Five Key Highlights of Domestic Data During the May Day Holiday

Core Views Travel: Residents' willingness for domestic long-distance travel is rising. 1) During this year's May Day holiday, the demand for long-distance travel among residents significantly increased. From April 30 to May 3, the total inter-regional flow exceeded 1.1 billion, with an average daily flow of 282 million, showing a marked increase compared to the same period in 2019 and 2024. 2) Self-driving remains the main mode of road travel. 3) From April 30 to May 3, the national migration scale index was 1158.69, significantly higher than the levels in 2021, 2023, and 2024, with increases of 15.60% and 21.41% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively. Tourism: Domestic tourism performed well, with a clear willingness to upgrade consumption in fourth-tier cities and below. 1) Compared to last year, domestic tourism and outbound tourism showed significant year-on-year growth, but domestic tourism performed better than outbound tourism compared to 2019. For outbound tourism, flights to nearby East Asia and Southeast Asia accounted for a high proportion. In terms of single outbound destination choices, Japan and South Korea ranked at the top, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.52% and 17.16%, respectively. Thailand ranked third but saw a decline in year-on-year growth, recording -17.56%. Vietnam ranked seventh but showed a significant increase in year-on-year growth, recording 72.22%. 2) The "May Day Travel Forecast Report" released by Trip.com shows that this year's holiday tourism consumption exhibits three main characteristics: "long-distance explosion, cross-border mutual warming, and county-level counterattack." On May 5, Qunar released the "Most Popular May Day Travel Report," indicating that the willingness of residents in small cities to upgrade consumption has increased, and the significant year-on-year growth in reverse tourism has become a major highlight of this year's May Day holiday. 3) From the tourism numbers and consumption situation in some regions, this year's May Day holiday saw rapid year-on-year growth in both tourist numbers and consumption. Film Market: Both quantity and price have declined, with poor film consumption in first-tier cities and the best performance in second-tier cities. 1) In terms of "quantity," as of May 3, the total box office for the holiday period was only 515 million, with an average daily box office of only 172 million. Even if the box office for the next two days remains at 172 million, the box office for the May Day holiday in 2025 will be less than 900 million, significantly lower than last year's 1.528 billion. In terms of "price," as of May 3, the national average ticket price was only 39.52 yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year compared to 2024 and down 9.19% compared to the same period in 2019. 2) As of May 3, the highest box office share during this May Day holiday was in second-tier cities, reaching 226 million, followed by fourth-tier cities at 106 million, and the least in first-tier cities, with only 86 million. Consumption: "Trade-in for new" consumption momentum is strong. 1) Consumer promotion policies combined with holiday effects have led to significant growth in retail and dining consumption. 2) The trade-in for new policy under government subsidies, combined with the golden consumption period of May Day, has resulted in considerable growth in the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances Real Estate Market: Overall, a series of real estate promotional measures during the May Day holiday have somewhat boosted market confidence, with holiday property sales area slightly better than last year, in the order of first-tier > second-tier > third-tier. The willingness of residents in first-tier cities to purchase homes has significantly recovered, but the wait-and-see sentiment remains strong in cities below the first tier, and whether this can be converted into sustainable actual transaction volume remains to be further observed. Main Text I. Travel: Residents' Willingness for Domestic Long-Distance Travel Soars During this May Day holiday, the demand for long-distance travel among residents has significantly increased. From April 30 to May 3, the total inter-regional flow exceeded 1.1 billion, with an average daily flow of 282 million people, which is significantly higher compared to the same period in 2019 and 2024. Specifically, it has increased by 26.79% and 5.51% compared to 2019 and 2024, respectively. In terms of travel modes, the average daily passenger volume for railways, highways, waterways, and shipping were 19.78 million, 2.58435 million, 1.6875 million, and 2.225 million, respectively, showing increases of 39.01%, 37.00%, 10.87%, and 28.58% compared to the same period in 2019, and increases of 10.71%, 4.62%, 37.43%, and 13.60% compared to 2024. Among these, highway passenger flow accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 91.6%. Self-driving remains the main mode of road travel. Continuing to split the operational and non-operational passenger transport on highways reveals that the average daily travel volume of non-operational small passenger cars on highways and ordinary national and provincial roads reached 222.535 million, an increase of 20.88% and 4.50% compared to the same period in 2019 and 2024, respectively. The average daily passenger volume for operational