Tesla Has Big Plans to Reaccelerate Sales. But Is a Turnaround Already Priced In?

For Tesla (TSLA 2.06%) and its shareholders, it's been a rough start to 2025. As of this writing, shares are down about 30% year to date. Even worse, the stock is down more than 40% from its 52-week high. With increasing economic uncertainty and persistently high interest rates affecting vehicle affordability, the company's automotive business is hurting. First-quarter automotive revenue fell 20% year over year. This was worse than Tesla's 8% year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adding to concerns, management refrained from providing guidance for vehicle deliveries this year, choosing to wait to see if the company has more clarity about its business when it reports its second-quarter results. But despite reporting poor first-quarter results, including a 71% year-over-year drop in earnings per share, the stock has largely been in an uptrend since the report. Indeed, shares were trading below $240 when Tesla reported results (more than $40 below where the stock is trading at the time of this writing). The stock's recovery from this level is likely because CEO Elon Musk made investors believe the company's upcoming product launches can help turn Tesla's fortunes around. After all, Musk said he'll be giving the company significantly more of his attention next month -- welcome news to shareholders who have watched him spend much of his time on President Trump's DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) initiative recently. With Musk planning to give Tesla's turnaround plans more attention in the coming weeks, is now a good time to buy the stock? Or are Tesla's efforts to revitalize its growth already priced in? Growth initiatives Just as Musk brings Tesla more of his attention next month, the company will be in the middle of several major projects that shareholders hope will provide a catalyst for sales and -- ultimately -- the stock. First and foremost, Tesla said in its first-quarter earnings call that it expects to be "selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin." This is a key step in the company's plans to roll out a more substantial autonomous ride-sharing network across multiple geographies. Over the long haul, the company says customers will be able to deploy their own vehicles in the network and participate in revenue sharing from the service. Additionally, Tesla plans to launch new, more affordable models this year. With high interest rates making new cars less affordable than they were several years ago, lower prices could help accelerate sales. Tesla said in its first-quarter update that its plans to begin production of these vehicles in the first half of 2025 are on track. Even more, Tesla has plans in place to make these investments capital-efficient. "These vehicles will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms and will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup," Tesla said in its first-quarter update. This approach, management explained, will enable the company to increase production of these vehicles in an efficient manner. Further, management said it should help the company grow production more than 60% over 2024 volume before the company needs to invest in new production lines. A risky stock Even with these key growth initiatives and more of Musk's attention, it's difficult to argue that Tesla stock is a good buy today. Shares trade at about 160 times earnings as of this writing. With a valuation like this, shares could trade sharply lower if strong, double-digit profit growth fails to materialize over the next year or two. Further, Tesla will need to grow earnings at double-digit rates not just for a few years, but probably for a decade and beyond, to live up to the stock's current valuation. For this reason, investors should think carefully before they buy the stock after its post-earnings move higher. Tesla's turnaround may already be priced in.