Recently, the team led by Apollo's Chief Economist Torsten Sløk illustrated how American consumers and businesses are responding to tariffs.
According to Apollo's charts, the impact of tariffs on American businesses is already evident. New orders are declining, capital expenditure plans are decreasing, inventories are rising before the tariffs take effect, and companies are lowering their profit expectations.
For the average American household, the consumer confidence index has fallen to a historic low. To avoid price increases caused by tariffs, consumers have rushed to purchase goods ahead of the tariff implementation, undoubtedly exhausting future purchasing power. At the same time, the tourism industry, especially international travel, is also showing signs of slowing down.
<h2>Apollo: Economic recession may begin in the summer of 2025</h2>
Apollo analyzed the economic recession process from April 2025 to the summer. Factors such as tariff adjustments and extended transportation times have led to supply chain disruptions, which in turn affect economic activity. Ultimately, the U.S. may enter a recession in the summer of 2025. Specifically:
April 2:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. announces reciprocal tariffs;</li>
<li>20-40 days – container shipping time.</li>
</ul>
Early May to mid-May:
<ul>
<li>The volume of containers arriving at U.S. ports plummets;</li>
<li>1-10 days – truck/rail transport time from ports to cities.</li>
</ul>
Mid-May to late May:
<ul>
<li>Inland freight volume in the U.S. drops sharply;</li>
<li>Market shelves begin to empty, and businesses need to cope with reduced sales.</li>
</ul>
Late May to early June:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. freight and retail industries begin layoffs;</li>
<li>Summer 2025 – the U.S. enters recession.</li>
</ul>
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ccded93d-3591-4b22-bf7b-a42380d28804.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/ccded93d-3591-4b22-bf7b-a42380d28804.png"/>
Tariffs have led to the largest decline in the expected earnings per share (EPS) for S&amp;P 500 companies over the next 12 months since 2020:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a6dc8ade-d798-46d1-9ecc-7245ad6da34a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/a6dc8ade-d798-46d1-9ecc-7245ad6da34a.png"/>
Tariffs have caused a collapse in new orders:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb780ce-a4ec-48d1-8070-a167de828214.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dfb780ce-a4ec-48d1-8070-a167de828214.png"/>
And a sharp reversal in corporate capital expenditure plans:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a5a2c3a-b73e-46e2-8b00-eff1b062c561.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a5a2c3a-b73e-46e2-8b00-eff1b062c561.png"/>
Increased cost pressures on businesses, rising prices:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/530a1994-844a-4e3d-94c0-6b84c48f6faf.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/530a1994-844a-4e3d-94c0-6b84c48f6faf.png"/>
Before the tariffs take effect, corporate inventories are rapidly increasing:
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9b78709b-ce0e-4d45-a851-790dcda2077d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/9b78709b-ce0e-4d45-a851-790dcda2077d.png"/>
<h2>Executives' Concerns About Economic Recession</h2>
Apollo also listed quotes from some well-known corporate executives over the past week, reflecting their views on the current economic situation.
Southwest Airlines CEO Robert Jordan stated:
<blockquote>
“I don’t care whether you call it a recession; in this industry, that is a recession.”
</blockquote>
Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said:
<blockquote>
“Due to concerns about the economy, consumers are reducing the frequency of dining out, which is their main reason for saving money.”
</blockquote>
PepsiCo CFO Jamie Caulfield stated:
<blockquote>
“Compared to three months ago, our feeling about consumers may not be as good now.”
</blockquote>
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The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk

Charts from the team of Torsten Sløk, Chief Economist at Apollo, show that American consumers and businesses are facing pressure from tariffs, leading to a decline in new orders and capital expenditure plans, with the consumer confidence index dropping to historic lows. A recession is expected by the summer of 2025 due to the impact of tariffs and supply chain disruptions on economic activity. Business executives express concerns about the economic outlook, with the CEO of Southwest Airlines stating that the current situation is already a recession

- Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk's team illustrates how U.S. consumers and businesses are responding to tariffs, showing declines in new orders and capital expenditure plans.  
- Consumer confidence has hit a historic low, with families making early purchases to avoid price increases, which may deplete future spending power, while the tourism sector shows signs of slowing.  
- The analysis predicts a potential economic recession by summer 2025 due to tariff adjustments and supply chain disruptions, with significant impacts on the S&P 500 earnings expectations and corporate sentiments reflecting economic concerns.

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