
Has the Federal Reserve lost control over U.S. long-term bond yields?

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is approaching 5%, while the federal funds rate expectation is 50 basis points below its peak, indicating a significant rise in term premium. Reasons include an anticipated increase in U.S. Treasury supply and rising inflation expectations. Deutsche Bank believes that despite the rise in term premium, it is not considered high by long-term historical standards. Factors that may lead to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking above 5% in the future include fiscal easing and strong employment data. Gundlach believes that after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, long-term U.S. Treasury yields may rise and yield curve control may be restarted
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