from the international business community stating: investing in China is investing in the future. The political environment in the U.S. may lead foreign investors to prefer entering the Chinese market.
3. Uncertainty Factors Affecting Forecast Adjustments for 2025
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a823a6ce45cc52c0eca4c5c93237362a.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a823a6ce45cc52c0eca4c5c93237362a.jpg"/>
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, due to sanctions and material shortages, international car companies have successively exited the Russian market. Chinese car companies have gradually risen in the Russian market from 2021 to 2022, especially in 2023, seizing the relatively strong domestic market demand in Russia while supply was insufficient, achieving a market share of over 50%. In some months of 2024, this share even exceeded 60%, demonstrating strong growth for Chinese car companies. However, after reaching a 67% share in the third quarter of 2024, the domestic share has continued to decline in recent months, dropping to 56% in January and February 2025.
Recently, due to other countries' car companies exiting Russia, Chinese car companies quickly ensured the supply demand for vehicles in Russia in 2023. Currently, Chinese car companies in Russia should be temporarily safe, but it is still necessary to cautiously observe the changes in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/77b9c6bc6175b78257a406ff6d69f78e.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/77b9c6bc6175b78257a406ff6d69f78e.jpg"/>
In 2021, the average export price was $16,000, in 2022 it rose to $18,000, and in 2023 it increased to $19,000, showing a continuous upward trend. The average export price is projected to be $18,000 in 2024 and $17,000 in 2025, indicating a continued decline in average export prices, with Tesla's export share decreasing leading to price drops.
Due to significant changes in the Russian market and the exit of other foreign capital, China's exports to Russia have increased since 2023. Chinese car companies are expected to perform strongly in Russia in 2024, with a potential return to full competition this year. Last year, exports were largely directed to Belgium, while this year, the economic and social conflicts in Europe have led to a decline in export performance.
Recently, the Mexican market has performed strongly, with no impact from the increased tariffs in Europe and the United States in February. The car markets in Chile, Peru, and Thailand saw a sharp decline in 2023 but are expected to recover in 2024. Asia continues to see good performance in the Saudi and Bangladeshi markets.
4. 2025 Rolling Forecast Remains Stable
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/49f7474fedc19c5b3681ad4d45f49a8b.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/49f7474fedc19c5b3681ad4d45f49a8b.jpg"/>
The Passenger Car Association's forecasting team has been making monthly and annual forecasts since 2009, and the current accuracy of their predictions is relatively good. The forecast for 2024 is 22.3 million units, but due to a strong performance in January, the initial forecast for the year was a 4% increase. Subsequently, due to factors such as price wars, the growth rate gradually declined to 21.6 million units by July. With the unexpected strength of subsidies for replacing old cars using long-term national bonds, the optimism in forecasts has significantly rebounded, rising to a 3% annual forecast in October, 5% in November, and nearly 6% in early December, ultimately achieving a growth rate of 5.5%, which is two percentage points better than the initial forecast.
The retail forecast for passenger cars in 2025 is 23.64 million units, an increase of 3%, with the total forecast increasing by 210,000 units compared to the February forecast.
The Passenger Car Association's forecasting team predicts that by the end of 2024, the domestic retail forecast for 2025 will be 23.3 million units, an increase of 2%. In early February 2025, the annual forecast for 2025 was set at 23.43 million units, about 130,000 units higher than the initial annual forecast, with an annual growth rate of 2%. Due to the retail figure of 1.39 million units in February being better than the monthly forecast, the retail forecast for March to June was adjusted upward in mid-March, resulting in a rolling forecast for 2025 of 23.64 million units, an increase of 3%, with the total forecast increasing by 210,000 units compared to the February forecast, and the overall optimism for 2025's forecast is better among the forecasters in mid-March
2025 Passenger Car Export Forecast: In 2025, passenger car exports are expected to reach 5.28 million units, an increase of 10%, with the forecast remaining flat compared to the prediction made in February.
Regarding the performance of passenger car exports, the March forecast for the entire year of 2025 is 5.28 million units, which is basically unchanged from the February forecast. Currently, the prediction has not been significantly adjusted from the 10% forecast made at the beginning of the year, mainly considering the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine situation and the uncertainty of U.S. influence. Although exports to Russia have sharply declined, the current performance of Russia's independent retail is still good. Additionally, the abnormal export of foreign-funded new energy vehicles in February has been noted, so further adjustments to expectations will be made after April 2, when the U.S. imposes tariffs on imported cars and the Russia-Ukraine situation becomes clearer.
2025 New Energy Passenger Car Wholesale Forecast: In 2025, new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 16.14 million units, an increase of 32%, with the forecast total increasing by 490,000 units compared to the February prediction, and a wholesale penetration rate of 56%.
In 2024, the national passenger car manufacturers' sales are expected to be 12.23 million units, significantly better than predicted. This is due to the decline in new energy vehicle prices, along with the national scrapping and updating policies and the subsidies for replacing old vehicles being higher than those for fuel vehicles by 5,000 yuan, collectively resulting in an unexpected effect of promoting the replacement of fuel vehicles. For the 2025 new energy passenger car forecast, the February estimate remained at 15.65 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28%. In March, it was raised to 16.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%, which is an increase of 490,000 units compared to the February forecast. With the push against involution and the promotion of intelligent technology, the March forecast for new energy passenger cars has significantly increased compared to the annual forecast of 15.7 million units, mainly due to the unexpected increase in February and the expected increase in new energy vehicle sales from March to June.
2025 National Automobile Wholesale Forecast: In 2025, it is expected to reach 32.97 million units, an increase of 5%, with the forecast total increasing by 310,000 units compared to the February prediction.
In 2024, the national automobile manufacturers' wholesale sales are expected to be 31.44 million units, an increase of 5%. At the end of 2024, the forecast for 2025 automobile sales was set at 32.5 million units, an increase of 4%. In mid-February 2025, the forecast for national automobile sales was 32.67 million units, an increase of 4%, mainly noting that the effects of the scrapping and updating policies had not yet been clearly reflected. In mid-March 2025, the forecast for national automobile sales was raised to 32.97 million units, an increase of 5%. Although there are concerns about exports, the increase in scrapping and updating and the replacement of old vehicles has reflected an increase, thus adjusting the expectations for the short-term increase brought about by policies, leading to a rolling adjustment of the annual forecast

TSLA

Cui Dongshu predicts that retail sales of passenger cars will reach 23.64 million units in 2025, an increase of 3%, which is an increase of 210,000 units compared to the February forecast. It is expected that passenger car exports will reach 5.28 million units in 2025, an increase of 10%; wholesale of new energy passenger cars will reach 16.14 million units, an increase of 32%. National automobile wholesale is expected to reach 32.97 million units, an increase of 5%. The market optimism in March reached 98%, and there is not much pressure on inventory digestion

- The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) has revised its 2025 automotive industry forecasts based on strong February sales driven by trade-in subsidies for new energy vehicles.  
- The updated predictions include a retail forecast of 23.64 million passenger cars, a 3% increase, and a wholesale forecast of 32% growth for new energy vehicles, reaching 16.14 million units.  
- Despite external uncertainties, the overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth in the automotive sector throughout 2025.

Cui Dongshu: Predicts 23.64 million retail passenger cars in 2025, an increase of 3%