road transport was 35.9 million, a decrease of 21.01% compared to 2019, but an increase of 5.43% compared to 2024. The continuous increase in non-operational passenger car travel indicates that, with the popularization of cars in households, public travel habits are undergoing structural changes, and self-driving is gradually becoming the main force. In terms of urban travel, from April 30 to May 3, the average daily passenger volume of subways continued to rise compared to the same period in 2019 and 2024, reaching 135.62% of the level in 2019, with a growth of 5.95% compared to 2024. The average daily passenger volume of subways during this May Day period was 84.0995 million. From April 30 to May 3, the average congestion delay index for 100 cities was 1.53, significantly lower than the 1.55 recorded in the same period of 2024. The congestion delay index in first-tier cities was lower than the national average, recorded at 1.49. On one hand, the proportion of people returning home from first-tier cities during the May Day holiday is relatively high, often belonging to net out-migration areas, resulting in naturally lower traffic congestion in the city. On the other hand, this may also be related to the transportation department's advance assessment and strengthened deployment. From April 30 to May 3, the national migration scale index was 1158.69, significantly higher than the levels in the same periods of 2021, 2023, and 2024, with increases of 15.60% and 21.41% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively. The May Day holiday coincides with the peak travel season between spring and summer, with residents more willing to travel long distances for outings, family visits, and friends. From April 30 to May 3, looking at the net migration scale of key provinces and cities, the population net migration scale index for Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hebei, and Shandong reached 23.63, 19.55, 27.94, 26.35, and 17.73 respectively. The cumulative net migration scale index for Guangdong, Shanghai, and Beijing was relatively larger, reaching 37.03, 43.37, and 51.01 respectively, while Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin also showed a net migration outflow. It can be seen that provinces with net population inflow are mostly economically underdeveloped areas with a higher number of migrant workers, primarily returning home for family visits during the National Day holiday; while provinces and cities with net population outflow are all located in developed coastal areas, which are gathering places for migrant workers. II. Tourism: Domestic travel performs well, and there is a clear willingness to upgrade consumption in fourth-tier cities and below Compared to last year, domestic travel and outbound travel have seen significant year-on-year growth, but domestic travel has performed better than outbound travel compared to 2019. According to the Civil Aviation Administration's operational report, from April 28 to May in 2025, the national civil aviation executed nearly 112,000 passenger flights, with an average daily flight volume of 16,074, an increase of 6.4% compared to 2024 and an increase of 12.6% compared to 2019. Among them, domestic flights accounted for 96,515, an increase of 18.3% compared to 2019; international flights totaled 13,399, an increase of 22% compared to 2024 and a decrease of 9% compared to 2019. In terms of outbound travel, flights to nearby East Asia and Southeast Asia account for a high proportion. In terms of single outbound destination choices, Japan and South Korea ranked at the top, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.52% and 17.16% respectively. Thailand ranked third, but its year-on-year growth rate declined, recording -17.56%. Vietnam ranked seventh, but its year-on-year growth rate increased significantly, recording 72.22%. The National Immigration Administration stated that during this year's May Day holiday, the average daily entry and exit personnel at national ports will reach 2.15 million, an increase of 27% compared to the same period last year. From the perspective of outbound travel regional proportions, Southeast Asia, East Asia, Europe, West Asia, Oceania, and North America ranked higher, accounting for 38.55%, 37.82%, 10.99%, 3.9%, 2.51%, and 2.04% respectively The "May Day Travel Forecast Report" released by Trip.com shows that this year's holiday tourism consumption presents three major characteristics: "long-term explosion, cross-border bilateral warming, and county-level counterattack." Driven by the "take 4 days off and rest for 11" leave strategy, the proportion of intercity accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, and consumption of high-star hotels in county markets has surpassed that in high-tier cities. Inbound travel orders have surged by 173% year-on-year, as the whole nation embarks on a "new way of holiday economy." From the supply side, destinations have completed supporting upgrades through the "micro-vacation complex + intangible cultural heritage revitalization" model, while on the demand side, consumers have reconstructed their travel decision-making models with "off-peak travel and in-depth experiences." Under the "dual resonance of supply and demand," the trend of tourism sinking is more evident this May Day, with consumption upgrading in fourth-tier cities and below significantly surpassing that in third-tier cities and above. The market's tourism