U.S. inflation unexpectedly cools, with March core CPI recording the lowest year-on-year growth rate in four years, and CPI experiencing its first month-on-month decline in nearly five years. However, the threat of an escalating trade war has overshadowed the positive effects of slowing inflation, becoming the focus of market attention. Investor concerns have taken precedence, leading to a sell-off of U.S. assets such as U.S. stocks and the dollar, while safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc, yen, and gold have all risen.
According to CCTV News, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded on Thursday regarding whether China would negotiate with the U.S. on tariff issues, stating that they are open to talks; if fighting is necessary, they will accompany to the end. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong clarified China's stern position in a letter to the media, mentioning that those who attempt to wield tariffs to force countries around the world to surrender should never expect to receive a call from China.
U.S. stocks failed to maintain the significant rebound from Wednesday, with the three major U.S. stock indices at one point dropping over 5%. The S&amp;P 500 index fell over 6%, nearing a circuit breaker. The dollar index recorded its largest single-day drop since 2022. Long-term bonds faced increased selling pressure, continuing to push up the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rising over 10 basis points at one point. However, after the release of the U.S. March CPI, long-term bond yields narrowed their gains, and the decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield expanded, plunging over 10 basis points at one point.
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Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and yen rebounded strongly, with the Swiss franc rising nearly 4% against the dollar, marking the largest intraday increase since 2015. Gold, also a safe-haven asset, accelerated its rise, with spot gold reaching a new intraday historical high for the first time in a week. International crude oil returned to a downward trend due to ongoing concerns about the trade war, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report significantly lowering oil price expectations due to tariffs and their uncertain impact on the economy, causing U.S. oil to drop nearly 6% at one point.
Record gold prices and the lowest dollar index in two years not only indicate the current uncertainty and volatility but also reflect the ongoing loss of confidence among global investors in the notion of American exceptionalism.
Global investors seem to be continuously losing confidence in American exceptionalism, with U.S. sovereign risk soaring and U.S. CDS spreads sharply widening. Changes in CDS spreads can reflect changes in the credit risk of sovereign debt, and current data shows that the situation is nearly as dire as that of Italy and Greece.
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The sell-off of the dollar by investors, combined with renewed inflows into the gold market, seems to suggest this point. The dollar index fell over 2% during the day, marking the largest single-day drop since 2022, while the safe-haven Swiss franc rose nearly 4%, the yen appreciated over 2%, and the offshore yuan rose over 700 points to recover 7.30.
Spot gold broke through $3,170 intraday for the first time in history, rising about 3%. New York futures gold reached a daily high of $3,195, approaching the intraday historical peak of over $3,200 set on April 2
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The three major indices once again closed lower, with the S&amp;P hitting a day low during the session, dropping over 6%, close to the 7% first-level circuit breaker point, and narrowing its decline to 3.46% by the end of trading. The Nasdaq fell over 7% during the session, ultimately closing down 737.66 points, a decline of 4.31%. The Dow Jones dropped 2.50%, closing at 39,593.66 points. The &#34;Tech Seven Sisters&#34; suffered heavy losses, with Tesla down 7.27%, Meta Platforms down 6.74%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 7.97%. Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with popular Chinese concept stocks Li Auto up 4.7% and XPeng up 2.7%.
<blockquote>
U.S. stock market three major indices:
<ul>
<li>
The S&amp;P 500 Index closed down 188.85 points, a decline of 3.46%, closing at 5,268.05 points.
</li>
<li>
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,014.79 points, a decline of 2.50%, closing at 39,593.66 points.
</li>
<li>
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 737.66 points, a decline of 4.31%, closing at 16,387.31 points. The Nasdaq 100 Index closed down 801.49 points, a decline of 4.19%, closing at 18,343.57 points.
</li>
<li>
The VIX volatility index saw an intraday increase of up to 63.0%, ultimately rising to 47 points compared to yesterday.
</li>
</ul>
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Aerospace industry ETF leads the decline among U.S. industry ETFs:
<ul>
<li>
The global aerospace industry ETF closed down 8.69%, the semiconductor ETF down 6.93%, the energy industry ETF down 6.53%, and the regional bank ETF down 6.14%.
</li>
<li>
The banking industry ETF, technology industry ETF, biotechnology index ETF, global technology stock index ETF, consumer discretionary ETF, and internet stock index ETF fell between 5.89% and 3.89%.
</li>
</ul>
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The &#34;Tech Seven Sisters&#34; suffered heavy losses:
<ul>
<li>
The U.S. tech giants (Magnificent 7) index fell 6.67%, closing at 137.73 points.
