Is there a recession in the United States? The market is closely watching tonight's PMI!

As the tariff storm disrupts the U.S. economy and concerns about economic slowdown loom over the market, tonight's U.S. PMI data may reveal whether the U.S. is in recession, while weak data will further impact U.S. stocks and the dollar. At 21:45 Beijing time on Wednesday, S&P Global will release the preliminary April Markit PMI for the U.S. Bloomberg's survey expects the composite PMI index for April to drop to 52.2, down from 53.5 in March. The manufacturing PMI preliminary value is expected to fall from 50.2 to 49, returning to contraction territory. Among them, the input price index in the U.S. manufacturing PMI is particularly noteworthy, as this indicator rose to its fastest increase in nearly two years in March, reflecting intensified cost pressures on businesses. Analysts expect that the April data may rise further under tariff pressures. In addition, the decline in new orders may signal widespread economic contraction, and the employment sub-index will also reflect companies' willingness to hire. In the context of severe market volatility and tariff uncertainties, today's PMI data performance is particularly important. A series of weak PMI data will increase the risk of further declines in U.S. stocks and the dollar, exacerbating negative market sentiment. Analysts indicate that if the PMI is more pessimistic than expected, U.S. stocks are likely to face larger sell-offs. If market attention to the PMI index decreases, they may likely focus on the ISM index released in early May. Against the backdrop of the current threat to the political independence of the Federal Reserve, weakening PMI and ISM manufacturing data will put greater pressure on the dollar. When the U.S. PMI performs worse than that of other developed countries (as is the case now), it typically leads to a weaker dollar