<div id="readability-page-1"><div>The first-quarter semiconductor earnings parade kicks off with ASML Holding ASML on Wednesday and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSM on Thursday, followed by the U.S. semi and semicap peers in the following week.For U.S. chip vendors, BofA Securities analysts Vivek Arya and Duksan Jang expect first-quarter results to beat as their original outlook was likely conservative and tariff-related pull-ins created a better demand environment.However, the second-quarter outlook could be in line as companies could widen the guidance range.Also Read: Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA Drop Amid Fresh Trade War Fears, Revenue RiskRegarding tariff impact, Arya and Jang expect U.S. chip companies to follow the example of early reporting companies Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, Texas Instruments Inc TXN, and Lam Research Corp LRCX.The analysts generically express concern on second-half demand headwinds and quantified gross margin headwinds from inflationary supply chain movements (such as Nvidia Corp NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD) and higher U.S. sourcing.Overall, semi-industry overhangs could persist pending clarity on new sectoral tariff rates (next several weeks), China retaliation, U.S. reciprocal tariffs, and AI diffusion rules (May 15).On the positive side, despite some downside to estimates, valuation has become more compelling for high-quality areas in cloud/AI (Nvidia, Broadcom Inc AVGO), design software (Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS, Synopsys, Inc SNPS) and semicap (Lam Research, KLA Corp KLAC).The analysts laid down two potential scenarios, which are modest tariff impact and dire tariff impact. Their modest scenario aligns with limited China and reciprocal tariffs, while the dire scenario implies the implementation of specific sectoral tariffs on semis/electronics (tariff rates not yet announced).In a modest scenario, tariffs could drive roughly ~4% hit to calendar 2025 sales and ~6% hit to calendar 2026 versus current consensus, with EPS declines mostly ranging between 5%-25% (12%-13% average) inclusive of 150bps gross margin hit.In a dire scenario, estimates could be further pushed down, with a 9% and 12% sales decline in calendar 2025 and 2026 and EPS declines mostly ranging between 15%-50% (25%-30% average) inclusive of a 500bps gross margin hit.For revenue impact, the analysts noted companies with AI/cloud/industrial exposures to fare better in a potential tariff-induced demand downturn.At the same time, those with consumer/auto are at greater risk. Nvidia, Lam Research, Cadence Design Systems, Synopsys, and Applied Materials, Inc AMAT are among the companies with the least potential sales impact (at -1% to -6% sales impact), while Arm Holdings ARM, Intel Corp INTC, NXP Semiconductors NXPI, ON Semiconductor Corp ON could fare worse (at -7% to -9% impact).Importantly, even under the above distressed EPS scenario (dire tariffs), Nvidia, Micron Technology, Inc. MU, Synopsys, and Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL have a 30%+ potential upside to historical P/E or PEG multiple at current stock price.In a modest tariff scenario, the EPS hits of 12%-13% (2-2.5 times sales) are well below the 30%-40% reductions the analysts have seen in prior market downturns. However, the primary concern is PE multiple compression due to enhanced market risks.The SOX index is currently trading at ~18 times forward PE, below the broader SPX at ~20 times, though above the 12-14 times PE at prior semi-industry downturns. Notably, the SOX index has more than given up the ~20% PE premium it gained during AI-fueled stock gains in calendar 2023 and 2024.Read Next:<ul><li>AMD Flags $800 Million Risk From New US Chip Export Rules As China Tariffs Add Pressure</li></ul>Photo via Shutterstock </div></div>

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. 

According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

NVIDIA Financial Results for Q4 Fiscal 2025

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NVDA

ASML

The semiconductor earnings season begins with ASML and TSMC reporting. Analysts expect U.S. chip companies to outperform initial conservative forecasts, aided by tariff-related demand. However, second-quarter outlooks may align with broader guidance. Concerns persist over potential tariff impacts, with two scenarios outlined: modest and dire. Companies like Nvidia and Lam Research are expected to face minimal sales impact, while Intel and others may see greater declines. Despite potential EPS hits, some firms could experience significant upside in valuations. The SOX index trades at a forward PE of ~18, below the SPX's ~20.

- The first-quarter semiconductor earnings season begins with ASML and TSMC reporting, with analysts expecting U.S. chip vendors to exceed conservative forecasts due to improved demand.  
- Concerns remain about second-half demand and inflationary pressures, with potential tariff impacts leading to varying sales and EPS declines depending on the scenario.  
- Despite challenges, high-quality sectors in cloud and AI may offer compelling valuations, while the SOX index trades below historical premiums, indicating market risks ahead.

These Semiconductor Stocks To Face Least Tariffs Impact Compared To Intel