The article "Post-Performance" summarizes the latest target prices and views of major institutions after JD.com announced its quarterly results

JD-SW (09618.HK) reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations. This morning, the stock opened 4.2% higher and reached a high of HKD 143.2 during the session, up 4.5%, and closed the morning session up 2.87% at HKD 140.7. The company announced its first-quarter results for the period ending March 31 after the market closed yesterday (13th), with net profit rising 52.7% year-on-year to RMB 10.89 billion, a year-on-year growth of 52.7%. Basic earnings per share were RMB 3.76, and basic earnings per American Depositary Share were RMB 7.51. Non-GAAP net profit increased 43.4% year-on-year to RMB 12.758 billion, exceeding the upper limit of RMB 11.47 billion predicted by a comprehensive survey of 16 brokerages. Non-GAAP EBITDA grew 27% to RMB 13.702 billion.

JD's first-quarter revenue rose 15.8% year-on-year to RMB 301.082 billion, surpassing the upper limit of RMB 295.921 billion predicted by a comprehensive survey of 16 brokerages. By business segment, JD Retail revenue increased 16.3% year-on-year to RMB 263.845 billion, while JD Logistics (02618.HK) revenue rose 11.5% year-on-year to RMB 46.967 billion. Revenue from new businesses, including food delivery, increased 18.1% year-on-year to RMB 5.753 billion.

【UBS: JD's consistent investment discipline makes food delivery losses manageable】

UBS pointed out that JD's strong performance in the first quarter and outlook for 2025, including the continued expansion of JD Retail's profit margins, accelerated growth in high-margin advertising revenue, and management's confidence in maintaining strong growth in gross merchandise volume, should alleviate market concerns about demand normalization in the second half of the year. The daily order volume for the food delivery business approached 20 million within about two months of operation, approximately one-third of Meituan's, or comparable to Ele.me. Although the food delivery business has the potential to become a new growth engine and complement JD's O2O business, its scale, speed, and financial impact remain uncertain. The strong competitive advantage established by Meituan indicates that future competition will be exceptionally fierce. The firm estimates that Meituan's investment in food delivery will be RMB 20 billion and RMB 15 billion over the next two years. Considering JD's consistent disciplined investment style and cost variability, losses are expected to be manageable. The firm lowered its earnings per share forecast for JD from this year to 2027 by 8% to 25%, with a target price reduced from HKD 261 to HKD 226, maintaining a "Buy" rating.

Citi stated that JD's first-quarter non-GAAP net profit exceeded expectations, which may be one of the motivations for JD to accelerate its food delivery business expansion this year. Management stated that the average daily order volume is close to 20 million, and although there is still room for improvement in operational experience and learning curves, the rapid improvement in initial performance exceeded expectations, with positive observations of user "retention" rates and effective cross-selling responses from JD Retail. Given the dynamic changes in the competitive landscape, JD did not provide guidance on food delivery business expenditures and their impact on group profits but reiterated that JD Retail will maintain double-digit revenue and profit growth this year. The firm raised its revenue forecast for JD from this year to 2027 by 2.7% to 3.4%, lowered JD's non-GAAP net profit forecast for this year by 0.5%, and raised related expectations for next year and the following years by 2.4% The target price for JD.com (JD.US) has been raised from $51 to $52, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for 2026. Based on reasonable valuation and commitment to shareholder returns, the "Buy" rating is maintained.

Morgan Stanley indicated that JD.com expects double-digit year-on-year growth for both overall and JD Retail revenue and profit guidance this year, which serves as a positive catalyst for the stock price. However, the company did not provide guidance on losses from its delivery business, which may lead to further downward adjustments in profit estimates for the remainder of the year. The firm has lowered its profit forecast for the company from this year to 2027 by 5% to 14%, reflecting investments in the delivery business. The target price for JD.com ADR has been reduced from $41 to $39, corresponding to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times for non-GAAP net profit in 2025, compared to Alibaba's e-commerce business and Pinduoduo's price-to-earnings ratios of 9 to 10.

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The latest comprehensive investment ratings and target prices from 11 brokerages are as follows:

The table below lists the investment ratings and target prices for JD-SW (09618.HK) from 5 brokerages:

Brokerage│Investment Rating│Target Price

UBS│Buy│HKD 261->HKD 226

Jefferies│Buy│HKD 250->HKD 257

Huatai Securities│Buy│HKD 192.42->HKD 199.61

HSBC Global Research│Buy│HKD 187

JP Morgan│Overweight│HKD 180

The table below lists the investment ratings and target prices for JD.com (JD.US) from 11 brokerages:

Brokerage│Investment Rating│Target Price

Jefferies│Buy│$64->$66

BOCI│Buy│$58->$62.41

UBS│Buy│$67->$58

Daiwa│Buy│$55->$57

Nomura│Buy│$55

Citi│Buy│$51->$52

Huatai Securities│Buy│$49.58->$51.24

HSBC Global Research│Buy│$48

JP Morgan│Overweight│$46

Citi│Outperform│$45

Morgan Stanley│Market Perform│$41->$39

Brokerage│Viewpoint

Jefferies│Strengthening the ecosystem releases synergistic effects

BOCI│Core business supported by stimulus plans, new business enhances overall participation expected to bring synergy

UBS│Quarterly results exceed expectations, food delivery in the future is key to driving stock price

Daiwa│JD Retail drives quarterly results exceeding expectations

Nomura│Mixed outlook for the year

Citi│JD Retail growth is strong, but visibility on food delivery impact is lacking

Huatai Securities│Focus on growth in new businesses like delivery

HSBC Global Research│Short-term focus on scale over profit

JP Morgan│First-quarter performance is expected to remain solid

Citi│Investment in food delivery brings uncertainty to profit margins in Q2 to Q4 Morgan Stanley | JD Retail's profitability is certain, while losses in food delivery bring uncertainty