enthusiasm has increased by 25% year-on-year, with a growth rate 11 percentage points higher than that of high-tier cities. Additionally, the "spending power" of small towns has emerged, with high-star hotel consumption proportion crushing that of high-tier cities. The increased willingness of residents in small towns to upgrade their consumption and the significant year-on-year growth of reverse tourism have become the main highlights of this year's May Day holiday. On May 5th, Qunar released the "Most Popular May Day Travel Report," which shows that on the Qunar platform, the total number of purchases for "the first flight ticket in life" has increased by 30% compared to last year. The growth rate is highest among university students aged 19-22 and elderly travelers aged 60 and above; residents of third-tier cities and below have a higher growth rate than those in first-tier cities. Residents of small towns and the "new silver-haired" group are the strongest consumers willing to upgrade this May Day; reverse travel, culture + tourism, and scenic spot ticket bookings have increased by over 40% year-on-year. More than 23 music festivals nationwide have driven hotel bookings in popular cities to increase by over three times; residents of first-tier and new first-tier cities are more inclined to explore hidden gem counties. Qunar users' hotel bookings span 1,230 counties nationwide, covering nearly 90% of the counties in the country. In many places, inbound travel has increased by more than double. From the perspective of tourism numbers and consumption in some regions, this year's May Day holiday has seen rapid year-on-year growth in both tourist numbers and consumption. 1) Jiangsu: In the first three days of the holiday, A-level scenic spots and key rural tourism villages in the province received a total of 5.6574 million visitors, with total consumption reaching 2.095 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17.8% and 17.2%, respectively 2) Gansu: Rural tourism received 3.346 million visitors, with consumption of 1.154 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 18.5% and 29.81%, respectively. 3) Heilongjiang: In the first three days of the holiday, 9.215 million visitors were received, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, with ice and snow tourism transitioning to ecological tourism. The trend of reverse tourism is evident, with county-level scenic spots such as Wudalianchi and Jingpo Lake gaining popularity, and homestay bookings increasing by over 30%. III. Film Market: Decline in Both Volume and Price, Poor Movie Consumption in First-tier Cities, Best Performance in Second-tier Cities The May Day film market shows a characteristic of "decline in both volume and price." From the volume perspective, as of May 3, the total box office for the holiday period was only 515 million yuan, with an average daily box office of only 172 million yuan. Even if the box office for the next two days is also 172 million yuan, the box office for the May Day period in 2025 will be less than 900 million yuan, significantly lower than last year's 1.528 billion yuan. From the price perspective, as of May 3, the national average ticket price was only 39.52 yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year compared to 2024, and down 9.19% compared to the same period in 2019. Regionally, the differentiation is intensifying, with poor movie consumption in first-tier cities and the best performance in second-tier cities. As of May 3, the highest box office share during this May Day holiday was in second-tier cities, reaching 226 million yuan, followed by fourth-tier cities at 106 million yuan, and the least in first-tier cities, with only 86 million yuan. First-tier cities had the highest average ticket price at 46.89 yuan, while the average ticket price in other cities was below 40 yuan. The number of moviegoers in second-tier cities was also the highest, currently reaching 5.659 million, while first-tier cities had the least, not exceeding 2 million. According to data from the Lighthouse Professional APP, as of 10 a.m. on May 5, the film with the highest box office share during the National Day period (including pre-sales) was "Dumpling Queen," with a cumulative box office of 194 million yuan; followed by "Gold Hunting Game," with a cumulative box office of 120 million yuan. IV. Consumption: "Trade-in" Consumption Momentum is Strong The supply of daily necessities is sufficient, and prices are stable. According to the Ministry of Commerce's big data monitoring, on the eve of the May Day holiday, the trading volume of fruits, meat, eggs, and vegetables in 200 large agricultural and sideline product wholesale markets nationwide increased by 1.9%, 1.8%, 0.8%, and 0.6%, respectively, compared to the previous week. As of April 29, the prices of grains, cooking oil, and pork were basically stable compared to a week ago, while the prices of vegetables, eggs, lamb, and beef slightly decreased Consumer spending policies combined with holiday effects lead to significant growth in retail and dining consumption. In Hubei Province, data from UnionPay Business shows that from May 1 to 2, the province's retail and dining sectors achieved a total transaction amount of 12.547 billion yuan, an increase of 6.35% compared to the same period in 2024. Among them, the retail sector and dining sector achieved transaction amounts of 11.259 billion yuan and 1.288 