Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly. Iran released negotiation signals, and oil prices fell but remained close to a 5-month high

On Wednesday, the market faced two major uncertainties - whether the United States will directly intervene in the Middle East conflict and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. U.S. stock futures rebounded after a decline, while U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, and gold saw slight pullbacks, and oil prices fell by about 1%. Concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz have arisen, and European natural gas prices have risen for six consecutive days. Here are the movements of core assets: The three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.2%. European stocks rose slightly, with German and French stocks up about 0.3%. The Asia-Pacific region saw little overall change, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index flat. The dollar index fell slightly by about 0.1%, the euro rose about 0.2%, and the yen rose about 0.1%. U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly across the board, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by more than 1 basis point. Spot gold remained basically flat, while spot silver rose about 0.3%. Both WTI and Brent crude oil continued to decline, with intraday losses expanding to 1%. European natural gas futures prices rose more than 1.4%, surpassing 40 euros per megawatt hour, the highest since early April this year. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by about 1.5%. Regarding the Middle East situation, according to CCTV News, the clashes between Iran and Israel have continued for six days, and Trump, in this context, convened a national security team meeting to discuss the escalating conflict. This move has sparked new speculation that the U.S. may soon directly participate in offensive actions. According to informed sources, the meeting took place in Washington on Tuesday and lasted for more than an hour. On the Federal Reserve front, Fed officials will announce the interest rate decision later on Wednesday. Currently, it is widely expected that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in June and July. Nevertheless, the market is still betting that the Fed will cut rates close to two times (each by 25 basis points) this year, with the first cut fully priced in for October. The CEO of Swiss EFG Asset Management stated that the situation the Fed faces is particularly uncertain, involving a variety of intertwined factors, including tariff issues, energy price fluctuations, rising geopolitical risks, and the expanding fiscal deficit in the U.S. Therefore, he believes the Fed has a strong incentive to adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting to see how these risks evolve before deciding on an appropriate policy path. In terms of the stock market, U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, with S&P 500 futures up about 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up about 0.3%, and Dow futures up about 0.1%. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas conflict last week, U.S. stocks have been fluctuating, with the VIX index, which represents market panic, breaking through the critical "20" warning line. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are suppressing investor sentiment. In this situation, the founder of Vital Knowledge stated that even without the Middle East situation, the market itself faces many risks. Now, under the compounded effects of geopolitical conflicts, U.S. stocks appear particularly vulnerable. He also pointed out that current U.S. stock valuations are already relatively high, leaving little room for error. Other potential risks include tariff policies, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling issue. The market has not yet fully accounted for the impact of all these uncertainties. In terms of commodities, after an initial rise of about 10%, Brent crude oil has started to fluctuate and is currently hovering around $76, with concerns that deep U.S. involvement in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies. Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices continue to decline, with intraday losses expanding to 1%. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz have arisen, and European natural gas prices have risen for six consecutive days, marking the longest increase in nearly four weeks.