CITIC Securities: Downgraded the forecast for Macau's total gaming revenue growth in 2025, with Galaxy Entertainment as the top pick

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that although the total gaming revenue (GGR) in Macau is expected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the EBITDA of the Macau gaming industry is projected to decline by 6% year-on-year to USD 1.897 billion due to a decrease in overall profit margins. Currently, the expected EV/EBITDA trading multiple for the industry in 2026 is 7.2 times. The firm prefers Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China. The firm expects that the total gaming revenue growth for 2025 will remain nearly stagnant, lowering its full-year growth expectation from 4% to 2%, which is 1 percentage point lower than institutional expectations, while also reducing the industry EBITDA forecast for 2025-2026 by 2%, and lowering the target EV/EBITDA multiple and target stock price