The United States is going to impose a "remittance tax."

The "Big Beautiful" bill passed by the Trump administration in the United States plans to impose a 3.5% tax on international transfers to non-U.S. citizens starting January 1, 2026. This policy could have a significant impact on the economies of emerging market countries that rely on remittances, particularly in countries like India and the Philippines. Although China is the third-largest remittance-receiving country, its impact on GDP is relatively small. Barclays noted that the timing and final form of the bill's implementation are still uncertain, and therefore it has not been included in the baseline forecast