Recently, the team of Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Apollo, used charts to illustrate how American consumers and businesses are responding to tariffs.
According to Apollo's charts, the impact of tariffs on American businesses has become evident. New orders are declining, capital expenditure plans are decreasing, inventories are rising before the tariffs take effect, and companies are lowering their profit expectations.
For ordinary American households, the consumer confidence index has fallen to a historic low. To avoid price increases caused by tariffs, consumers have rushed to purchase goods ahead of the tariff implementation, undoubtedly overextending future purchasing power. At the same time, the tourism industry, especially international travel, is also showing signs of slowing down.
<h2>Apollo: Economic recession may begin in summer 2025</h2>
Apollo analyzed the process of economic recession from April 2025 to summer. Factors such as tariff adjustments and extended transportation times have led to supply chain disruptions, which in turn affect economic activity. Ultimately, the U.S. may enter a recession in summer 2025. Specifically:
April 2:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. announces reciprocal tariffs;</li>
<li>20-40 days – container shipping time.</li>
</ul>
Early to mid-May:
<ul>
<li>A sharp decrease in container arrivals at U.S. ports;</li>
<li>1-10 days – truck/rail transport time from ports to cities.</li>
</ul>
Mid to late May:
<ul>
<li>A sharp decrease in inland freight volume in the U.S.;</li>
<li>Market shelves begin to empty, and businesses need to cope with reduced sales.</li>
</ul>
Late May to early June:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. freight and retail industries begin layoffs;</li>
<li>Summer 2025 – the U.S. enters recession.</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ccded93d-3591-4b22-bf7b-a42380d28804.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ccded93d-3591-4b22-bf7b-a42380d28804.png"/>
Tariffs have led to the largest decline in S&amp;P 500 companies' earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the next 12 months since 2020:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a6dc8ade-d798-46d1-9ecc-7245ad6da34a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a6dc8ade-d798-46d1-9ecc-7245ad6da34a.png"/>
Tariffs have caused a collapse in new orders:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb780ce-a4ec-48d1-8070-a167de828214.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb780ce-a4ec-48d1-8070-a167de828214.png"/>
And a sharp reversal in corporate capital expenditure plans:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a5a2c3a-b73e-46e2-8b00-eff1b062c561.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a5a2c3a-b73e-46e2-8b00-eff1b062c561.png"/>
Increased cost pressures on businesses, rising prices:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/530a1994-844a-4e3d-94c0-6b84c48f6faf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/530a1994-844a-4e3d-94c0-6b84c48f6faf.png"/>
Rapid Increase in Corporate Inventory Before Tariff Takes Effect:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9b78709b-ce0e-4d45-a851-790dcda2077d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9b78709b-ce0e-4d45-a851-790dcda2077d.png"/>
<h2>Corporate Executives' Concerns About Economic Recession</h2>
Apollo also listed quotes from some well-known corporate executives over the past week, reflecting their views on the current economic situation.
Southwest Airlines CEO Robert Jordan stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;I don't care what you call it, in this industry, this is a recession.&#34;
</blockquote>
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said:
<blockquote>
&#34;Due to concerns about the economy, consumers are reducing their frequency of dining out, which is their main reason for saving money.&#34;
</blockquote>
PepsiCo CFO Jamie Caulfield stated:
<blockquote>
&#34;Compared to three months ago, we may not feel as good about consumers now.&#34;
</blockquote>

Apollo pointed out that the impact of tariffs on American businesses and households has already become apparent. Based on the current timeline of tariffs, it is expected that the United States will enter a recession by the summer of 2025

- Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk's team illustrates how U.S. consumers and businesses are responding to tariffs, revealing a decline in new orders and capital expenditure plans.  
- Consumer confidence has hit a historic low, prompting households to make early purchases to avoid price increases, which may deplete future spending power, while the tourism sector shows signs of slowing down.  
- The analysis predicts a potential economic recession in the summer of 2025 due to tariff adjustments and supply chain disruptions, with significant impacts on corporate earnings and employment in the freight and retail sectors.

This may be the most important chart at the moment