</li>
<li>
Tesla closed down 7.27%, Meta Platforms down 6.74%, NVIDIA down 5.91%, Amazon down 5.24%, Apple down 4.24%, Google A down 3.71%, and Microsoft down 2.34%.
</li>
</ul>
Chip stocks:
<ul>
<li>
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 7.97%, closing at 3,893.30 points
</li>
<li>
AMD fell 8.41%, and TSMC ADR dropped 4.8%.
</li>
</ul>
AI Concept Stocks:
<ul>
<li>Applovin closed down 4.05%, Tempus AI suffered a heavy blow, down 7.99%.</li>
</ul>
Chinese Concept Stocks Mixed:
<ul>
<li>
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.14%, at 6405.21 points.
</li>
<li>
Popular Chinese concept stocks: Li Auto rose 4.7%, XPeng rose 2.7%, JD.com rose 1.3%, Tencent ADR closed flat, Alibaba fell 1.7%, Pinduoduo fell 6.1%, Pony.ai initially closed down 10.6%.
</li>
</ul>
Other Key Stocks:
<ul>
<li>
Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, under Buffett, fell 1.07%.
</li>
<li>
The &#34;Trump Tariff Losers&#34; index closed down about 5.8%, with all constituent stocks declining; FLNC fell 12.67%, Helen Troy and Wayfair fell over 11%, Neway, Harley-Davidson, and Aptiv fell over 9%, Nike fell 8.29%, leading the declines.
</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
European stock indices rose broadly, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 index closing up 4.26%. Among the &#34;Eleven Warriors&#34; of European stocks, SAP rose nearly 7.3%, and ASML rose 4.2%. European chip concept stocks generally rose, with Infineon up 5.89% and ASM International up 4.99%.
<blockquote>
Pan-European Stocks:
<ul>
<li>
The European STOXX 600 index closed up 3.70%, at 487.28 points.
</li>
<li>
The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 4.26%, at 4818.92 points.
</li>
</ul>
Stock Indices Rose Broadly:
<ul>
<li>
The stock indices of Germany, France, Italy, and the UK rose by more than 4.7% at most.
</li>
<li>
The Danish OMX Copenhagen 20 index rose 3.10%, and the Copenhagen 25 index rose 4.55%.
</li>
</ul>
Sectors and Stocks:
<ul>
<li>
The FTSE Italy Bank Index rose about 7%.
</li>
<li>
European chip concept stocks generally rose, with Infineon up 5.89%, ASM International, Soitec, and ASML rising up to 4.99%.
</li>
<li>
ASML Holding's stock price in Amsterdam (ASML.NA) rose 4.20%, at €577.60.
</li>
</ul>
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</blockquote>
The sell-off of U.S. long-term bonds intensified, continuing to push up the yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rising more than 10 basis points at one point. After the release of the U.S. March CPI, the decline in the yield of the two-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, widened, plunging more than 10 basis points at one point.
<blockquote>
U.S. Treasury Bonds:
<ul>
<li>
At the New York close, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 9.34 basis points, reaching a daily high of 4.4249%, fluctuating upward throughout the day
</li>
<li>
The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury fell by about 4.77 basis points to 3.8620%.
</li>
<li>
The yield on the 20-year U.S. Treasury rose by 11.32 basis points to 4.9033%, continuing to fluctuate upward throughout the day; the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury rose by 12.75 basis points to 4.8692%.
</li>
</ul>
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European Bonds:
<ul>
<li>
At the end of the European market, the yield on the German 10-year government bond fell by 1.1 basis points to 2.580%, trading within a range of 2.719%-2.567% during the day.
</li>
<li>
The yield on the two-year German bond rose by 6.1 basis points to 1.786%, while the yield on the 30-year German bond fell by 0.4 basis points to 2.960%.
</li>
<li>
At the end of the European market, the yield on the UK 10-year government bond fell by 13.6 basis points to 4.643%, after a &#34;gap down&#34; opening, it fluctuated downward throughout the day.
</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
The U.S. dollar index recorded its largest single-day drop since 2022. Safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen rebounded strongly, with the Swiss franc rising nearly 4% against the U.S. dollar, marking the largest intraday gain since 2015. Bitcoin fell back below $80,000.
<blockquote>
U.S. Dollar Plummets:
<ul>
<li>
At the end of New York trading, the ICE U.S. dollar index fell by 1.89% to 100.953 points.
</li>
<li>
The Bloomberg U.S. dollar index fell by 1.42% to 1246.76 points, trading within a range of 1264.57-1243.11 points during the day.
