Macquarie: Raises Alibaba-W target price to HKD 182.3, reiterates "Outperform" recommendation for buying on dips

Macquarie released a research report stating that based on SOTP valuation, it raised the target price for Alibaba-W by 3%, from HKD 176.3 to HKD 182.3, reiterating the "Outperform" rating and recommending buying on dips. At the same time, the firm lowered its adjusted EBITA forecasts for the fiscal years ending March 2026 and 2027 by 1% and 2%, respectively, to reflect the performance of segment profit margins. The report indicated that Alibaba benefited from stable market trends and improved AI monetization, with first-quarter customer management revenue (CMR) exceeding expectations, although some revenue was offset by investments in fast commerce. During the quarter, strong adoption by enterprises drove the growth momentum of cloud intelligence revenue. The firm expects this growth to accelerate further. Moreover, Macquarie noted that the pace of AI application across various industries has accelerated, including not only "pioneers" such as internet services and autonomous driving but also strong demand from traditional industries. The firm believes that Alibaba's core advertising in the first quarter benefited from better AI monetization and expects improvements in marketing efficiency and merchant adoption of the full-site solution to continue supporting a faster CMR trajectory. It now forecasts a CMR annual growth rate of 14% for the fiscal year 2026