Bank of America 15-year survey strongest warning: Trade war ignites global economic recession as number one "black swan"

According to the latest global fund manager survey by Bank of America, the threat of a global economic recession triggered by a trade war resulting from the Trump administration's policies has become the most severe tail risk in the current market. The survey results highlight global investors' ongoing concerns about geopolitical tensions and their cascading effects on financial markets. The survey shows that as many as 80% of the fund managers surveyed listed "trade war leading to global recession" as the primary tail risk facing the current market. This consensus ratio marks a historical peak in the 15 years since Bank of America began conducting this survey. In addition to concerns about the trade war, fund managers are also paying attention to other risk factors, but to a relatively lesser extent. Among them, "inflationary pressures forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively" ranks as the second risk with a 10% vote share. 7% of respondents view "foreign capital withdrawal triggering a dollar collapse" as a major threat. Only 1% of respondents pointed out that "artificial intelligence bubble" is the biggest market risk. This heightened focus on trade war and recession risks indicates that geopolitical instability is increasingly dominating investor sentiment. Especially in the context of a fragile post-pandemic global economic recovery and ongoing adjustments in major central bank policies, market sensitivity is particularly pronounced. The chart below shows the historical distribution of tail risks provided by Bank of America: