According to the report from Goldman Sachs economists, it is expected that the RMB to USD exchange rate will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in three months, six months, and twelve months, respectively, indicating a potential appreciation of 3% over the next twelve months. The bank disclosed a list of Hong Kong and mainland listed companies that may benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, including the following Hong Kong stocks: GDS Holdings Limited-SW (09698), Zijin Mining (02899), China Jinmao (00817), Dongyue Group (00189), China Southern Airlines (01055), Baidu Group-SW (09888), China Feihe (06186), and Tencent Holdings (00700).
The criteria these companies must meet include: 1) Market capitalization and liquidity: Market capitalization exceeding USD 2 billion and average daily trading volume (ADVT) exceeding USD 5 million; 2) Industry and financial characteristics: Industries that rely on USD import costs, including aviation, (petroleum) chemicals, construction, staple foods, and tourism-related industries; or where USD debt accounts for more than 20%; 3) Overseas revenue exposure: Overseas revenue accounting for less than 30%; 4) Historical foreign exchange gains and losses: No foreign exchange gains during the RMB depreciation period in 2024; 5) Exchange rate correlation: Lower ranking in terms of return correlation with exchange rate fluctuations.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs also listed a list of Hong Kong and mainland listed companies that may underperform the market during RMB appreciation, including the following Hong Kong stocks: Haier Smart Home (06690), China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corporation (00857), Sino Biopharmaceutical (03933), ASMPT (00522), Yue Yuen Industrial (00551), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808), Shenzhou International (02313), and Minth Group (00425). The bank indicated that the criteria for selecting companies pressured by RMB appreciation include: 1) Market capitalization and liquidity: Listed market capitalization exceeding USD 2 billion and average daily trading volume exceeding USD 5 million; 2) Overseas revenue exposure: Overseas revenue accounting for more than 30%; 3) USD debt levels: USD debt accounting for less than 5%; 4) Historical foreign exchange gains and losses: No foreign exchange losses during the RMB depreciation period in 2024; 5) Exchange rate correlation: Higher ranking in terms of return correlation with exchange rate fluctuations

TCEHY

TCTZF

00700

BIDU

09888

Goldman Sachs released a research report, predicting that the Renminbi will appreciate by 3% in the next year, and listed potential companies that may outperform Hong Kong stocks, including GDS Holdings, Zijin Mining, China Jinmao, Dongyue Group, China Southern Airlines, Baidu Group, China Feihe, and Tencent Holdings. The screening criteria include market capitalization, liquidity, industry characteristics, and historical foreign exchange gains and losses. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also listed companies that may underperform the market, such as Haier Smart Home, China Petroleum, and United Pharmaceuticals

- Goldman Sachs economists predict the RMB/USD exchange rate will reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in three, six, and twelve months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year.  
- The report lists Hong Kong-listed companies likely to benefit from RMB appreciation, including Tencent Holdings and Baidu, based on criteria such as market capitalization and reliance on USD imports.  
- Conversely, companies like Haier Smart Home and China Petroleum may underperform during RMB appreciation, identified by factors including high overseas revenue exposure and low USD debt levels.

Zhitong

Tencent

Tencent Holdings Limited

TENCENT

Baidu

BIDU-SW

UNITED LAB

ZIJIN MINING

SHENZHOU INTL

MINTH GROUP

SINOTRUK

CNHTC-JNTC

DONGYUE GROUP

GDS-SW

CHINA SOUTH AIR

YUE YUEN IND

CHINA FEIHE

PETROCHINA

HAIER SMARTHOME

CHINA JINMAO

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs: Discloses potential list of stocks that may outperform Hong Kong stocks due to RMB appreciation, including Baidu Group-SW and Tencent Holdings Limited