The risk of disruption in the maritime transportation of Middle Eastern oil has increased, shocking the tanker market and driving shipping stocks up

On Friday, Israel's overnight airstrikes on Iran led to an increase in freight rates and tanker inventories, as traders and investors anticipated potential disruptions to the maritime transport of large quantities of oil globally, stimulating a rise in shipping stocks. According to media reports, data from brokerage firm Marex Group Plc showed that forward freight agreements (betting on the future cost of Middle Eastern crude oil transported to Asia) surged by 15% in July, reaching USD 12.83 per ton. Later that day, the increase in forward freight agreements was reduced to about 12%. Benchmark tanker freight rates soared. Shipping brokers and shipowners indicated that actual charter rates also rose in tandem. Many participants in the freight market stated that many companies are currently choosing not to charter tankers temporarily to observe the situation's development. According to CCTV News, in the early hours of the 13th local time, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Subsequently, Iran began to retaliate. Global Times cited media reports stating that the Israeli city of Tel Aviv was attacked, including 10 nuclear facilities. The Israel Defense Forces claimed that Iran launched over 100 drones at Israel. Data shows that approximately 10% of the global Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) fleet is stationed in the Middle East Gulf region, with about 20 VLCCs crossing the Strait of Hormuz daily. Anoop Singh, global shipping research director at Oil Brokerage Ltd., pointed out that if war breaks out in the Middle East, it will severely impact freight rates: "The market currently reflects a risk premium—shipowners will no longer send ships into the Persian Gulf as they did before." Shipping companies headquartered in Tokyo, such as Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, were the first to issue warnings after the attacks, urging vessels to remain vigilant in the relevant waters. In the Asian market, Cosco Shipping Holdings and China Merchants Energy Shipping saw their stock prices rise by over 5% on Friday. In the European market, Frontline Plc's stock in Oslo rose by as much as 7.9% before slightly retreating. Maersk's stock in Copenhagen closed up 4.12%, at DKK 12,630.00, with a cumulative increase of 5.51% this week. Hapag-Lloyd's stock in Frankfurt closed up 0.50%, at EUR 142.10, with a cumulative decline of 3.92% this week. Kuehne + Nagel's stock in Switzerland closed down 0.72%, at CHF 186.50, with a cumulative increase of 0.95% this week. Lars Barstad, CEO of Frontline Fleet Management, stated: "We are now clearly becoming more cautious in deciding whether to charter tankers departing from the Middle East."