According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that the recent rush to install in the industrial chain has officially ended. Since mid-May, the production scheduling in the module segment has begun to decline significantly, with prices continuing to fall, although the rate of decline slowed down last week. According to Infolink statistics, the actual output in May was approximately 58GW, lower than the production scheduling plan at the beginning of the month, with June's production scheduling expected to be around 53GW, a month-on-month decline of about 10%. Historically, June and July are usually relative low points for production scheduling, with some recovery expected after August. With the SNEC exhibition approaching, attention to new photovoltaic technologies has increased, focusing on materials (high copper paste), BC technology, and the relatively elastic silicon material segment and battery cells.
<h2>CICC's main viewpoints are as follows:</h2>
The decline in industrial chain prices has slowed, but there is still some pressure ahead
The recent rush to install in the industrial chain has officially ended. Since mid-May, the production scheduling in the module segment has begun to decline significantly, with prices continuing to fall, although the rate of decline slowed down last week. According to Infolink statistics, the actual output in May was approximately 58GW, lower than the production scheduling plan at the beginning of the month, with June's production scheduling expected to be around 53GW, a month-on-month decline of about 10%. Historically, June and July are usually relative low points for production scheduling, with some recovery expected after August. Focus on the operational pressure of enterprises in June and July, as well as the implementation of mechanism electricity prices (which affects whether demand can recover after August).
In a weak beta of the main industrial chain, focus on new technology alpha segments
With the SNEC exhibition approaching, attention to new photovoltaic technologies has increased, coupled with rising silver prices. Focus on leading companies in paste materials (high) copper paste, such as Dike Co., Ltd. and Juhe Materials; also pay attention to Aiko Solar, which has seen an increase in bidding volume and highlighted gross profit advantages in BC technology; consider the silicon material segment and battery cells with relatively elastic beta recovery.
Photovoltaic auxiliary material industrial chain
Due to the decline in module production scheduling, glass inventory days have continued to rise, and prices have fallen, while inverter production scheduling is expected to grow in Q2. In terms of glass, due to the continuous decline in module production scheduling, glass demand is sluggish. Last week, glass prices fell by 0.5 yuan per square meter, and inventory days continued to rise, with last week's inventory days at approximately 29.72 days, a month-on-month increase of 1.94%. I expect that glass inventory days may continue to rise in June.
In terms of film, it is recommended to pay attention to the second growth curve of film companies, such as HIUV's automotive materials business, which is expected to ramp up in 2025. In terms of inverters, the demand for large-scale solar storage is resilient, with large-scale solar storage blooming in markets such as Europe, India, and the Middle East. I am optimistic about leading companies in large-scale solar storage inverters. Additionally, Q2 is the traditional peak season for household storage inverters, and demand in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to XINYI SOLAR in the glass sector, HIUV in the film sector, and Sineng in the inverter sector.
Risk factors
Photovoltaic demand may fall short of expectations, supply-side reforms may not meet expectations, and there are risks related to trade policies

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CICC released a research report indicating that the price decline in the photovoltaic industry chain has slowed, but it still faces pressure. The actual output in May was about 58GW, with a significant drop in module production, and it is expected to be 53GW in June. June and July are typically low points for production, with recovery expected after August. As the SNEC exhibition approaches, attention to new photovoltaic technologies is increasing, focusing on high copper paste materials, BC technology, and the silicon material segment. Demand for glass is sluggish, prices are declining, and inventory days are increasing

Zhitong

Aiko Solar

XINYI SOLAR

HIUV

Sineng

DKEM

Penghua CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF

CICC: Weakening photovoltaic demand raises concerns about off-season pressure, new technologies welcomed at SNEC