<div id="readability-page-1"><div><div>To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.<h4>Consumer Roars</h4>Please click here for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp NVDA.Note the following:<ul> <li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA is being used to illustrate the point.</li> <li>Investors are waiting for the release of King Nvidia earnings today after hours. Nvidia earnings will determine the near term direction of the stock market and the AI trade.</li> <li>The chart shows NVDA stock has consolidated in the lower half of zone 2.</li> <li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is neither overbought nor oversold going into earnings.</li> <li>After earnings, bulls expect NVDA stock to break above zone 2 and move into zone 1 shown on the chart. Bears expect NVDA to pull back to zone 3.</li> <li>As full disclosure, NVDA stock is in our ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $12.55.</li> <li>One of the concerns in the stock market has been dropping consumer confidence. The latest reading shows the consumer has roared back with renewed faith in President Trump. Here are the key points: <ul> <li>Consumer confidence came at 98.0 vs. 87.0 consensus.</li> <li>Consumer confidence surged by 12.3 points in the biggest monthly gain in four years.</li> <li>A separate measure of consumer expectations for the next six months moved up by the most in 14 years. The consumer is roaring back broadly across income groups and age.</li> <li>The trigger behind the consumer roaring back is President Trump agreeing to the greatest deal ever for China with almost nothing in return for the U.S. Consumers are addicted to China flooding the U.S. market with low cost goods. Just like addicts cannot understand the broader implications of their addiction, consumers do not understand that their addiction to Chinese goods is transferring wealth from the U.S. to China and helping China towards its goal of overthrowing the U.S. as the world's superpower.</li> <li>The data shows that consumers, especially Republicans, now have renewed faith in President Trump because he struck a deal with China to keep shelves full of cheap Chinese goods.</li> </ul> </li> <li>In our analysis, the rise in consumer confidence is a significant positive for the stock market in the short term, but the trigger behind the rise is a significant negative for the U.S. in the longer term. Prudent investors should note that the reprieve for China is only for 90 days. The consensus on Wall Street is that President Trump will chicken out, and China will maintain its greatest deal ever. Wall Street even has a name for the trade: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). In our analysis, prudent investors should not be so sure of TACO – there is a fairly high probability that Trump will hold out for a better deal than the provisional deal. If Trump holds out for a better deal, the stock market may experience another dip</li> <li>FOMC minutes will be released today at 2pm ET and may be market moving.</li> </ul><h4>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Tesla Inc (TSLA), and NVDA.In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (META).In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).<h4>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).<h4>Bitcoin</h4>Bitcoin is range bound.<h4>Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.<h4>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. 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NVDA

Investors are closely watching Nvidia's earnings report, which is expected to influence the stock market and AI trade. Consumer confidence has surged to 98.0, the highest monthly gain in four years, largely due to renewed faith in President Trump following a deal with China. While this rise in confidence is positive for the short-term market, concerns about long-term implications for the U.S. economy persist. Money flows are positive for major tech stocks, and investors are advised to maintain long-term positions while considering protective strategies.

- The article discusses the impact of Nvidia's upcoming earnings on the stock market and consumer confidence, highlighting a significant surge in consumer sentiment attributed to President Trump's trade deal with China.  
- It notes that while this rise in confidence is positive for the short term, it poses long-term risks for the U.S. economy due to reliance on low-cost Chinese goods.  
- Additionally, the article advises investors to consider protective strategies and emphasizes the importance of cash reserves for seizing future opportunities.

Market Direction To Be Driven By Nvidia Earnings, Consumer Roars Back With Renewed Faith In Trump