The Federal Reserve's second and third in command "hint": Interest rates may not be lowered before September

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, heavyweight officials, including Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams, have hinted that policymakers may not be ready to lower interest rates before September due to the uncertain economic outlook. Federal Reserve "number three" Williams stated on Monday, "We won't be able to figure out what happened in June or July. This will be a process of gathering data, understanding the situation more clearly, and observing how things develop." The Federal Reserve's next three meetings will be held in June, July, and September. Investors currently expect less than a 10% chance of a rate cut when the Fed meets next on June 17-18. According to the pricing of federal funds futures, investors anticipate that the Fed will cut rates twice by 25 basis points each by the end of the year, which is fewer than the four cuts expected at the end of April. Atlanta Fed President Bostic also expressed a similar view on Monday, suggesting a reluctance to adjust rates for some time. Bostic stated that if the trade negotiations being conducted by the Trump administration drag on, "this will last into the summer, and in that case, we will actually have to wait a few months to know what the real impact is." Earlier on Monday, Bostic pointed out that policymakers need to wait "three to six months" to see how things develop. He indicated that trade negotiations could still advance more quickly, and tariff reductions might exceed expectations. He said, "In that case, we might be able to take some action earlier, because there may not be as much we need to do in managing price levels." Williams continued to emphasize that uncertainty is hindering not only policymakers but also businesses and households, as they find it difficult to predict how the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies will reshape the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve officials kept interest rates unchanged in early May, stating that tariffs have exacerbated uncertainty. Policymakers also see risks of rising unemployment and inflation. The Trump administration recently reached a temporary agreement with China to lower tariffs on various imported goods. Currently, negotiations with major trading partners are ongoing, and the 90-day reciprocal tariff suspension period has passed its halfway mark. Like many of his colleagues, Williams stated that the Fed can slowly assess new data. Although he acknowledged that inflation has been declining and the economy is close to full employment, he is still closely monitoring default rates and consumer spending willingness. He also described the current policy environment of the Fed as "slightly restrictive" and in good shape. Bostic specifically expressed concerns about inflation and public expectations for future price increases. Bostic stated, "Given the trajectory and responsibilities of our two mandates, I am very concerned about inflation, mainly because we see expectations changing in a troubling way." Federal Reserve number two, Vice Chairman Jefferson, also emphasized a wait-and-see attitude on Monday. He stated that the Fed must ensure that any potential price increases do not evolve into sustained inflation. Jefferson said, "Given the level of uncertainty we currently face, I think we should wait and see how policies evolve and their impacts." He added that monetary policy is in a "very good position." Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari also spoke on Monday, noting that the U.S. economy was on solid footing at the beginning of this year, and the Federal Reserve has made significant progress in reducing inflation. However, he stated that tariffs have thrown a "curveball" to policymakers, and currently, they can only remain on hold. Kashkari said, "We are grappling with a lot of uncertainty. We can only wait until we have more information."