<div id="readability-page-1">Nvidia (NVDA 4.12%) first reached a market cap of $3 trillion in June 2024. The giant GPU maker remained above the threshold throughout much of the next eight months before a steep sell-off this year. However, Nvidia just rejoined Apple (AAPL -0.28%) and Microsoft (MSFT 0.81%) in the $3 trillion club. Could it even become the first $4 trillion stock by 2026? <h2>Bouncing back</h2> What did Nvidia do to bounce back? Nothing on its own. To understand the stock's rebound, we need to first understand why it fell in the first place. One main culprit for Nvidia was the Trump administration's strict trade restrictions on exports of H20 GPUs to China. Nvidia announced it would take a $5.5 billion writedown in the first quarter of 2025 as a result. The White House's tariffs have also had a major impact on Nvidia's share price (as they have on many other stocks, too). In particular, the especially steep tariffs on imports from China and the retaliatory tariffs the country levied on U.S. imports concerned investors. With those factors causing Nvidia stock to fall, it makes sense that more encouraging news on the trade front helped spark a comeback. Initial signals in recent weeks by the Trump administration that Chinese tariffs would be lower helped. The recent 90-day pause on some of the tariffs provided more reason for optimism. <h2>The first $4 trillion stock</h2> While Nvidia is again in the $3 trillion club and even inched past Apple's market cap, Microsoft is closest to the $4 trillion mark. But could Nvidia jump past Microsoft and remain ahead of Apple? It's quite possible. Microsoft's shares trade at nearly 30 times forward earnings. Apple's forward earnings multiple is roughly 27. Nvidia is a hair behind with shares trading at 26.9 times forward earnings. All else being equal, this lower valuation arguably gives Nvidia more room to run than Microsoft and about the same amount as Apple. <div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgxNDgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd29tYW4taG9sZGluZy1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" width="700" height="393" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTgxNDgvZGF0YS1jZW50ZXItd29tYW4taG9sZGluZy1sYXB0b3AuanBnJnc9NzAw"/>Image source: Getty Images. </div> However, the growth prospects for these tech giants aren't equal. Wall Street expects Nvidia's earnings to soar around 47% this fiscal year and 29% in the next fiscal year. By comparison, analysts look for Apple's earnings to increase 18% this year and 9% next year, with Microsoft delivering earnings growth of almost 14% this year and nearly 13% next year. I think Nvidia is in a stronger position to become the first $4 trillion stock than either Apple or Microsoft. Others, such as Amazon and Google parent Alphabet, are also contenders, but I view them as dark horses in the race. <h2>By 2026?</h2> But could Nvidia achieve a $4 trillion market cap by 2026? I'm less confident about the timing. While investors are understandably excited about the lower threat of a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China, it seems likely that significant tariffs will still be imposed. These tariffs could still put a damper on Nvidia's business to some extent. A possible economic slowdown due to the tariffs could also cause some companies to curtail their investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which could negatively impact data center growth. If so, the demand for Nvidia's GPUs could slip. Nvidia's market cap would need to jump by roughly 25% to hit $4 trillion. I think this level of increase could be attained over the next 18 months or so. However, many variables are at play that could make the goal harder to achieve in such a relatively short time. I predict that Nvidia will be the first $4 trillion stock, but I'll leave the date by which it reaches the mark open. </div>

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. 

According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

Nvidia will release its first quarter report for fiscal year 2026 ending April 27, 2025. According to analysts surveyed by FactSet, Nvidia's first-quarter revenue is expected to increase 66% year-on-year to $43.3 billion; adjusted earnings per share will increase 44% year-on-year to $0.88. The growth rate of revenue and profits has slowed significantly compared with the same period last year. In the same period last year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262% year-on-year, and its adjusted earnings per share increased by 461% year-on-year.

NVIDIA Financial Results for Q4 Fiscal 2025

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Nvidia Just Rejoined Apple and Microsoft in the $3 Trillion Club. Could It Become the First $4 Trillion Stock by 2026?

- Nvidia reached a market cap of $3 trillion in June 2024 but faced a sell-off due to trade restrictions and tariffs impacting its stock.  
- Recent signals of lower tariffs from the Trump administration have contributed to Nvidia's stock rebound, positioning it competitively against Apple and Microsoft for future growth.  
- While Nvidia's earnings are expected to grow significantly, potential tariffs and economic slowdowns could hinder its path to a $4 trillion market cap by 2026, though it remains a strong contender.