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.13% and 8.31%. Tianjin, data monitored by the Municipal Bureau of Commerce shows that 431 key commercial enterprises achieved sales of 300 million yuan on the first day, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. At the same time, 180 monitored dining enterprises saw their revenue and customer flow on the first day of the holiday increase by 5.7% and 17.1%, respectively. In addition, the five major industries in Hangzhou, including retail, dining, wholesale, accommodation, and entertainment, achieved a consumption amount of 4.016 billion yuan. The Yuwai 360 Bowl National Trend Food event in the key business district of Jiangbei District, Chongqing, achieved daily sales of over 400,000 yuan, while the Chengdu International Airport business district welcomed over 300,000 visitors daily, and the nearby outlet mall's single-day sales exceeded 20 million yuan. Furthermore, Sanya issued dining consumption vouchers and duty-free consumption vouchers during the May Day period, totaling 16 million yuan. Under policy subsidies, the old-for-new trade-in combined with the May Day consumption golden period shows considerable growth in the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances. On a national level, data from Suning.com shows that on the first day of the holiday, nationwide old-for-new sales increased by over 61% year-on-year, with store foot traffic increasing by 150% year-on-year. Zhejiang, Beijing, and Jiangsu became the regions with the most significant growth in trade-in consumption, with growth rates of 112.05%, 95.2%, and 83.73%, respectively. Influenced by returning home for family visits and the upgrading of quality home appliances, computers became a standout category on the first day of the May Day holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 213.29%. Regionally, Yancheng, Jiangsu issued 2 million yuan in automobile consumption vouchers, focusing on new energy vehicles; Shanghai expanded the scope of automobile trade-in subsidies, with foot traffic in car stores increasing by over 30%; and regions such as Ningxia and Guizhou held themed activities for old-for-new home appliances, releasing demand for green and smart consumption. Data from UnionPay Business in Hubei Province shows that from May 1 to 2, home appliance stores, electronic goods stores, and home improvement stores achieved transaction amounts that increased year-on-year by 24.84%, 35.26%, and 11.19%, respectively. As of May 2, the province's old-for-new automobile trade-in reached 99,200 vehicles, and the total sales volume of old-for-new 3C digital products, home appliances, kitchen and bathroom products, and electric bicycles reached 25.955 million units, driving consumption exceeding 46.6 billion yuan. V. Real Estate Market: Holiday real estate sales area slightly better than last year, first-tier > second-tier > third-tier Before the May Day holiday, multiple provinces and cities introduced real estate promotion and subsidy policies. On May 2, Suzhou City announced that during the "Suzhou Home Purchase Season" event (May 1, 2025 - June 30, 2025), a home purchase subsidy policy would be implemented throughout Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province. Families purchasing newly built commercial housing in Suzhou City (excluding talent housing, relocation housing, etc.) can enjoy a subsidy of 0.5% of the purchase contract amount (based on the amount of the online signed contract) After home-buying families obtain the real estate property certificate, the county-level city (district) where the purchased new house is located is responsible for issuing subsidies according to procedures. On April 30, the Wuhan Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau released new real estate policies, including increasing the loan limit for second homes to 1.2 million yuan, expanding the multi-child subsidy from the new urban area to the entire city of Wuhan, with subsidies of 60,000 yuan and 120,000 yuan for second and third children respectively; for selling old homes to buy new ones, the deed tax for purchasing new homes will be fully subsidized, among other measures. Tongling City in Anhui Province held a promotional event for commercial housing during the "May Day" holiday, issuing home purchase vouchers that can be claimed in real name for 10,000 yuan per voucher, with a limited time for redemption, combined with discounts from real estate companies. Voucher holders must complete the order and sign the purchase agreement between April 28 and May 31, 2025, and redeem on-site at the sales office; otherwise, it will be invalid after the deadline. Overall, a series of real estate promotional measures during the May Day holiday have somewhat boosted market confidence, with holiday real estate sales area slightly better than last year, with first-tier cities > second-tier cities > third-tier cities. The willingness of residents in first-tier cities to purchase homes has significantly recovered, but the wait-and-see sentiment remains strong in cities below the first tier, and whether this can be converted into sustainable actual transaction volume remains to be further observed. Article authors: Zhang Jingjing, Luo Dan, Source: China Merchants Macro Jing Si Lu, Original title: "China Merchants Macro | Five Major Highlights of Domestic Data During the May Day Holiday" Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at their own risk