Unlike Goldman Sachs' caution, JPMorgan traders are more optimistic about U.S. stocks.
According to reports, JPMorgan traders expect that with the activation of CTA strategies and accelerated stock buybacks, the S&amp;P 500 index will first hit 6,000 points and outline a specific roadmap.
As of the close on May 5, the S&amp;P 500 index was at 5,650 points, leaving less than 10% upside to JPMorgan's expected 6,000 points.
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At the same time, JPMorgan also warned that if the S&amp;P 500 index hits 6,000 points, it may represent a recent peak, after which they hold a pessimistic view on the mid-term outlook.
JPMorgan's reasoning is that while trade war rhetoric may not escalate, tariff negotiations are still ongoing, tariffs remain high, and trade agreements are still being negotiated, outlining a specific roadmap for a drop to 5,000 points.
<h2>JPMorgan: S&amp;P May First Hit 6,000 Points</h2>
JPMorgan traders outlined the possible path for the S&amp;P 500 index to reach 6,000 points:
<blockquote>
Current bull market assumptions continue to advance → followed by a short squeeze, with Russell 2000, retailers, and high-beta cyclical stocks performing well → the dollar continues to strengthen → leading to poor performance in emerging markets and developed international markets, with funds flowing back to the U.S. → driving up the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors.
</blockquote>
JPMorgan stated that if the above events occur, with the activation of CTA strategies and accelerated stock buybacks, as well as retail investors buying in, the S&amp;P 500 index could exceed 5,800 points, while hedge funds are forced to enter the market, pushing the S&amp;P 500 index to challenge 6,000 points.
Some investors have been waiting for retail investors to capitulate as a signal for the market to bottom, but retail behavior is a continuation of the recent buying trend, with net inflows in April reaching a historical high.
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JPMorgan's market intelligence department also believes that the S&amp;P 500 index hitting 6,000 points is more likely, as the market may overshoot, and earnings season may perform better than expected, with tariff-related news likely to continue to develop positively.
<h2>Mid-term Bear Market After 6,000 Points</h2>
JPMorgan traders warned that if the market hits 6,000 points, it may represent a recent peak, after which they hold a pessimistic view on the mid-term outlook. Traders stated:
<blockquote>
I do agree with the current general view on an economic recession, and we will see significant declines in hard data such as non-farm employment and retail sales in the next 1-2 months.
Once we see economic deterioration, the narrative will become important, with the two most likely narratives being:
(i) Tariffs remain high, and trade agreements are still under negotiation;
(ii) Multiple agreements have been signed, and an economic soft landing can be seen as a temporary phenomenon.
</blockquote>
They believe the first scenario is the most likely to occur, as although tariff negotiations signal good progress, the likelihood of signing an agreement before the 90-day tariff suspension deadline is low. This could become a significant resistance for the US stock market.
Overall, JPMorgan Chase believes that the market may retest the lows. As the market declines, the earnings per share expectations for the S&amp;P 500 index may be revised downward.
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6062d83c-2581-45b1-aeb0-ed26bf188a02.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/6062d83c-2581-45b1-aeb0-ed26bf188a02.jpeg"/>
However, if large tech stocks can perform well, the S&amp;P 500 index may remain above the 5000-5150 range.
JPMorgan Chase traders also outlined the fastest path for the S&amp;P 500 index to potentially drop to 5000 points, which would result from a significant deterioration in macro data (non-farm payrolls below 50,000) and unresolved trade relations.
The specific path may be:
<blockquote>
Macroeconomic data weakens immediately (services ISM below 50; retail sales month-on-month negative) → important trade relations remain unresolved → industry tariffs on healthcare and semiconductors exceed expectations, such as 50%-100%
</blockquote>

JPMorgan Chase expects that, driven by factors such as the activation of CTA strategies and accelerated stock buybacks, the S&P 500 index will first aim for 6,000 points. However, if investors hold a pessimistic view on the medium-term outlook under high tariffs, the market may retest lower levels afterward. JPMorgan Chase agrees with the current widespread view on an economic recession and anticipates a significant decline in hard data such as non-farm employment and retail sales in the next 1-2 months

- Morgan Stanley traders are more optimistic about U.S. stocks compared to Goldman Sachs, predicting the S&P 500 could reach 6,000 points due to factors like activated CTA strategies and accelerated stock buybacks.  
- However, they warn that hitting this target may indicate a recent peak, with a pessimistic mid-term outlook due to ongoing high tariffs and unresolved trade negotiations, potentially leading to a drop to 5,000 points.  
- The path to 6,000 involves a continuation of the current bull market, but significant economic data deterioration could quickly shift the market sentiment.

Wallstreetcn

JPMorgan Chase traders "draw the line": US stocks first break 6000, then hit new lows!