</li>
</ul>
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Non-U.S. Currencies:
<ul>
<li>
At the end of New York trading, the euro rose by 2% against the U.S. dollar to 1.1186.
</li>
<li>
The U.S. dollar fell by 3.68% against the Swiss franc to 0.8254; the euro fell by 1.64% against the Swiss franc to 0.92333, approaching the bottom of 0.92063 on November 22, 2024.
</li>
</ul>
Yen Exchange Rate Approaches 144:
<ul>
<li>
At the end of New York trading, the U.S. dollar fell by 2.00% against the Japanese yen to 144.80 yen.
</li>
<li>
The euro rose by 0.09% against the Japanese yen to 161.96 yen; the British pound fell by 0.92% against the Japanese yen to 187.640 yen.
</li>
</ul>
Offshore Renminbi:
<ul>
<li>At the end of New York trading, the offshore renminbi (CNH) was quoted at 7.3094 against the U.S. dollar, up 366 points from Wednesday's New York close, trading within a range of 7.3717-7.2995 during the day.</li>
</ul>
Cryptocurrency:
<ul>
<li>At the end of New York trading, spot Bitcoin fell by 4%, Ethereum fell by 8.4%, Cardano fell by 5.6%, and Solana fell by 5.8%</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract fell 3.37% compared to Wednesday's New York close, reported at $79,835. CME Ether futures DCR main contract fell 8.87%, reported at $1,520.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
Commodities are still affected by tariffs, and the U.S. Department of Energy has lowered its oil price forecast for this year and next, cutting the global oil demand growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day. WTI crude oil prices briefly fell below the key $60 level, closing at $60.28 per barrel in New York, but the decline still exceeded 3%.
<blockquote>
Crude Oil:
<ul>
<li>
In New York close, WTI crude oil futures fell 3.32%, reported at $60.28 per barrel.
</li>
<li>
Brent crude oil futures fell 3.04%, reported at $63.49.
</li>
</ul>
Natural Gas:
<ul>
<li>NYMEX natural gas futures fell 7.97%, reported at $3.512 per million British thermal units.</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
Spot gold broke $3,170 intraday for the first time in history, rising about 3%. New York gold futures hit a daily high of $3,195, approaching the intraday historical high of $3,200 set on April 2. COMEX silver futures rose 2.35%, reported at $31.120 per ounce. COMEX copper futures fell 1.93%.
<blockquote>
Gold:
<ul>
<li>
In New York close, spot gold rose 3.02%, reported at $3,175.89 per ounce, setting a new historical high.
</li>
<li>
COMEX gold futures rose 3.59%, reported at $3,190.00 per ounce, approaching the historical high of $3,201.60 set on April 2.
</li>
</ul>
Silver:
<ul>
<li>
In New York close, spot silver rose 0.58%, reported at $31.2175 per ounce.
</li>
<li>
COMEX silver futures rose 2.35%, reported at $31.120 per ounce.
</li>
</ul>
Other Metals:
<ul>
<li>
In New York close, COMEX copper futures fell 1.93%, reported at $4.3850 per pound.
</li>
<li>
LME copper futures closed up $375, reported at $8,988 per ton. LME aluminum futures closed up $54, reported at $2,370 per ton. LME zinc futures closed up $83, reported at $2,641 per ton.
</li>
<li>
LME tin futures closed up $834, reported at $30,658 per ton
</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>

GBTC

Tesla closed down over 7%, and the chip index fell 8%. The pan-European stock index rebounded nearly 4%. After the U.S. CPI, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged more than 10 basis points during the session. During the session, the U.S. dollar index fell over 2% to a six-month low, the Swiss franc rose nearly 4%, the Japanese yen rose over 2%, and the offshore renminbi rose over 700 points to recover 7.30. Bitcoin fell over $5,000. During the session, spot gold rose 3%, and U.S. oil once fell nearly 6%

- U.S. inflation unexpectedly cooled in March, with core CPI reaching its lowest year-on-year growth in four years, while the CPI saw its first month-on-month decline in five years.  
- However, escalating trade war threats overshadowed the positive inflation news, leading to a sell-off in U.S. assets like stocks and the dollar, while safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, yen, and gold surged.  
- The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.46% and the Nasdaq falling 4.31%, as investor sentiment turned negative amid rising concerns over U.S. sovereign risk.

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The U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets face a triple whammy, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4%, the Swiss franc experiencing its strongest daily gain in ten years, and gold reaching new highs